Last week saw a wild ending to the first Road Course of the year as SVG and Austin Hill messed around to let Cup driver Kyle Larson around for the victory in the 17 car. This week we head to the first Short track of the year for the Xfinity Series where tempers could flair once more. I have picked 5 notable drivers to look at, 1 based on 2024 season stats, 1 based on Short track stats, 1 based on the last Richmond race, 1 based on their Richmond stats over the last 5 Xfinity seasons, and 1 based on the highest in 2024 points that wasn’t already picked. Here is a look at those 5 notable drivers 2024 season statistics, along with ranks among drivers in 2024 as well as ranking through 5 races since the Playoffs started in 2016. We will also highlight notable streaks accomplished through the year and at Richmond, 2023 Short track (under 1 mile) statistics and Richmond statistics from the past 5 Xfinity seasons.
Note: any driver in 4 straight Xfinity outlook articles is not in consideration for the next two, or any driver in 4 of 5 Xfinity outlook articles is not in consideration for the next one. This resets after they are put back into consideration.
This week not in consideration: Austin Hill (4 in a row, 2nd week), John Hunter Nemechek (4 in a row, 2nd week plus he’s not racing)
This week not in consideration: Austin Hill (4 in a row, 2nd week), John Hunter Nemechek (4 in a row, 2nd week plus he’s not racing)
2nd in Points – Chandler Smith
| Category | Statistic | 2024 Rank | ªRank Thru 5 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 3.8 | 2nd of 34 | T9th of 324 |
| Best Fin. | 1st | — | — |
| Worst Fin. | 8th | — | — |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 100% | T1st of 34 | T1st of 324 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 91.94% | 4th of 34 | 31st of 324 |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 107.0 | 2nd of 34 | 23rd of 324‡ |
| Wins | 1 | T2nd of 58 | T8th of 512 |
| Poles | 0 | T4th of 58 | T26th of 512 |
| Top 2’s | 2 | 2nd of 58 | T8th of 512 |
| Top 3’s | 3 | T1st of 58 | T3rd of 512 |
| Top 5’s | 4 | 2nd of 58 | T3rd of 512 |
| Top 10’s | 5 | T1st of 58 | T1st of 512 |
| Finish out Top 20¹ | 0 | T1st of 34 | T1st of 324 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 34 | T1st of 324 |
| Stage Wins | 3 | T1st of 58 | T2nd of 446* |
| Stage T10s | 6 | T6th of 58 | T48th of 446* |
| Stage Pts | 43 | 4th of 58 | T28th of 446* |
| Avg. Stage Fin.¹ | 8.8 | 6th of 34 | — |
| Playoff Pts² | 8 | 2nd of 58 | T6th of 446* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2016
¹Ranks of drivers to start 45% of races thru 5 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year/active streaks
- 3 straight Top 3 finishes (longest streak in Xfinity Series this year)
- 4 straight Top 5 finishes
- 6 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak, tied longest active streak in Xfinity Series)
- 5 straight Top 10 finishes this year (active streak, tied longest streak in Xfinity Series this year)
- 3 straight Stage Wins (longest streak in Xfinity Series this year and tied 7th longest streak in Xfinity Series all-time)
- 5 straight Stage T10’s
- Notable Richmond Streaks
- 1 straight Win (active “streak”)
- 2 straight Stage T10’s (active streak)
- 2023 Short track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 56 drivers)
- 4 Races, Avg. Finish 13.0(T14th), 95.74% of Laps ran in Top15(4th), Avg. Driver Rating 104.08(6th), Best 1st, Worst 36th, Laps Completed 93.47%, Led 8.41% of laps he ran, 1 Win, 0 Poles, 1 Top 3, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 1 Finish out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 1 Stage Win, 4.38 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Richmond Statistics
- 2023 Richmond Race
- Finished 1st, Started 8th, Led 83 laps(33.2%), Finished 1st in Stage 1 and 4th in Stage 2, ran 250 Laps in Top 15(100% of laps ran), had 138.3 Driver Rating (ranked 1st)
