This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Spring Martinsville Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Martinsville (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 3rd
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 11th

Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Austin Dillon 24th)
-10 of the 36 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-6 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-The worst projection was Tyler Reddick at only 13 spots better than projected
-10 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished in the Top 13

Notes from all projections this year (7 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 11 of 261, 4.21%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 114 of 261, 43.68%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 93 of 261, 35.63%
-Correct Winner projections: 1 of 7, 14.29%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 36 of 70, 51.43%

Notable results this week

Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Josh Berry
Disappointment: Kyle Busch

Last week the stats were close, but no cigar in terms of Pole winner Kyle Larson winning the race. This week we’ll see if they do any better as they project him to win again. Photo by James Gilbert — Getty Images

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 5 Kyle Larson 2nd -1
2. 11 Denny Hamlin 11th -9
3. 9 Chase Elliott 3rd +0
4. 22 Joey Logano 6th -2
5. 23 Bubba Wallace 4th +1
6. 4 Josh Berry 25th -19
7. 20 Christopher Bell 35th -28
8. 19 Martin Truex Jr. 18th -10
9. 24 William Byron 1st +8
10. 54 Ty Gibbs 19th -9
11. 14 Chase Briscoe 10th +1
12. 48 Alex Bowman 8th +4
13. 12 Ryan Blaney 5th +8
14. 6 Brad Keselowski 24th -10
15. 41 Ryan Preece 9th +6
16. 1 Ross Chastain 14th +2
17. 17 Chris Buescher 15th +2
18. 43 Erik Jones 12th +6
19. 38 Todd Gilliland 13th +6
20. 45 Tyler Reddick 7th +13
21. 99 Daniel Suarez 22nd -1
22. 2 Austin Cindric 23rd -1
23. 8 Kyle Busch 16th +7
24. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 29th -5
25. 7 Corey LaJoie 32nd -7
26. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 36th -10
27. 34 Michael McDowell 21st +6
28. 16 Josh Williams 27th +1
29. 3 Austin Dillon 34th -5
30. 10 Noah Gragson 20th +10
31. 15 Kaz Grala 26th +5
32. 77 Carson Hocevar 17th +15
33. 21 Harrison Burton 33rd +0
34. 71 Zane Smith 31st +3
35. 31 Daniel Hemric 28th +7
36. 51 Justin Haley 30th +6
37. 66 David Starr 37th +0

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.