Surely, you would not expect NASCAR fans to be excited about a trip to Texas Motor Speedway. However, that is where some are after the past three weeks of middling racing action. COTA, Richmond, and Martinsville have put together a string of races where the key headline from those weekends was the lack of exciting racing. Who does that benefit? Texas Motor Speedway. Now, the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 is not set to be this grand race where fans will be on the edge of their seats. Even with the NextGen car producing quality races on intermediates, Texas is still Texas. However, the recent slog of Cup Series races have brought some excitement to see better racing that should happen on the intermediate track. With that better racing, who will be the 5 Drivers to Watch?
Outside of the entertainment value of this upcoming weekend, there are intriguing storylines to follow heading into the race. After winning his third race of the season, William Byron is becoming a championship favorite. Will he continue his momentum into Texas? Plus, Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing have been schooling the field week in and week out. Except for Atlanta, the two top teams have won every race this season. Can a different team rise up to steal a win from them at Texas? As per usual arrangement, will Ford finally break through in the wins column or will they wait until next week at Talladega? From the plethora of storylines, here are the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Joey Logano
After a bad start to the season, there were some writing Joey Logano off for the 2024 season. Off the back of 3 solid finishes, Logano has returned to the playoff conversation. The past two weeks have seen Logano as arguably the best Ford in the field as well. Now, Logano sits within the Top-16 of points. Once left for dead, now Logano is beginning to regain the form that many expect out of him. However, the journey back is not over yet. Logano is not merely a fringe playoff driver. He is supposed to be a top driver in the sport who competes for wins each week. Have the past couple of weekends shown fans the resurgence of that driver?
Well, Texas will go a long way to determining that. In the NextGen era, Logano has had two different races at Texas Motor Speedway. In 2022, Logano started second, finished in the Top-10 for both stages, and ultimately finished where he started. Last year, Logano (already eliminated from the playoffs) barely sniffed the Top-15 throughout the race. Which Logano will show up this weekend? The only other intermediate thus far on the season was Las Vegas, where Logano qualified on pole and finished inside the Top-10. While Las Vegas and Texas race differently, that early result bodes well for a good race for Logano this weekend. There are still questions about whether Ford has the equipment necessary to compete for a win. However, Texas could be the start, especially with Joey Logano (and teammate Ryan Blaney).
Austin Hill
For the first of a reported four races, Austin Hill will step into a third entry for Richard Childress Racing. Driving the 33 car, Hill will make his 2024 Cup debut at Texas Motor Speedway. Joining Jimmie Johnson, Hill will be an open car to makeup the 38 entries in the race. Outside of his two starts at Michigan, Texas marks the first intermediate start for Hill at NASCAR’s highest level.
What levels of expectation should there be for Austin Hill this weekend? Based on how RCR has looked this season, not very high. Austin Dillon seems to be repeating his down-2023 season. Kyle Busch has been inconsistent. Plus, RCR’s 33 car has never impressed when on the track since Clint Bowyer drove it. That does not line up for lofty expectations. However, it will give Hill valuable experience in the NextGen car.
When Austin Hill signed his extension last year with RCR, many were surprised to see that it was a 2-year Xfinity deal. After a strong 2023, it seemed likely that Hill would have made his way to the Cup Series via Spire Motorsports or Kaulig Racing. Instead, Hill returned for another crack at the Xfinity title. The four Cup starts with RCR though implies potential future plans for Hill in the next year or two. RCR was not mentioned as a team looking to buy a potential charter from Stewart-Haas Racing. Could strong runs from Hill in the 33 car change that? Perhaps Austin Dillon steps away from the 3, opening the door for Hill to enter Cup next year. Keep an eye out for Austin Hill this weekend, who could better his Cup prospects with a solid run.
Kyle Larson
A new year brings similar storylines from the Hendrick Motorsports camp. Last year, William Byron led the Cup Series in wins with 6. However, Byron did not feel like the top driver from his own organization. Larson led more laps than Byron last year while leaving numerous wins on the table. For 2024, that storyline seems to be creeping in a bit again. Through 8 races this season, Larson has only failed to lead a lap in one (COTA). Not only has Larson led laps nearly every race, he leads the Cup Series in laps led by 96 laps over the second best. However, Larson sits at a lone win (Las Vegas) while Byron has racked up 3.
Speaking of races thrown away last year, Texas was a prime example in 2023. Kyle Larson was one of the top three cars in the field. However, overaggressive driving against Bubba Wallace led Larson to wreck out of the race. Meanwhile, Byron got track position late and scampered to the win. With the speed the team has shown this year, expect Kyle Larson to look to avenge that DNF. Entering the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400, Larson should be the favorite. If he can keep the car away from the wall, Larson is likely to find himself in victory lane.
Ty Gibbs
To call it a cold streak would be too extreme, but Ty Gibbs has taken a step back after his strong opening to the season. The past two short tracks have been middling affairs for the young Joe Gibbs Racing driver. He still finished in the Top-20, but he failed to score stage points in either race and remained outside the Top-10. Is it anything to be concerned about? Doubtful, but it does dampen the notion that his first Cup win is only a matter of time. Outside of Christopher Bell’s Martinsville issues, Gibbs again felt like a distant fourth best driver in his organization the past two weeks.
Since it is currently a minor blip on an overall tremendous season thus far, Texas could be the return to the pre-Richmond status quo. Toyotas looked strong in this race last year, so it would be plausible for Gibbs to return to a Top-10 driver this weekend. You cannot truly judge Gibbs’ performance from last year as a basis for this season. A low line on pit road saw the 54 collide with the 11, which ended the race for Gibbs. However, Gibbs did qualify inside the Top-10 and remained there until the pit road incident. Based on how the Toyotas have looked, it would be expected to see Ty Gibbs run well this weekend. Could he be a factor for the win in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400?
Todd Gilliland
Coming off another impressive run at Martinsville Speedway, Todd Gilliland heads into Texas Motor Speedway with some momentum. 2024 is shaping up to be another step in the right direction for the young Front Row driver. On top of some solid results, Gilliland has already led a career high in laps (88). There might not be a notch in the Top-10 column yet, but the underlying trends of Gilliland’s statistics points to a career season.
While his 2023 start was a bit better, the stability Todd Gilliland will find this season should help prolong the early season success throughout the year. Gilliland will be driving the 38 car for the entire 2024 season. No Zane Smith coming in and replacing him for a handful of races. That should help maintain his rhythm in the car. At his current pace, Gilliland is on track to set a career high in lead lap finishes (projected for 22). A big test will be this weekend for the 38 driver as he heads to Texas.
In his 2 starts at Texas, Gilliland has failed to finish on the lead lap. Last year, he had a DNF while in a Rick Ware Racing ride. If Gilliland is progressing the way he seems to be, a lead lap finish should be on the docket. A great sign of Gilliland (and Front Row #38) bettering himself would be a Top-20 as well. While Gilliland (likely) will not be a player for the win, watching the young driver continue his development in the mid-pack will be something to watch in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400.
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