- Notable Richmond Statistics over last 5 years (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Richmond since 2019, 35 drivers)
- 1 Race
- 1.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 1st)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 1st
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 100% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks T1st)
- 138.3 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 1st)
- Led 33.2% of laps he’s run (% ranks 2nd)
- 1 Win, 100% (% ranks 1st)
- 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 1 Stage Win, 50.0% (% ranks T1st)
- 2 Stage T10’s, 100% (% ranks T1st)
- 8.5 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 1st)
Main Points & Outlook
– Chandler Smith is notable because of how he did in the Richmond race last year
– Last week at COTA Smith ran only 60% of his laps in the Top 15, but he was able to get 1 Stage Pt and finish 8th in the race
– This was his 1st finish out of the Top 5 this year, but he still has the 2nd best Avg. Finish this year (3.8) and the 6th best Avg. Stage Finish (8.8)
– He is currently on a 6 race Top 10 streak dating back to last year and holds the longest Top 3 streak of the year at 3 races
– He’s only ran 1 race at Richmond and thus his only streaks here are his 1 race Win “streak” and 2 straight Stage T10 streak
– In 4 Short track races last year he had the 6th best Avg. Driver Rating and 4.38 Stage Pts Per Stage, but he did have 1 DNF with 2 Top 5’s and a win
– Smith’s Short track win last year came at Richmond where he led 33% of the race, won Stage 1, ran all 250 laps in the Top 15, and had the best Driver Rating
– Last year is his only Xfinity Series start at Richmond so most of his Richmond ranks above are 1st
Outlook for this weekend
Chandler Smith finally finished out of the Top 5 last weekend, but he still ended up with a Top 10. This is bad news for the competition as we head to a track style he was decent at last year. At Short tracks he ran pretty well and if it weren’t for his 1 DNF would have had a great Avg. Finish, but he was able to pick up 1 Win. In fact, that win came here at Richmond and sine this is his only start here his stats are great. In summary the stats say to watch out for Smith this weekend, and with him now in JGR equipment I call him the favorite for the win.
– Chandler Smith is notable because of how he did in the Richmond race last year
– Last week at COTA Smith ran only 60% of his laps in the Top 15, but he was able to get 1 Stage Pt and finish 8th in the race
– This was his 1st finish out of the Top 5 this year, but he still has the 2nd best Avg. Finish this year (3.8) and the 6th best Avg. Stage Finish (8.8)
– He is currently on a 6 race Top 10 streak dating back to last year and holds the longest Top 3 streak of the year at 3 races
– He’s only ran 1 race at Richmond and thus his only streaks here are his 1 race Win “streak” and 2 straight Stage T10 streak
– In 4 Short track races last year he had the 6th best Avg. Driver Rating and 4.38 Stage Pts Per Stage, but he did have 1 DNF with 2 Top 5’s and a win
– Smith’s Short track win last year came at Richmond where he led 33% of the race, won Stage 1, ran all 250 laps in the Top 15, and had the best Driver Rating
– Last year is his only Xfinity Series start at Richmond so most of his Richmond ranks above are 1st
Outlook for this weekend
Chandler Smith finally finished out of the Top 5 last weekend, but he still ended up with a Top 10. This is bad news for the competition as we head to a track style he was decent at last year. At Short tracks he ran pretty well and if it weren’t for his 1 DNF would have had a great Avg. Finish, but he was able to pick up 1 Win. In fact, that win came here at Richmond and sine this is his only start here his stats are great. In summary the stats say to watch out for Smith this weekend, and with him now in JGR equipment I call him the favorite for the win.
