Starting this weekend, the summer slate of races will officially kick off. The NASCAR Cup Series will head to Illinois for the third time to compete at the WWT Raceway. Also known as Gateway, the St. Louis adjacent track should offer another solid outing. While never being a barn burner, WWT Raceway has avoided being a dreadful experience. With the NextGen car, that is an accomplishment based on the type of track Gateway is. Last year, the main story from the race was broken brake rotors. In all, 5 drivers had their days ended by failing brakes, mostly when entering Turn 1. Most notably, Noah Gragson crashed hard into the wall, forcing him to miss the next race at Sonoma. Will the teams have the brake rotor situation resolved for this weekend? If so, who will be the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the Enjoy Illinois 300?
After leaving Charlotte, there has been plenty of news to discuss in the NASCAR world. Stewart-Haas Racing is shutting down their operation completely, effective at the end of the season. Meanwhile, Front Row Motorsports announced they have bought a third charter (assumedly from SHR). As of this writing, there has been no official decision whether Kyle Larson will be granted a waiver for missing the Coca-Cola 600. Plenty of news to help bring attention to NASCAR as they head to the Enjoy Illinois 300. With a lot of noise off the track, it is a wonder if that will bleed over onto to the track. Especially during practice and qualifying, where drivers are more available to media in between runs. These headlines definitely help pinpoint which 5 drivers are worth paying attention to this weekend.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Kyle Larson
The most talked about driver over the past two weeks will continue to remain in the headlines. Kyle Larson’s waiver situation will be a topic of discussion, even after NASCAR (likely) decides to grant him one. While the majority of fans, drivers, and media agree with granting Larson a waiver, there are a vocal minority that fairly point out the sticky situation this exposes (and how useless the rule is).
Looking past the waiver process, it will be interesting to see how Kyle Larson responds this weekend after the emotional letdown of last weekend. There was a lot of hype and excitement surrounding his attempt at the double. Not only did Larson fail to run both races, a mistake in the Indy 500 ruined a potential Top-5. Then, Larson hurries to Concord to get ready to jump in his Cup Series car to have rain pull the rug out from under him. That double gut-punch could have an effect on Larson heading into WWT Raceway.
While an emotional hangover could happen, Larson could also come out with a vengeance. With that frustration, he could turn disappointment into a drive to dominate his next Cup Series race. With that said, WWT Raceway has not proven to be a great track for Larson. Through 2 races, Larson has only led 5 laps. He did finish with a Top-5 last year, but failed to finish Top-10 in 2022. Still, the storylines heading into the weekend are worthy enough to keep an eye on Larson.
Denny Hamlin
Heading into the Enjoy Illinois 300, the Cup Series has a new points leader: Denny Hamlin. Due to Kyle Larson missing the Coca-Cola 600, Hamlin inherited the points lead after a Top-5 on Sunday. Currently, Hamlin leads teammate Martin Truex Jr by 5 points and Larson by 6. Will Hamlin leave Gateway as the points leader?
In his 2 starts at Gateway, Hamlin has failed to lead a lap. However, he did finish second in this race last year. Meanwhile, his 2022 efforts were undone by a loss of power steering. That resulted in a DNF. Despite the DNF and lack of laps led, Hamlin should be a frontrunner on Sunday. Hamlin has received stage points in 3 of 4 stages between the two races. When he finishes a stage in the Top-10, his worst stage result is fourth. Clearly, Hamlin has taken to WWT Raceway well. He simply has not found his way to the lead yet.
Perhaps the most concerning factor for Hamlin (and all Toyota) is the brake issues. Both 23XI Racing cars last year had a brake failure. Christopher Bell suffered a brake failure at Phoenix in the Championship Race, a track with similar stress on the brakes to Gateway. What will offset that concern is knowing that Joe Gibbs Racing avoided the brake failures in last year’s Gateway race. Surely, the Toyota teams have learned from the failures in order to prevent them this year. If that is the case, Denny Hamlin could leave Illinois as the season’s first four-time winner.
