NASCAR fans might be in for a treat of solid races over the course of the next few weeks. Kansas produced an all-time great race with a historic finish. Now, the Cup Series shifts to Darlington Raceway. No matter the generation of car, Darlington usually produces quality racing. The NextGen era has been no different. Plus, this weekend is throwback weekend for NASCAR. Since its inception, throwback weekend has been a favorite among fans. It has rejuvenated the Darlington races and help boost intrigue. While not every team participates, there are plenty of great throwbacks to gaze upon this weekend. Will the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch be dawning a throwback scheme for the Goodyear 400?
Darlington Raceway is the ultimate drivers’ track. For some, it does not matter the equipment that they are in. They still find a way to the front at Darlington. The intriguing layout of the turns push the drivers to the limit. Wall-riding is a must and every car in the field will end up having that infamous stripe on the right side. It is the perfect track to head to before the All-Star break next week. After the incredible finish at Kansas, some are wondering if Ford is jinxed for the 2024 season. Between all three national series, Ford has finished second 7 times with a margin of defeat under a second combined. Will Ford breakthrough this weekend? Are there any Ford drivers you need to keep an eye on for the Goodyear 400? Who are this week’s 5 Drivers to Watch?
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Chase Elliott
Darlington has been a bit of a mixed bag for Chase Elliott. Usually competitive at the track, Elliott lacks any wins or consistent runs of good finishes. However, he has been part of memorable moments that ruined his race. Who can forget “not clear jackass” with Martin Truex Jr or flipping Kyle Busch the bird after wrecking (both in 2020). In this race last year, Elliott finished in the Top-5 but felt that he could have battled for the win. Through 14 starts, Elliott has 4 Top-5s and 7 Top-10s. However, when he does not finish Top-10, his average finish is 28th.
Could this be the year that Elliott finds victory lane in South Carolina? His recent results point to Elliott rounding into his expected form. Over the past 6 races, Elliott has 5 Top-5s. His only non Top-5 result came at Talladega. Elliott is riding a hot streak, which bodes well for his chances Sunday. Now, should he be favored over his own Hendrick teammate in Kyle Larson? Probably not. However, you should expect another Top-5 run from Elliott. In his Dale Earnhardt Jr throwback, consider Chase Elliott in that second tier of potential race winners behind Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr.
Harrison Burton
Although Harrison Burton’s Cup career has not gone swimmingly thus far, Darlington Raceway has been the one track that has consistently given him the best results. Out of any track he has started at more than twice, Darlington is Burton’s best average finish at 19.5. That average finish would be better had it not been for a DNF last fall. At the time of the incident (where Burton was collateral damage), Burton was running 13th. Something about Darlington clicks for the young Ford driver.
So far, 2024 has been another disappointing season for Harrison Burton. Heading into the season, the feeling was that Burton would be on the hot seat if he did not show improvement. Through 12 races, Burton currently sits 33rd in points (worse than where he finished last year) and an average finish of 28. Barring a massive turn around, Burton’s time in the 21 could be running low. If Burton is to turn it around, a good start would come this weekend at Darlington. After his Top-10 last year, it kicked off a decent 5 race stretch for Burton. Maybe another solid run this year will do the same for the driver of the 21.
Erik Jones
Speaking of drivers who are good at Darlington, Erik Jones will return to his 43 car this weekend. Corey Heim filled in for Legacy Motor Club after Jones injured his back in an accident at Talladega. Despite being cleared last week, Legacy Motor Club decided to hold off on Jones’s return for one week. Now, Jones returns at his best track. In 12 starts, Jones holds an average finish of 11.8. That is half a position better than his next best (active) track. Not only does Jones have that impressive average finish, he is the proud owner of two Southern 500 trophies.
Although he medically cleared, the question still remains whether Jones is returning at 100%. As seen last year with Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman, being cleared does not mean a driver will simply return to form. With Darlington as the first race back, it will be a good measuring stick to see how well Jones is (potentially) feeling. Rarely has Jones had an off-race at Darlington. Out of his 12 starts, only once has Jones finished outside the Top-20 while finishing the race. If Jones is noticeably absent from the battle for a Top-10, it could mean he is not completely comfortable after his Talladega injury.
Carson Hocevar
An unexpected name you might want to keep your eye on this weekend is Carson Hocevar. Across the three series in 6 starts, Hocevar’s worst finish at Darlington Raceway is 17th. That came last year in the Southern 500 while driving for Legacy Motor Club in their 42 entry. Hocevar has been impressive in his limited action at Darlington. In 4 Truck Series starts, Hocevar has picked up 3 Top-5s. Meanwhile, his lone Xfinity start at Darlington saw Hocevar wheel Spire’s 77 car from 25th to 6th. Clearly, Hocevar has knack for this track.
Currently, Carson Hocevar ranks as the best rookie out of the trio. He leads Josh Berry by 4 points with a .7 better average finish. However, some bad luck has played a factor in why those two are so close. Primarily last week at Kansas, where Hocevar ran mostly inside the Top-20 at Kansas. However, a tire issue late saw a potential Top-15 turn into a 24th place finish. Outside of a few impressive runs from Josh Berry, Hocevar has been the best rookie through the first 12 races. Considering where his Spire teammates are currently ranked, Hocevar is rightly turning heads. Darlington has the potential to be another race where Hocevar impresses.
Chase Briscoe
After Texas, Chase Briscoe was riding high on good momentum. Texas was back-to-back Top-10s, along with a couple of 13ths at Bristol and Richmond. Along with Noah Gragson, Briscoe was helping rejuvenate the talk around Stewart-Haas Racing. Since the Top-10 at Texas, Briscoe has failed to earn another one in the 3 races since. While the results are not terrible, the runs that have led to the middling results have been a bit worrisome. Especially the past two weekends, where Briscoe has qualified in the Top-10 but never flashed the speed to maintain that position. Now, the driver of the 14 heads to a track where he yet to finish inside the Top-10 in his Cup career.
Chase Briscoe can drive Darlington well, as seen by his notably win in the Xfinity Series over Kyle Busch. However, it has not yet clicked at the Cup Series level. Through 6 starts, Briscoe’s best finish at the Lady in Black is 11th, which came in his first effort in 2021. Once again, the results are not terrible though. Only once has Briscoe finished outside the Top-20. While the results are fine, the looping data demonstrates that Briscoe has struggled to be competitive. Since his rookie race at Darlington, Briscoe has failed to run more than half of a race’s laps inside the Top-15. Granted, he came close during last year’s Southern 500 (46.3%). Briscoe still holds onto a tentative playoff spot, but he needs to start stacking some good runs and results. It was around Darlington last year where his season came undone.
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