3rd in Points – Cole Custer
| Category | Statistic | 2024 Rank | ªRank Thru 5 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 8.0 | 3rd of 34 | T29th of 324 |
| Best Fin. | 2nd | — | — |
| Worst Fin. | 16th | — | — |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 99.87% | T4th of 34 | T49th of 324 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 95.56% | 1st of 34 | 14th of 324 |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 99.06 | 3rd of 34 | 45th of 324‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T5th of 58 | T37th of 512 |
| Poles | 2 | T1st of 58 | T2nd of 512 |
| Top 2’s | 1 | T3rd of 58 | T19th of 512 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T5th of 58 | T35th of 512 |
| Top 5’s | 3 | T3rd of 58 | T8th of 512 |
| Top 10’s | 3 | T3rd of 58 | T35th of 512 |
| Finish out Top 20¹ | 0 | T1st of 34 | T1st of 324 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 34 | T1st of 324 |
| Stage Wins | 1 | T3rd of 58 | T22nd of 446* |
| Stage T10s | 7 | T4th of 58 | T30th of 446* |
| Stage Pts | 47 | 2nd of 58 | T19th of 446* |
| Avg. Stage Fin.¹ | 7.0 | 2nd of 34 | — |
| Playoff Pts² | 1 | T4th of 58 | T31st of 446* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2016
¹Ranks of drivers to start 45% of races thru 5 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year/active streaks
- 2 straight Poles (tied longest streak in Xfinity Series this year and tied 10th longest streak in Xfinity Series all-time)
- 3 straight Top 5 finishes (active streak)
- 5 straight Stage T10’s
- Notable Richmond Streaks
- 2 straight Top 3 finishes (2019.08-2019.27)
- 2 straight Stage T10’s (active streak)
- 5 straight Stage T10’s (2018.27 s2-2019.27 s2) (tied 6th longest streak in Xfinity Series at Richmond all-time)
- 2023 Short track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 56 drivers)
- 4 Races, Avg. Finish 7.75(4th), 96.12% of Laps ran in Top15(3rd), Avg. Driver Rating 113.55(2nd), Best 3rd, Worst 19th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 10.89% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 2 Poles, 1 Top 3, 3 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 3 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 1 Stage Win, 7.38 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Richmond Statistics
- 2023 Richmond Race
- Finished 5th, Started 22nd, Led 0 laps, Finished 5th in Stage 1 and 5th in Stage 2, ran 240 Laps in Top 15(96.0% of laps ran), had 105.3 Driver Rating (ranked 3rd)
- Notable Richmond Statistics over last 5 years (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Richmond since 2019, 35 drivers)
- 3 Races
- 3.0 Avg. Finish (Ranks 2nd)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 5th
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 98.67% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 4th)
- 122.83 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 3rd)
- Led 16.27% of laps he’s run (% ranks 4th)
- 1 Win, 33.33% (% ranks 3rd)
- 2 Top 3’s, 66.67% (% ranks 2nd)
- 3 Top 5’s, 100% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 1 Stage Win, 16.67% (% ranks 5th)
- 6 Stage T10’s, 100% (% ranks T1st)
- 7.5 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 4th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Cole Custer is notable because of how he did last year on Short tracks
– At COTA Custer was able to run 84% of his laps in the Top 15 and pick up 9 Stage Pts on his way to a nice 4th place finish
– In 2024 he has an 8.0 Avg. Finish and an even better 7.0 Avg. Stage Finish with all 17 of his 2024 ranks above being T5th or better
– He is currently on a 3 race Top 5 finish streak and this year he’s had a 5 straight Stage T10 streak at one point
– In terms of Richmond streaks he’s had a 2 race Top 3 finish streak in 2019 and is on a 2 straight Stage T10 streak
– At Short tracks last year he had the 4th best Avg. Finish, 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating, and had 3 Top 5’s with 7.38 Stage Pts Per Stage in 4 races
– At Richmond last year Custer ran 96% of his laps in the Top 15 and had the 3rd best Driver Rating, but he led 0 laps and finished 5th in both stages and the race
– In the last 5 years he’s ran 3 Xfinity Series races at Richmond with a win and a worst finish of 5th all while getting 7.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
Outlook for this weekend
Cole Custer may not have a win yet this year, but he’s off to a better start than he was last year when he won the championship. What may help these numbers even more is that this weekend is a Short track where he ran great and finished well last year, but he failed to get a win in 4 starts. However, this is Richmond where he’s won and finished no worse than 5th in his last 3 starts. In total the stats say to keep Custer on your short list of drivers who can win this weekend.
