This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Spring Talladega Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Talladega (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Tyler Reddick
Finished: 4th
Last weeks winner: Chase Elliott
Projected Finish: 14th

Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (William Byron 3rd)
-10 of the 38 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the 38 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished in the Top 13

Notes from all projections this year (9 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 15 of 336, 4.46%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 149 of 336, 44.35%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 115 of 336, 34.23%
-Correct Winner projections: 1 of 9, 11.11%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 45 of 90, 50.00%

Notable results this week

Winner: Kyle Busch
One to Watch: Erik Jones
Disappointment: Tyler Reddick

Kyle Busch has struggled this year, but his stats on Superspeedways this year and at Talladega in the Next Gen car having him finishing first in the projection below. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 8 Kyle Busch 27th -26
2. 9 Chase Elliott 15th -13
3. 23 Bubba Wallace 36th -33
4. 24 William Byron 7th -3
5. 2 Austin Cindric 23rd -18
6. 12 Ryan Blaney 20th -14
7. 19 Martin Truex Jr. 11th -4
8. 11 Denny Hamlin 37th -29
9. 1 Ross Chastain 13th -4
10. 43 Erik Jones 35th -25
11. 99 Daniel Suarez 26th -15
12. 20 Christopher Bell 38th -16
13. 7 Corey LaJoie 18th -5
14. 5 Kyle Larson 21st -7
15. 38 Todd Gilliland 8th +7
16. 34 Michael McDowell 31st -15
17. 17 Chris Buescher 25th -8
18. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 4th +14
19. 51 Justin Haley 34th -15
20. 14 Chase Briscoe 12th +8
21. 48 Alex Bowman 5th +16
22. 41 Ryan Preece 14th +8
23. 6 Brad Keselowski 2nd +21
24. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 33rd -9
25. 54 Ty Gibbs 22nd +3
26. 31 Daniel Hemric 9th +17
27. 4 Josh Berry 16th +11
28. 22 Joey Logano 19th +9
29. 3 Austin Dillon 30th -1
30. 10 Noah Gragson 3rd +27
31. 16 Shane van Gisbergen 28th +3
32. 62 Anthony Alfredo 6th +26
33. 15 Cody Ware 24th -9
34. 45 Tyler Reddick 1st +33
35. 71 Zane Smith 29th +6
36. 21 Harrison Burton 10th +26
37. 77 Carson Hocevar 17th +20
38. 78 B.J. McLeod 32nd +6

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.