For the final time this spring, the NASCAR Cup Series will go short track racing. Ending a quick 3 of 4 short track circuit (briefly interrupted by COTA), the Cup Series heads to Martinsville Speedway. Make sure to grab your $2 hot dog while there and examine the final test of NASCAR’s short track package. So far, the results have not been good. The best short track race was without the updated package. Phoenix and Richmond have not lent much faith for this weekend’s on track action. Maybe there will be some rain to get the track damp for wet weather tires. Hey, it worked for Richmond. Despite the bleak outlook for the on-track action, there are still plenty of intriguing storylines heading into Sunday’s race. Who will be the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the Cook Out 400?
The benefit to squishing 3 short track races in a tight portion of the schedule is that the drama between drivers intensifies. Even COTA offered some heat between drivers, as Kyle Busch warned Christopher Bell about some upcoming receipts. Will that spill over for the Cook Out 400? With the struggles to pass, the bumpers will certainly be utilized. That could lead to some sparks. Also, this race will serve as a preview for the Round of 8 elimination race in the fall. While numerous things can change from now until October, the Cook Out 400 can still offer some insight into what to expect from the (up to) 8 drivers competing for the Championship Four. With all of this to consider, who should be the 5 drivers to focus on this weekend?
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Martin Truex Jr
Speaking of potential driver drama, Martin Truex Jr flashed some frustration after the race last weekend. What seemed to be a pull-away win went up in smoke after Bubba Wallace spun Kyle Larson with 2 to go. Denny Hamlin emerged victorious after jumping the restart and using up Truex in Turns 1 and 2. That led to Truex taking his frustration out on Larson then tracking down Hamlin on the cool down lap to bump him repeatedly. Usually, Truex maintains his composure despite what might have transpired on the track. However, Sunday saw that frustration boil over. Now the question is whether that is the end of it.
Unlike the threatening message Kyle Busch gave to Christopher Bell, it is doubtful that Martin Truex Jr will go out of his way to give Denny Hamlin payback. With that said, Martinsville is a track where beating and banging is expected. In a race winning situation, maybe Truex returns the favor to Hamlin (or any driver). Truex ran well at Martinsville last fall before a speeding penalty ruined his race. It is highly possible that Truex will be a contender this weekend, especially considering how fast Joe Gibbs Racing has been this season. If he is in a position to win, carefully watch Truex to see if his elbows are bowed out a bit.
Josh Berry
Stewart-Haas Racing seems to be somewhat back this season. While they are still a far cry from their peak form, all SHR teams have shown more competitive speed this season. At the short tracks, the shining star of SHR has been Josh Berry. Both Bristol and Richmond saw Berry consistently run in the Top-10. While the results are missing, the speed has been there. Heading to Martinsville, this might be a great chance for Josh Berry to pick up a Top-5. Remember, Stewart-Haas Racing was competitive at Martinsville last year while they were struggling to find any bit of consistency.
Honestly, any of the SHR drivers are ones to watch this weekend. Ryan Preece qualified on pole last year and looked set to dominate the race before a speeding penalty killed his chances. Chase Briscoe has been sporty at the short track. Noah Gragson is a former Xfinity Series winner at Martinsville. However, Josh Berry has the short track pedigree and the best team suited for success this weekend. Ford could use a trip to victory lane. While Team Penske and RFK Racing have been better, Berry and the 4 team is not a bad shout as the Cook Out 400 winner.
Corey LaJoie
Last year, Corey LaJoie had a career season. Setting personal bests in every statistical category, 2024 was set to be the next step in his progression. Spire Motorsports heavily invested in the future of the team, seemingly indicating that there would be improved performance to go with it. After a Top-5 in the Daytona 500 (and a 12th at Atlanta), the season started off promising. However, the departure of the superspeedways also saw the good runs go away as well. Since Atlanta, LaJoie’s best finish is 21st at Bristol. Through 5 non-superspeedway races in 2023, LaJoie racked up 3 Top-20s.
While the finishing results have not been there, the speed seemingly is not the issue. At least not in qualifying. Through 7 races, LaJoie is on pace to improve upon his career best average starting position by over 2 spots. Now, qualifying speed does not equal race speed. But, it does indicate that the equipment does have potential. LaJoie is struggling to bring out that full potential as he did in 2023. Martinsville might not be the track where LaJoie turns it around though. Since joining Spire, LaJoie has failed to finish inside the Top-20 and only has one lead lap finish (in 6 starts). However, a good run at Martinsville will go a long way to getting LaJoie’s season back on track.
William Byron
The last time that William Byron was at Martinsville Speedway, he was barely holding onto the final spot in the Championship Four. Despite how great of a season and playoffs Byron was having, Martinsville turned into a stressful race as he was marred in the mid-pack. In the end, Byron did enough to secure his spot for Phoenix.
Martinsville Speedway has been a tale of two extremes for William Byron. Either Byron is contending for the win or he is a complete nonfactor in the race. That trend continued with the NextGen car. In 2022, Byron won the spring race then followed it up with a Top-10. However, he followed it up last year with a finish outside the Top-20 and the struggle session mentioned above. Not only is this Byron’s history at Martinsville spotty, this seems to be a trend since the start of 2023.
William Byron had a breakout 2023 season, but it was not a consistent year of dominance. Byron had highlights, but even all of his 6 wins were not great displays of driver skill. Well-timed cautions and pit strategy factored heavily in wins rather than a race where Byron was the driver to beat from start to finish. Outside of the wins, Byron had races where he went quiet. This season is looking the same. A dominant performance at COTA is followed up by a relatively quiet race at Richmond. Which William Byron will fans see at Martinsville?
Ryan Blaney
Ryan Blaney is likely excited to see Martinsville as the next race on the calendar. Since Phoenix, Blaney has failed to finish inside the Top-10. More so than the less-than desired results, Blaney has seemed off the pace compared to his early season form. However, that can be changed quickly at one of Blaney’s best tracks. Although he only picked up his first win at the track last fall, his average finish is 9.0 and he has led over 500 laps.
As mentioned in the Josh Berry section, Ford could use a win on the season. While the panic button should still be avoided, a long stretch without a win is only going to continue the worry and pressure. Josh Berry might be a good dark horse to lean on this weekend, but Ryan Blaney should be favorite out of the Ford camp. Even with the Toyotas looking impressive, Martinsville has felt like a Ford haven for strong runs. With a Martinsville win under his belt, Blaney knows how to get it done in Virginia. Watch out for Ryan Blaney to win the Cook Out 400.
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