– Cole Custer is notable because of how he did last year on Short tracks
– At COTA Custer was able to run 84% of his laps in the Top 15 and pick up 9 Stage Pts on his way to a nice 4th place finish
– In 2024 he has an 8.0 Avg. Finish and an even better 7.0 Avg. Stage Finish with all 17 of his 2024 ranks above being T5th or better
– He is currently on a 3 race Top 5 finish streak and this year he’s had a 5 straight Stage T10 streak at one point
– In terms of Richmond streaks he’s had a 2 race Top 3 finish streak in 2019 and is on a 2 straight Stage T10 streak
– At Short tracks last year he had the 4th best Avg. Finish, 2nd best Avg. Driver Rating, and had 3 Top 5’s with 7.38 Stage Pts Per Stage in 4 races
– At Richmond last year Custer ran 96% of his laps in the Top 15 and had the 3rd best Driver Rating, but he led 0 laps and finished 5th in both stages and the race
– In the last 5 years he’s ran 3 Xfinity Series races at Richmond with a win and a worst finish of 5th all while getting 7.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
Outlook for this weekend
Cole Custer may not have a win yet this year, but he’s off to a better start than he was last year when he won the championship. What may help these numbers even more is that this weekend is a Short track where he ran great and finished well last year, but he failed to get a win in 4 starts. However, this is Richmond where he’s won and finished no worse than 5th in his last 3 starts. In total the stats say to keep Custer on your short list of drivers who can win this weekend.
4th in Points – Jesse Love
| Category | Statistic | 2024 Rank | ªRank Thru 5 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 11.4 | T5th of 34 | T56th of 324 |
| Best Fin. | 2nd | — | — |
| Worst Fin. | 20th | — | — |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 99.87% | T4th of 34 | T49th of 324 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 81.99% | 7th of 34 | 65th of 324 |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 97.18 | 5th of 34 | 52nd of 324‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T5th of 58 | T37th of 512 |
| Poles | 2 | T1st of 58 | T2nd of 512 |
| Top 2’s | 1 | T3rd of 58 | T19th of 512 |
| Top 3’s | 1 | T5th of 58 | T35th of 512 |
| Top 5’s | 1 | T7th of 58 | T63rd of 512 |
| Top 10’s | 2 | T9th of 58 | T82nd of 512 |
| Finish out Top 20¹ | 0 | T1st of 34 | T1st of 324 |
| DNF’s¹ | 0 | T1st of 34 | T1st of 324 |
| Stage Wins | 3 | T1st of 58 | T2nd of 446* |
| Stage T10s | 6 | T6th of 58 | T48th of 446* |
| Stage Pts | 38 | 6th of 58 | T38th of 446* |
| Avg. Stage Fin.¹ | 10.2 | 7th of 34 | — |
| Playoff Pts² | 3 | 3rd of 58 | T23rd of 446* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2016
¹Ranks of drivers to start 45% of races thru 5 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year/active streaks
- 2 straight Poles (tied longest streak in Xfinity Series this year and tied 10th longest streak in Xfinity Series all-time)
- 2 straight Top 10 finishes (active streak)
- 2 straight Stage Wins
- 3 straight Stage T10’s
- Notable Richmond Streaks
- none
- 2023 Short track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 56 drivers)
- 0 Races
- Richmond Statistics
- 2023 Richmond Race
- did not race
- Notable Richmond Statistics over last 5 years (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Richmond since 2019, 35 drivers)
- 0 Races
Main Points & Outlook
– Jesse Love is notable because of his 2024 stats
– Love was able to run 70% of his laps in the Top 15 last week at COTA en route to a respectable 6th place finish
– Through 5 races in his rookie year in the Xfinity Series he is tied for the 5th best Avg. Finish, has the most Stage Wins, and his worst 2024 Rank above is only T9th (2 Top 10’s)
– This year he had a 2 race Pole streak, 2 straight Stage Wins, and he is currently on a 2 race Top 10 streak
– He has ran 0 races here at Richmond in the Xfinity Series and thus has no streaks here
– Of the 4 Xfinity Short track races last year he ran 0 of them
– Love did not compete in the Xfinity Series race last year at Richmond
– He’s ran 0 races in his Xfinity Series career at Richmond
Outlook for this weekend
Jesse Love had a blazing hot start to his rookie Xfinity season but wasn’t able to get the finishes he deserved until this last 2 weeks as he is now on a 2 race Top 10 streak after COTA. Now we head to another unknown for him in the fact that he’s never raced an Xfinity Series car at a Short track and thus has never ran an Xfinity Series race here at Richmond. This week there is really no telling how he’ll do, but based on this years stats watch for him to run well with his finish being more of a mystery.
