This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Spring Martinsville Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Martinsville (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 3rd
Last weeks winner: Denny Hamlin
Projected Finish: 11th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Austin Dillon 24th)
-10 of the 36 drivers finished within 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-6 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-The worst projection was Tyler Reddick at only 13 spots better than projected
-10 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished in the Top 13
Notes from all projections this year (7 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 11 of 261, 4.21%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 114 of 261, 43.68%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 93 of 261, 35.63%
-Correct Winner projections: 1 of 7, 14.29%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 36 of 70, 51.43%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Josh Berry
Disappointment: Kyle Busch
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 2nd -1 |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 11th -9 |
| 3. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 3rd +0 |
| 4. | 22 | Joey Logano | 6th -2 |
| 5. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 4th +1 |
| 6. | 4 | Josh Berry | 25th -19 |
| 7. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 35th -28 |
| 8. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 18th -10 |
| 9. | 24 | William Byron | 1st +8 |
| 10. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 19th -9 |
| 11. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 10th +1 |
| 12. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 8th +4 |
| 13. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 5th +8 |
| 14. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 24th -10 |
| 15. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 9th +6 |
| 16. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 14th +2 |
| 17. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 15th +2 |
| 18. | 43 | Erik Jones | 12th +6 |
| 19. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 13th +6 |
| 20. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 7th +13 |
| 21. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 22nd -1 |
| 22. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 23rd -1 |
| 23. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 16th +7 |
| 24. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 29th -5 |
| 25. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 32nd -7 |
| 26. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 36th -10 |
| 27. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 21st +6 |
| 28. | 16 | Josh Williams | 27th +1 |
| 29. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 34th -5 |
| 30. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 20th +10 |
| 31. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 26th +5 |
| 32. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 17th +15 |
| 33. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 33rd +0 |
| 34. | 71 | Zane Smith | 31st +3 |
| 35. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 28th +7 |
| 36. | 51 | Justin Haley | 30th +6 |
| 37. | 66 | David Starr | 37th +0 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
