Overreaction Monday: Dover

After a week away, Overreaction Monday is back after the NASCAR series took on the Monster Mile. Fans were greeted to another Denny Hamlin win, his third on the season. The end of the race looked exciting too, as Kyle Larson closed the gap to Hamlin. However, Hamlin deployed a tried and true method to secure the win: air blocking. Hamlin was able to block enough of Larson’s line in the turns to keep him at bay. That finish will definitely spark debate among fans. Is air blocking an issue that NASCAR needs to resolve or simply a part of the modern NASCAR (at least Cup)? Especially with Kansas next week, this will be a topic of discussion for the week. Can it be considered an overreaction? What else was there to overreaction to on this Monday post-Dover?

Denny Hamlin: Top-10 All-Time Driver

With his win on Sunday, Denny Hamlin now has 54 Cup Series wins. This ties him for twelfth on the all-time wins list with Lee Petty. One more win and he ties for eleventh with Rusty Wallace. Despite being the newly most-despised Cup Series driver, there is no denying that Hamlin will enter the NASCAR Hall of Fame. Likely, he will go in during his first time on the ballot. Although he is missing a championship (of any variety), the man has been consistent winner in his Cup career. Since being a fulltime competitor, Hamlin has only gone winless once in his 19 seasons (2018). Since that winless season, Hamlin has racked up 23 wins while in the midst of the sixth season since.

Denny Hamlin will be considered an all-time great when his career is finished. However, where does he rank? Barring some tremendous seasons to end his career, Hamlin will remain outside the Top-5. Hamlin is not among the greats like Richard Petty, David Pearson, Dale Earnhardt, Jeff Gordon, or Jimmie Johnson. Does he not fit into the back half of the Top-10? Last year, there were Top-75 lists going around due NASCAR’s 75th anniversary. For The Athletic, Hamlin ranked 18th: one writer had him as high as 12th and one had him as low as 39th. Since that list came out, Hamlin has racked up another 6 wins. However, he also missed the Championship Four. Are the wins enough to put him into the Top-10 despite the championship goose-egg?

Where to Rank Hamlin?

Hamlin will be an interesting driver to examine in that light. Is he the greatest Cup driver on the circuit currently? Would you rank him above Kyle Busch or Joey Logano? Another Dover win is impressive to go along with his career. Hamlin is approaching 60 wins, which is a milestone only 10 drivers have reached. If Hamlin reaches that mark, he would be the first to do so without winning a championship. Does that make him Top-10? It will be an interesting historical question to discuss if that is how his career ends.

Defensive Driving Wins Championships

As mentioned in the intro, Denny Hamlin managed to hang onto his 54th career win via defensive driving. In the closing laps, Kyle Larson looked to be the faster driver. His lap time were better and he cut down a significant gap to get in contention for the win. However, Hamlin employed the air blocking method to keep Larson from getting to his bumper or quarter panel. With Hamlin taking Larson’s air away from him, it stalled the 5 car to the point where Larson could never get closer than a car length or two.

Fans of NASCAR have long grown to bemoan the tactic of air blocking. One of the most infamous examples was the 2020 race at Kansas, where Joey Logano was able to keep Kevin Harvick at bay despite Harvick being significantly faster. It is frustrating to watch a race get determine by which driver can block the best. Blocking is one thing though, but the ability to keep the second place car a distance from you is where the frustration boils over. With the NextGen car, the issue is only compounded with the rearview camera to help the drivers out. Kyle Larson admits that he used it to win Stage 2, while Denny Hamlin says that the spotter does that job for him. Either way, the end result is a faster car being stuck in the wake of the leader.

Whether fans like it or not, this is not going to change anytime soon. Although frustrating, Hamlin did nothing wrong to secure the win. Plus, there was skill to what Hamlin did to keep Larson behind him. It would have been easy to miss his mark in the turn, slide up the track too much, and open the door for Larson. While it might not be the most exciting way to finish a race, there is a skill to it. Remember, Larson did the same thing to Tyler Reddick at Las Vegas.

Future Stars are Here

After the General Tire 150, you would have been hard pressed to not see the showering of praise for Connor Zilisch. Zilisch won in only his second career ARCA Menards Series start at Dover. While definitely a triumphant moment, the general consensus on social media from journalists seemed to crown Zilisch as the next Jeff Gordon. Winning is always great, but the overreaction to it was a bit overblown. In order for Zilisch to win, the best car got hit with a questionable penalty and the only other competitive entry was taken out by Zilisch himself. Maybe everyone should pump the brakes before jumping to grand conclusions based on this win. Remember, the ARCA series is not what it used to be.

Meanwhile, the Xfinity Series race saw another young prospect receive plenty of praise. Carson Kvapil made it two for two in Top-5s in his first Xfinity Series starts. It almost looked to be a victorious Saturday for Kvapil, but Ryan Truex managed to slip past him on the finish restart. However, there was plenty of praise for the young JRM driver after the race. While never reaching the same levels of the Zilisch hype, the narrative around Kvapil is starting to build about his potential NASCAR future.

Could both Zilisch and Kvapil be future stars of the sport? Yes, of course. However, sometimes the hype does not match the potential. Before proclaiming the potential success of these young drivers, why not see what they can accomplish over a larger sample size? Not to say you cannot project great things, but maybe pump the brakes on the scale in which you hype up these two.