– Jesse Love is notable because of his 2024 stats
– Love was able to run 70% of his laps in the Top 15 last week at COTA en route to a respectable 6th place finish
– Through 5 races in his rookie year in the Xfinity Series he is tied for the 5th best Avg. Finish, has the most Stage Wins, and his worst 2024 Rank above is only T9th (2 Top 10’s)
– This year he had a 2 race Pole streak, 2 straight Stage Wins, and he is currently on a 2 race Top 10 streak
– He has ran 0 races here at Richmond in the Xfinity Series and thus has no streaks here
– Of the 4 Xfinity Short track races last year he ran 0 of them
– Love did not compete in the Xfinity Series race last year at Richmond
– He’s ran 0 races in his Xfinity Series career at Richmond
Outlook for this weekend
Jesse Love had a blazing hot start to his rookie Xfinity season but wasn’t able to get the finishes he deserved until this last 2 weeks as he is now on a 2 race Top 10 streak after COTA. Now we head to another unknown for him in the fact that he’s never raced an Xfinity Series car at a Short track and thus has never ran an Xfinity Series race here at Richmond. This week there is really no telling how he’ll do, but based on this years stats watch for him to run well with his finish being more of a mystery.
5th in Points – Riley Herbst
| Category | Statistic | 2024 Rank | ªRank Thru 5 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 16.8 | 12th of 34 | 127th of 324 |
| Best Fin. | 5th | — | — |
| Worst Fin. | 34th | — | — |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 98.79% | T16th of 34 | T120th of 324 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 86.96% | 5th of 34 | 52nd of 324 |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 98.12 | 4th of 34 | 48th of 324‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T5th of 58 | T37th of 512 |
| Poles | 0 | T4th of 58 | T26th of 512 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T8th of 58 | T65th of 512 |
| Top 3’s | 0 | T10th of 58 | T87th of 512 |
| Top 5’s | 1 | T7th of 58 | T63rd of 512 |
| Top 10’s | 2 | T9th of 58 | T82nd of 512 |
| Finish out Top 20¹ | 2 | T11th of 34 | T134th of 324 |
| DNF’s¹ | 1 | T18th of 34 | T149th of 324 |
| Stage Wins | 1 | T3rd of 58 | T22nd of 446* |
| Stage T10s | 9 | T1st of 58 | T6th of 446* |
| Stage Pts | 64 | 1st of 58 | 7th of 446* |
| Avg. Stage Fin.¹ | 4.6 | 1st of 34 | — |
| Playoff Pts² | 1 | T4th of 58 | T31st of 446* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2016
¹Ranks of drivers to start 45% of races thru 5 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year/active streaks
- 9 straight Stage T10’s (active streak, longest active streak in Xfinity Series and longest streak in Xfinity Series this year)
- Notable Richmond Streaks
- 2 straight Top 5 finishes (2021.25-2022.07)
- 3 straight Stage T10’s (active streak)
- 2023 Short track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 56 drivers)
- 4 Races, Avg. Finish 16.25(19th), 92.02% of Laps ran in Top15(6th), Avg. Driver Rating 95.73(10th), Best 4th, Worst 30th, Laps Completed 97.35%, Led 2.63% of laps he ran, 0 Wins, 0 Poles, 0 Top 3’s, 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10’s, 2 Top 15’s, 2 Finishes out of Top 20, 1 DNF, 0 Stage Wins, 4.25 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Richmond Statistics
- 2023 Richmond Race
- Finished 23rd, Started 4th, Led 27 laps(10.8%), Finished 2nd in Stage 1 and 3rd in Stage 2, ran 233 Laps in Top 15(93.2% of laps ran), had 101.5 Driver Rating (ranked 5th)
- Notable Richmond Statistics over last 5 years (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Richmond since 2019, 35 drivers)
- 6 Races
- 14.33 Avg. Finish (Ranks 15th)
- Best Finish: 5th, Worst: 34th
- Completed 98.4% of laps (% ranks 26th)
- 85.43% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 8th)
