This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Dover Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Dover (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Busch
Finished: 27th
Last weeks winner: Tyler Reddick
Projected Finish: 34th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-Only 1 driver finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected (Austin Dillon, projected 29th, finished 30th)
-7 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-10 of the 38 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15
Notes from all projections this year (10 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 15 of 374, 4.01%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 156 of 374, 41.71%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 136 of 374, 36.36%
-Correct Winner projections: 1 of 10, 10.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 46 of 100, 46.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: William Byron
One to Watch: Ryan Blaney
Disappointment: John Hunter Nemechek
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 24 | William Byron | 33rd -32 |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 1st +1 |
| 3. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 7th -4 |
| 4. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 11th -7 |
| 5. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 17th -12 |
| 6. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 3rd +3 |
| 7. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 4th +3 |
| 8. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 12th -4 |
| 9. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 8th +1 |
| 10. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 10th +0 |
| 11. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 36th -25 |
| 12. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 34th -22 |
| 13. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 5th +8 |
| 14. | 4 | Josh Berry | 14th +0 |
| 15. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 2nd +13 |
| 16. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 30th -14 |
| 17. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 32nd -15 |
| 18. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 19th -1 |
| 19. | 22 | Joey Logano | 16th +3 |
| 20. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 13th +7 |
| 21. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 22nd -1 |
| 22. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 35th -13 |
| 23. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 6th +17 |
| 24. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | 28th -4 |
| 25. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 9th +16 |
| 26. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 15th +11 |
| 27. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 37th -10 |
| 28. | 43 | Corey Heim | 25th +3 |
| 29. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 18th +11 |
| 30. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 27th +3 |
| 31. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 21st +10 |
| 32. | 51 | Justin Haley | 23rd +9 |
| 33. | 71 | Zane Smith | 24th +9 |
| 34. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 31st +3 |
| 35. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20th +15 |
| 36. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 26th +10 |
| 37. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 29th +8 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
