As the halfway point in the Cup Series regular season nears, NASCAR’s top series will head to Kansas Speedway for the AdventHealth 400. With the NextGen car, Kansas has turned into a new fan favorite. An intermediate with multiple lanes, Kansas has offered quality racing from start to finish. Plus, there have been some notable finishes in recent memory. Most notably, this race last year where Denny Hamlin nudged Kyle Larson out of the way to secure the win. Will the fans see something similar play out this year? Can this weekend’s Kansas festivities avoid the gloomy forecast? Also, who will be the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the AdventHealth 400?
On paper, this weekend looks to be another race where Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing/23XI Racing will be set to dominate. Toyota has been especially strong here in the NextGen era, sweeping all four races at the track in the past two years. 23XI Racing has won three of those races, all with different drivers. However, Hendrick Motorsports have taken the fight to the Toyotas, picking up 5 Top-5s in those races. The smart money would be on a JGR/23XI driver to win with some hedging toward the Hendrick entries. Also, the rest of the field will be participating. Although the results might seem like a foregone conclusion, there is plenty of intrigue heading into the weekend. Consider keeping an eye on the 5 drivers below during the AdventHealth 400.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Kyle Busch
Dover was a much needed bounce back for Kyle Busch and the 8 team. Since the end of the summer last year, Busch has been struggling. After picking up 3 wins in the first 15 races in 2023, Busch has been absent from victory lane. Not only is Busch not winning, he has struggled to find consistent results. Last year, the issue were the high number of DNFs. This season, the speed has been lacking along with pit road struggles. Dover was Busch’s first Top-5 on a non-superspeedway since the playoff race at Las Vegas. Despite the struggles, Busch and company have the chance to build off that momentum.
Heading to Kansas, Busch demonstrated the ability to keep up with the Hendrick and Toyota cars. Despite a DNF in the spring, Busch ran solidly within the Top-10. Meanwhile, the fall saw Busch drive from the back to nab a 7th place finish. What will be in store for Busch this weekend? Well, Dover demonstrated that Busch can put together a race where he qualifies and finishes well. There is no reason to think that this team cannot put together a similar race at Kansas. The big question is whether they can stay out of their own way. Whether it is on-track incidents or the revolving door known as their pit crew roster, the 8 team has lack the ability to avoid mistakes. Maybe Kansas will continue what Dover started. Or Busch fans will watch another frustrating endeavor as Rowdy straddles the playoff cutline.
John Hunter Nemechek
John Hunter Nemechek’s return to the Cup Series has not gone as smoothly as everyone hoped. It seems that the 42 Legacy Motor Club entry still has the same issues that plagued Noah Gragson last year. Through 11 races, Nemechek has collected two Top-10s. That is double the amount that the 42 car had since its reintroduction. However, the results away from those Top-10s have been less than desirable. Only once has Nemechek finished inside the Top-20 when he does not finish inside the Top-10. Plus, Bristol is the only race where Nemechek has spent more than 25% of a race inside the Top-15.
Those lackluster numbers could see a boost at Kansas this weekend. As mentioned earlier, Toyota has been fantastic at the mid-west intermediate in the NextGen era. In the four races since the NextGen, a total of 7 Toyota entries combined have failed to finish inside the Top-10. Of those 7, 4 were DNFs. To put it simply, Toyota has Kansas figured out. This should be a boost for both Legacy Motor Club entries. In addition to the manufacturer strength, Nemechek dominated on the intermediates in the Xfinity Series. Last year, Nemechek racked up four wins on intermediates. Between the two factors, the AdventHealth 400 has the potential to be a breakthrough race for John Hunter Nemechek.
Riley Herbst
Riley Herbst will be driving the 15 Rick Ware Racing entry for the AdventHealth 400. This will mark Herbst’s first Cup Series start at a non-superspeedway. Now, there is almost zero chance that Herbst will make any significant noise in the race. Rick Ware Racing has shown improvement, but they are still a far cry away from being competitive. Outside the superspeedways, Rick Ware Racing entries still compete to remain inside the Top-30. The 15 car has finishes of 31 and 27 on intermediates this season. With that said, why Riley Herbst one to watch this weekend?
Within the Ford camp, Riley Herbst is in a unique spot in his development. Currently, he is doing his fifth fulltime season in the Xfinity Series. Prospects for a fulltime Cup callup seem to hinge on how well he competes for the Xfinity championship this season, as well as his limited runs in Cup. On the superspeedways in Cup, Herbst has impressed. Other drivers respect his abilities enough to trust him to be a key pusher in the draft. The question is how can he handle the other tracks. Will Riley Herbst overperform in the limited equipment he is in? Justin Haley and Kaz Grala have shown flashes of that this season. If Herbst can look competitive in the low 20s, that could help his case to be brought up to the Cup Series.
Tyler Reddick
If you are not picking a Joe Gibbs Racing entry to win, then Tyler Reddick will likely be the next best guess. The most recent winner at Kansas, Reddick is riding some momentum heading into this weekend. Winning Talladega then having a solid day at Dover, Kansas should bode well for the 45 team. In each NextGen race, Reddick has led at least 2 laps. Ironically, Reddick’s three races with double digit laps led are not the one that he won. Last year, Reddick pulled off the upset from his boss after Denny Hamlin overthought the restart. The win secured Reddick’s spot in the Round of 8.
23XI Racing has won three of the past four races. All of those races have been won by the 45 car, yet with three different drivers. Reddick has a great chance at being the first 23XI Racing driver to win twice at the track. The speed for the team has been there all season. Except for a few exceptions, the execution has matched the speed. However, it is too early to proclaim that their pit road woes are behind them. If those are in the past, then Reddick should have no issues competing for the win with his satellite teammates at JGR.
Zane Smith
What a miserable season Zane Smith has gotten off to thus far. Through 11 races, Smith sits last in both driver and owner points. In driver points, Smith is a point behind Kaz Grala, who missed Talladega. The lone bright spot for Smith this season was his 13th place finish in the Daytona 500. Since the, Smith has only finished better than 25th twice (COTA and Dover). For many, Smith was the frontrunner for the Rookie of the Year. With the alliance between Trackhouse and Spire, the thought was that Smith would have the necessary equipment to compete to be the top rookie. Instead, he is being consistently outran by his quasi-teammate Carson Hocevar.
While the first 11 races have been poor, Zane Smith does have talent to wheel a stock car. His best career Cup result came at an intermediate (Top-10 at Charlotte). Perhaps Kansas can be the track to get him back going. In the Truck Series, Smith ran strongly at Kansas. In eight starts, Smith won once while collecting 4 Top-5s and 7 Top-10s. His worst finish was 11th. Sure, Spire still lacks the consistent speed to expect Smith to contend for a Top-10. However, Hocevar is proving that Top-20s are within reach. Smith needs a good performance at Kansas if he has any hope of turning his season around.
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