- 89.25 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 9th)
- Led 1.9% of laps he’s run (% ranks 9th)
- 0 Top 3’s
- 2 Top 5’s, 33.33% (% ranks T7th)
- 4 Top 10’s, 66.67% (% ranks 7th)
- 2 finishes outside Top 20, 33.33% (% ranks 18th)
- 1 DNF, 16.67% (% ranks 31st)
- 0 Stage Wins
- 6 Stage T10’s, 50.0% (% ranks T8th)
- 2.5 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 6th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Riley Herbst is notable because he’s 5th in points thru 5 races
– At COTA last week Herbst had a typical race for him as he ran 84% of his laps in the Top 15, but he was caught up in an overtime restart wreck that caused him to finish 34th
– In 2024 he has the most Stage T10’s (9), Stage Pts (64), and the best Avg. Stage Finish (4.6), but he also has as many finishes in the Top 10 as out of the Top 20 (2 each)
– The only streak he has this year is a very impressive one as he is on a 9 straight Stage T10 streak
– Before the last race at Richmond he was on a 2 race Top 5 streak here and he is currently on a 3 straight Stage T10 streak here
– Short tracks were a conundrum for him last year as he had the 6th best Laps in Top 15% but only had 19th best Avg. Finish with 2 Top 10’s in 4 races
– Last year at Richmond Herbst was having a great run as he ran 93% of his laps in the Top 15 and got 17 Stage Pts, but finished 23rd after Brandon Jones turned him late in the race
– He has ran 6 of the last 7 races here at Richmond and in those races has gotten 2 Top 5’s and 4 Top 10’s with just 1 DNF and 2.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
Outlook for this weekend
The start to 2024 has been a total conundrum for Riley Herbst as he’s been great in stages and ran pretty well, but his finishes haven’t been good for the most part. This is basically the same as how his Short track races went last year with good runs and not so good results at the end of the race. A great example of this is last year at Richmond as he ran great, but finished poorly. However, he’s been good overall here in the last 5 years. So, based on what the stats say expect Herbst to run well this weekend, but don’t bet on him finishing well.
– Riley Herbst is notable because he’s 5th in points thru 5 races
– At COTA last week Herbst had a typical race for him as he ran 84% of his laps in the Top 15, but he was caught up in an overtime restart wreck that caused him to finish 34th
– In 2024 he has the most Stage T10’s (9), Stage Pts (64), and the best Avg. Stage Finish (4.6), but he also has as many finishes in the Top 10 as out of the Top 20 (2 each)
– The only streak he has this year is a very impressive one as he is on a 9 straight Stage T10 streak
– Before the last race at Richmond he was on a 2 race Top 5 streak here and he is currently on a 3 straight Stage T10 streak here
– Short tracks were a conundrum for him last year as he had the 6th best Laps in Top 15% but only had 19th best Avg. Finish with 2 Top 10’s in 4 races
– Last year at Richmond Herbst was having a great run as he ran 93% of his laps in the Top 15 and got 17 Stage Pts, but finished 23rd after Brandon Jones turned him late in the race
– He has ran 6 of the last 7 races here at Richmond and in those races has gotten 2 Top 5’s and 4 Top 10’s with just 1 DNF and 2.5 Stage Pts Per Stage
Outlook for this weekend
The start to 2024 has been a total conundrum for Riley Herbst as he’s been great in stages and ran pretty well, but his finishes haven’t been good for the most part. This is basically the same as how his Short track races went last year with good runs and not so good results at the end of the race. A great example of this is last year at Richmond as he ran great, but finished poorly. However, he’s been good overall here in the last 5 years. So, based on what the stats say expect Herbst to run well this weekend, but don’t bet on him finishing well.