Carson Hocevar
Last year, Carson Hocevar turned heads in his Cup Series debut at WWT Raceway. Due to Chase Elliott’s suspension, Corey LaJoie was tabbed to fill in for Elliott in the 9 car. Spire Motorsports called up Hocevar to drive in the 7 car for LaJoie. Before a brake rotor issue, Hocevar impressed many with how well he handled the NextGen car and Gateway. He outdrove LaJoie in his car while LaJoie struggled mightily in the 9 car. Everyone thought that race would be a breakout opportunity for LaJoie. Instead, it turned out to be a coming out performance for Hocevar.
With his performance last year, what are the expectations for Hocevar this year? It would not be bombastic to say that Hocevar has a great chance at putting the 77 in the Top-10. He already collected a Top-10 at Texas. Meanwhile, he finished 15th at Phoenix. Why not a Top-10 at Gateway? Hocevar’s Craftsman Truck Series experience will be valuable as well. In his 4 Truck Series starts at the track, he has a Top-5 and 2 Top-10s. Clearly, that served him well last year. A bit more than a dark horse, Carson Hocevar will be one to watch this weekend. Even if he fails to finish in the Top-10, he will surely outdrive his equipment as he continues to have an impressive rookie campaign.
Ryan Preece
With the announcement of Stewart-Haas Racing suspending operations at the end of the 2024 season, the silly season whirlwind kicked into high gear. Where is Rodney Childers going to go next year? What about Chase Briscoe, Josh Berry, and Noah Gragson? Will Ford retain any or all of those three? How about the Xfinity Series drivers? In all of the hubbub, Ryan Preece was the odd man left out. While there were some questions about his future, Preece was mostly left as an afterthought. Likely due to the assumption Preece was not going to return to SHR if they remained, there has been little dialogue about his 2025 plans.
To be fair, Ryan Preece has not been the needle mover than Tony Stewart was hoping he would be in the 41 car. Preece has been a sideways (at best) move from Cole Custer. This season has continued that trend, as Preece only has a single Top-10 (Martinsville) and sits 28th in points. With the knowledge of not retaining his current ride, Preece needs to step it up if he wants to remain in the Cup Series next season. As the other three SHR drivers have been showing the organization’s improvement, Preece has been the representation of the status quo.
Preece has demonstrated that he has the ability to drive well in NASCAR’s top series. However, that talent needs to shine through in the remaining 22 races of the season. With Gateway similar to where Preece runs well, this weekend could be the start of a season rebound.
Daniel Hemric
From Texas through Charlotte, Daniel Hemric has been showcasing better performances. While he started off the season with 3 straight Top-20s, he hit a rough patch of 5 races of finishes 28th or worse. However, Texas saw the 31 car finish in the Top-20. That led to back-to-back Top-10s at Talladega and Dover. Although Kansas and Darlington were not ideal, Hemric flashed speed during the Coca-Cola 600. He ran inside the Top-20 throughout the race while battling against better equipped cars.
Obviously, Kaulig Racing has been put under microscope throughout the 2024 season. Their Cup Series operation returned to only having one fulltime driver. In the Xfinity Series, their continued dip in performance is starting to become the norm rather than a surprise. Even after a Top-5 in Charlotte, AJ Allmendinger was despondent in his post race interview. With all the negative attention, solid runs from Hemric are necessary bright spots. If Chris Rice is to believed, Kaulig Racing is going to remain in the Cup Series. They will not merge or sell a charter to Trackhouse, which has been rumored. If Hemric can continue this bit of solid momentum, it might help quiet those rumors.
The struggle for Daniel Hemric this week is that he has not driven at Gateway since 2016. While his 2 Truck Series starts resulted in 2 Top-10s, that was 8 years ago. Hemric will face an uphill battle this weekend in the Enjoy Illinois 300.
Critical Path Security is a cyber security firm protecting clients in the United States and the world beyond. Founded in 2017, they are as dedicated as ever to providing coverage for their clients in numerous industries. Please give them a follow (X, Facebook, LinkedIn) and thank them for their weekly sponsorship of the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch.
