The greatest weekend in motorsports is upon race fans. NASCAR, IndyCar, and Formula 1 all host marque events during Memorial Day weekend. Starting in the morning, Formula will run on the streets of Monaco, likely with a Max Verstappen win incoming. Then, IndyCar takes center stage for the 108th running of the Indy 500. Along with the IndyCar regulars and veterans, Kyle Larson will be the fifth driver to pull the double that Sunday. Will he be kissing the bricks briefly before heading to Charlotte for the Coca-Cola 600? Then, Sunday will end with one of NASCAR’s crown jewels in the 600. 39 drivers will attempt to win the ultimate NASCAR race of endurance. For the NASCAR fans, which of those 39 will be the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the Coca-Cola 600?
Obviously, all eyes will be on Kyle Larson this week. Larson is the first driver to attempt the double since Kurt Busch did it in 2014. Larson is seeking to be only the second driver to drive the full distance of both races. Only Stewart has accomplished that feat thus far. After an impressive qualifying effort, Larson could be lined up to better Stewart’s results from that day in 2001. Starting fifth on Sunday, Larson has flashed the necessary speed to bring home a Top-5. Of course, Larson is always a contender for a Cup Series race.
Now, there will be plenty of attention paid to Larson. What about some of the other drivers this weekend for the Coca-Cola 600? Who should be front of mind when consuming the NASCAR portion of the racing weekend? Which drivers are the 5 to watch this weekend?
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Brad Keselowski
The last winner of a points paying race was Brad Keselowski. Claiming the throwback weekend at Darlington, Keselowski snapped a 110 race winless streak to lock himself into the playoffs. Plus, he secured Ford’s first win of the 2024 season. Post All-Star break, Ford is riding a hot streak with Joey Logano dominating North Wilkesboro. Considering Chris Buescher only lost Kansas by .001 seconds, Ford is now starting to look like a viable threat to Chevy and Toyota. Keselowski can ride that momentum to back-to-back wins.
A two-time winner at Charlotte, Brad Keselowski looked strong in the 600 last year. While the result does not look impressive, it does not indicate the speed that both RFK drivers flashed that day. With how well the two have looked at intermediates recently, Charlotte could be a great day for RFK. While Buescher received the most notoriety from Kansas, Keselowski actually had the fastest car on track before the last caution. The same is accurate from Michigan last year as well. Keselowski and crew chief Matt McCall find long run speed late in these type of races. If the Coca-Cola 600 has a long green flag run to the end, Keselowski will likely be charging hard for the win.
Daniel Suarez
For Daniel Suarez, the All-Star race needed to be a season reset for the 99 team. After winning Atlanta, 2024 has not been kind to the Trackhouse driver. Since finishing 13th at Phoenix, Suarez has struggled to finish inside the Top-20. Over the last 9 races, Suarez is averaging a 21.4 finish with only one finish inside the Top-15 (fifth at Texas). That Atlanta win sits as the only highlight for Suarez, as it will put him in the playoffs as he slides further down the points leaderboard. To further compound the struggles, Suarez only has received stage points once this season on a non-superspeedway. That came at COTA, where stage cautions lead to drivers deeper in the field getting stage points.
Daniel Suarez remains on a the hot seat despite his win. 2024 had to be an improvement upon his 2023, but that has yet to materialize. Sure, Trackhouse Racing seems to be down this season overall. However, Ross Chastain sits in the Top-10 in points. Coming out of the All-Star break, Suarez will look for a strong run at Charlotte. Unfortunately, the Coca-Cola 600 has few positive results for Suarez to hang his hat on. The lone (oval) Charlotte Top-10 Suarez has did not come from the 600. His best 600 finish was 11th in his rookie season. With Trackhouse, Suarez has averaged a 21st place finish in the crown jewel event. For a driver (and team) needing to find positive momentum, the Coca-Cola 600 might not be the place for it to happen.
Martin Truex Jr
Heading into the second half of the regular season, Martin Truex Jr has been the best driver to not pick up a win yet. His average finish of 10.2 ranks second overall and is 2.2 spots better than the third best driver. While it might seem like another 2022 season incoming for Truex, he is running more consistently near the front this season. In 2022, Truex only collected 4 Top-5s. Through 13 races this season, Truex has already hit that number of Top-5s. Truex has been in battles for the win, most notably at Bristol and Richmond. It seems to be more of a question of when rather than if it happens.
A two-time winner of the Coca-Cola 600, Martin Truex Jr could ride that Toyota intermediate speed to another 600 win. Another notable race where Truex looked game for the win was Kansas. If not for that Kyle Busch caution, Truex likely passes teammate Denny Hamlin for the win. The speed shown by the Joe Gibbs Racing entries bodes well for Truex this weekend. Plus, Truex finished third in this race last year. As long as misfortune can avoid the 19 team throughout the 400 laps, Truex could be the front runner from the Toyota camp.
Austin Dillon
At some point, Austin Dillon will surely turn around this massive slump in performance. 2023 was an awful year for Dillon and the 3 team. Unfortunately, 2024 has been worse. Through 13 races, Dillon only has 1 Top-10 and sits 31st in points. He cannot blame DNFs this time though, as Dillon has yet to DNF in a race. Outside of the Daytona 500, only the lack of speed and execution can be blamed for how poorly the season is going. However, all can be forgiven with an incredible run. How could one predict a good run for Dillon after how abysmal this season has been? Well, Dillon magically pulls out crown jewel gems from nowhere.
Austin Dillon has knack for winning the marque events in NASCAR. The grandson of Richard Childress already has a Coca-Cola 600 win on his resume, along with a Daytona 500. He has flashed surprising runs during the Southern 500 as well. Why not this season? If you want some rationale, Dillon’s lone Top-10 this season came at Texas. While the two tracks are not identical, they share a similar shape. A solid run at Texas could indicate promising potential for the 3 team in Charlotte. It might not be much, but any positive indication for a better season post All-Star break is surely welcomed by the team. Dillon could start a second-half resurgence via a strong showing in Charlotte.
Todd Gilliland
Todd Gilliland seems to be in the midst of a career best season. Gilliland has been seen more frequently running in the Top-10, including leading laps in 5 races thus far this season. While the statistics do not seem to imply this big jump, the eye test tells you that he is running better. Heading into the All-Star break, Gilliland was riding high after two strong runs. At Kansas, a bit of strategy saw Gilliland maintain a Top-10 position for the bulk of the final stage. Ultimately, he netted his third Top-15 of the season. If not for his pit crew, Darlington should have been a Top-10 based on how well he ran all race long.
With the noticeably better performance from Ford in recent weeks, Gilliland has a good shout at bringing home a Top-10 this weekend. His two starts on the oval at Charlotte have not netted him one yet. However, Front Row (with their Tier 1 Ford status) has improved this season. Gilliland also sits 22nd in points, which is 6 spots better than he finished last season. Although, Gilliland did get off to similarly solid start to 2023. A DNF in the Coca-Cola 600 last year started the mild derailment of his season. If Todd Gilliland can secure a net positive result this season, it will help keep him away from the dreaded summer slump.
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