8th in Points – Justin Allgaier
| Category | Statistic | 2024 Rank | ªRank Thru 5 Races |
| Avg. Fin.¹ | 17.6 | 15th of 34 | T134th of 324 |
| Best Fin. | 8th | — | — |
| Worst Fin. | 29th | — | — |
| Completed Laps%¹ | 98.39% | 18th of 34 | 138th of 324 |
| Laps in Top15%¹ | 92.61% | 3rd of 34 | 26th of 324 |
| Avg. Driver Rating¹ | 96.9 | 7th of 34 | 54th of 324‡ |
| Wins | 0 | T5th of 58 | T37th of 512 |
| Poles | 0 | T4th of 58 | T26th of 512 |
| Top 2’s | 0 | T8th of 58 | T65th of 512 |
| Top 3’s | 0 | T10th of 58 | T87th of 512 |
| Top 5’s | 0 | T13th of 58 | T125th of 512 |
| Top 10’s | 2 | T9th of 58 | T82nd of 512 |
| Finish out Top 20¹ | 2 | T11th of 34 | T134th of 324 |
| DNF’s¹ | 1 | T18th of 34 | T149th of 324 |
| Stage Wins | 0 | T7th of 58 | T50th of 446* |
| Stage T10s | 8 | T2nd of 58 | T15th of 446* |
| Stage Pts | 46 | 3rd of 58 | 26th of 446* |
| Avg. Stage Fin.¹ | 7.6 | T3rd of 34 | — |
| Playoff Pts² | 0 | T7th of 58 | T45th of 446* |
ªSince Playoffs started in 2016
¹Ranks of drivers to start 45% of races thru 5 races
²Earned from races only, does not reflect penalties
*Stage racing started in 2017
‡Max Driver Rating is 150.0
- Notable Streaks this year/active streaks
- 8 straight Stage T10’s
- Notable Richmond Streaks
- 2 straight Wins (2020.24-2020.25) (tied 3rd longest streak in Xfinity Series at Richmond all-time)
- 5 straight Top 5 finishes (2019.08-2021.25) (tied longest streak in Xfinity Series at Richmond all-time)
- 2 straight Stage Wins (2020.24 s2-2020.25 s1) (tied longest streak in Xfinity Series at Richmond all-time)
- 3 straight Stage T10’s (active streak)
- 6 straight Stage T10’s (2019.27 s1-2020.25 s2) (tied 3rd longest streak in Xfinity Series at Richmond all-time)
- 2023 Short track Stats (Avg. Fin. and Driver Rating rank among drivers with 1+ Short track start, 56 drivers)
- 4 Races, Avg. Finish 5.25(1st), 85.8% of Laps ran in Top15(10th), Avg. Driver Rating 110.75(3rd), Best 1st, Worst 13th, Laps Completed 100%, Led 13.16% of laps he ran, 2 Wins, 0 Poles, 2 Top 3’s, 2 Top 5’s, 3 Top 10’s, 4 Top 15’s, 0 Finishes out of Top 20, 0 DNF’s, 2 Stage Wins, 5.13 Stage Pts Per Stage
- Richmond Statistics
- 2023 Richmond Race
- Finished 13th, Started 1st, Led 2 laps(0.8%), Finished 6th in Stage 1 and 9th in Stage 2, ran 228 Laps in Top 15(91.2% of laps ran), had 101.3 Driver Rating (ranked 6th)
- Notable Richmond Statistics over last 5 years (Ranks are of drivers with 1+ start this year and 1+ start at Richmond since 2019, 35 drivers)
- 7 Races
- 5.71 Avg. Finish (Ranks 4th)
- Best Finish: 1st, Worst: 14th
- Completed 100% of laps (% ranks T1st)
- 93.94% of Laps ran in Top15 (% ranks 5th)
- 116.13 Average Driver Rating (Ranks 4th)
- Led 17.2% of laps he’s run (% ranks 3rd)
- 2 Wins, 28.57% (% ranks 4th)
- 5 Top 5’s, 71.43% (% ranks 3rd)
- 7 Top 15’s, 100% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 finishes outside Top 20, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 0 DNF’s, 0.00% (% ranks T1st)
- 3 Stage Wins, 21.43% (% ranks 4th)
- 10 Stage T10’s, 71.43% (% ranks 6th)
- 4.14 Stage Pts Per Stage (Ranks 5th)
Main Points & Outlook
– Justin Allgaier is notable because of his stats at Richmond in the last 5 Xfinity seasons
– Last week at COTA Allgaier ran 68% of his laps in the Top 15 and ended up with a 13th place finish
– In 2024 he has 8 Stage T10’s and 46 Stage Pts while having the 3rd best Laps in Top 15%, but he has just 2 Top 10’s and the 15th best Avg. Finish (17.6)
– The only streak he has this year is an 8 straight Stage T10 streak
– His Richmond streaks are more impressive as he had 2 straight Wins in 2020 plus a 5 race Top 5 streak in 2019-2021, but the only active streak he has is a 3 straight Stage T10 streak
– He was great on Short tracks last year as he had the best Avg. Finish (5.25), the 3rd best Avg. Driver Rating (110.75), and 2 Wins with a worst finish of 13th in 4 races
– Allgaier ran 91% of his laps at Richmond last year in the Top 15, but he led just 2 laps and ended up with a 13th place finish
– He’s ran all 7 Xfinity races in the last 5 years at Richmond scoring 2 Wins, 5 Top 5’s, a worst finish of 14th, and having an impressive 116.13 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Much like Herbst above Justin Allgaier has had a good season in terms of runs, but a bad season in terms of race finishes. However, unlike Herbst there is great news on the horizon in that we head to a Short track this weekend where he was fantastic last year. Even better is that this weekend is Richmond where he’s been great over the last 5 years, finishing no worse than 14th in the 7 races. Overall, watch out for Allgaier this weekend as he’s typically great at Richmond and could very well end up in victory lane at the end of the race.
– Justin Allgaier is notable because of his stats at Richmond in the last 5 Xfinity seasons
– Last week at COTA Allgaier ran 68% of his laps in the Top 15 and ended up with a 13th place finish
– In 2024 he has 8 Stage T10’s and 46 Stage Pts while having the 3rd best Laps in Top 15%, but he has just 2 Top 10’s and the 15th best Avg. Finish (17.6)
– The only streak he has this year is an 8 straight Stage T10 streak
– His Richmond streaks are more impressive as he had 2 straight Wins in 2020 plus a 5 race Top 5 streak in 2019-2021, but the only active streak he has is a 3 straight Stage T10 streak
– He was great on Short tracks last year as he had the best Avg. Finish (5.25), the 3rd best Avg. Driver Rating (110.75), and 2 Wins with a worst finish of 13th in 4 races
– Allgaier ran 91% of his laps at Richmond last year in the Top 15, but he led just 2 laps and ended up with a 13th place finish
– He’s ran all 7 Xfinity races in the last 5 years at Richmond scoring 2 Wins, 5 Top 5’s, a worst finish of 14th, and having an impressive 116.13 Avg. Driver Rating
Outlook for this weekend
Much like Herbst above Justin Allgaier has had a good season in terms of runs, but a bad season in terms of race finishes. However, unlike Herbst there is great news on the horizon in that we head to a Short track this weekend where he was fantastic last year. Even better is that this weekend is Richmond where he’s been great over the last 5 years, finishing no worse than 14th in the 7 races. Overall, watch out for Allgaier this weekend as he’s typically great at Richmond and could very well end up in victory lane at the end of the race.
