The NASCAR Cup Series has officially hit the halfway point of the regular season. With that, the All-Star Race weekend in North Wilkesboro is here. Leading into this All-Star break was silly season kicking off into full swing. So far, there have been two driver announcements for the 2025 season. First, the less surprising news of Ricky Stenhouse signing an extension with JTG Daugherty Racing. However, the second bit of news was a little more shocking. At season’s end, Michael McDowell will be leaving Front Row Motorsports to drive for Spire Motorsports in the 71 car next season. Based on what certain reporters have been implying, this silly season might be a wild one. With the Cup Series heading to the newly repaved North Wilkesboro, it is time to review the drivers who entered the 2024 Cup Series season on the hot seat.
The initial list of drivers that will be featured below comes from the Days to Daytona series from the preseason. In the silly season edition of the series, the most notable Cup Series drivers who were on some form of hot seat entering the season were previewed. Now that 13 races have been completed, it is the appropriate time to review those drivers. Based on how well their season is going, contractual status, and the rumor mill, an updated status for their hot seat will be given. How are the Cup Series hot seat drivers doing thus far?
Austin Dillon
Preseason Hot Seat Gauge: Low
After an abysmal 2023 campaign, the idea of Austin Dillon perhaps finding some heat under his butt this year made more headway. Now, that could have been more fans of the 3 car hoping than it being reality. Still, Dillon’s 2023 was bad enough to at least get the conversation started. 2024 was an opportunity to squash those rumblings by bouncing back. Unfortunately, 2024 is looking about as ugly as 2023.
Actually, 2024 has been worse so far compared to last year. Dillon currently sits 31st in points with an average finish of 25.5. Here is the kicker though: that is without any DNFs. The big issue for Dillon last year was a series high 10 DNFs. Sure, the speed was not there either but the DNFs hurt the points position. This year, the team is simply bad. It only took 7 races for Keith Rodden to get fired. Even with Justin Alexander returning, the performances have not been much better.
Outside of the Daytona 500, no race has seen Austin Dillon get enough damage to use as an excuse either. Bottom line, 2023 is looking more like a trend than an outlier.
Hot Seat Gauge: Low
With all that said, the hot seat gauge is going to remain low. From how it looks, that 3 car will be Austin Dillon’s unless he wants to walk away from it. Is that possible? With how poorly the team is running, there is a chance that Dillon speeds up his eventual transition into a managerial roll in the family business. While no one should expect it for the 2025 season, it might not be that far off. Especially considering the two talents in the Xfinity Series, there might be good enough reason for Dillon to step aside.
Does this mean that Dillon can run as poorly as possible and keep his ride? No. Based on Ty Dillon’s career, it is clear that Richard Childress will not simply hand opportunities to his grandsons based purely on familial ties. It might give them more rope, but there is a point where Childress will shut it down. However, Austin Dillon has been a solid (yet unremarkable) Cup Series driver prior to 2023. That gives him some room to turn around his season. When it is time to review this conversation at the end of the regular season, a 30th-plus position in points might have that seat warming a bit.
Prediction for 2025 #3 RCR Driver: Austin Dillon
Noah Gragson
Preseason Hot Seat Gauge: Hot
Noah Gragson entered the 2024 season with a lot to prove. While some questioned his maturity after his suspension, the main subject for debate was whether Gragson was good enough for the Cup Series. Even without the suspension, there was a strong chance that Gragson was gone from Legacy Motor Club. Averaging an average finish of 28.2 with only one non-superspeedway Top-20 did not cut it. When you were outdriven by Ty Dillon in the same equipment, that speaks volumes.
Still, Noah Gragson demonstrated enough talent in his lower series career to warrant another chance. That opportunity came with Stewart-Haas Racing in their 10 car. Replacing Aric Almirola, Gragson would need to prove to be quiet off the track yet loud with results. Through 13 races, that has been exactly what Gragson has been. Gragson is nearly averaging a Top-15 finishing position. Heading into the All-Star break, Gragson has 7 straight Top-20 finishes. It has been an impressive comeback to watch. Along with Chase Briscoe, Gragson has been spearheading the revival of Stewat-Haas Racing.
Hot Seat Gauge: Moderate
Why would Noah Gragson still have any version of a hot seat? Based purely on his results, he would not. Through 13 races, Gragson is proving to Stewart-Haas Racing that he was a worthy investment of their time and money. A young driver still, it is easy to envision Gragson growing within the organization with Drew Blickensderfer as his crew chief. Seeing the 10 car run this consistently has been a breath of fresh air. However, silly season is not always based on results.
From what the rumor mill is churning out, it seems highly likely that Stewart-Haas Racing is preparing for some form of a charter/organizational shake up. From charter sales to merging with another team, it seem inevitable that Stewart-Haas Racing will not be a 4-car Ford team next season. Most reports have SHR selling at least two of their charters, cutting down to a 2-car operation. If that is the case, it is difficult to envision Gragson being chosen to stay over Chase Briscoe and Josh Berry. While Gragson could not return to SHR, his 2024 season thus far will lead to an opportunity next season. There is a chance that the new opportunity could be better than his current ride.
Prediction for #10 SHR Driver: Charter Sold
Harrison Burton
Preseason Hot Seat Gauge: Scorched
No driver faced the amount of pressure to perform (to keep their job) than Harrison Burton. After two disappointing seasons in the Wood Brothers 21, Burton had to step up his game in order to get a fourth year with the team. Despite the perceived dip in performance with Team Penske, the 21 car has proven to be playoff caliber prior to Burton taking over. While no one was expecting a playoff birth for Burton this season, competing for a Top-25 spot in the points was a reasonable expectation.
Instead, Harrirson Burton seemingly has taken another step backwards in his progression. Outside of the superspeedways, Burton has firmly been a back marker. His best non-superspeedway finish came last week at Darlington with a 22nd place result. Lead lap finishes are difficult to find as well. Unless it is a superspeedway or road course, the only way Burton is finishing on the lead lap is through caution heavy races. Sure, Ford might be having well-documented issues. But that does not excuse trailing a Rick Ware Racing driver by 18 points when running for essentially Penske’s fourth car.
Hot Seat Gauge: Engulfed in Flames
The only saving grace for Harrison Burton is his DEX sponsorship. However, that will likely not be enough to keep his seat. There are other Ford drivers who have funding that could replace Burton in the 21 car. Barring an unprecedented recovery, Burton will be gone from the Wood Brothers. While undoubtedly a setback, it might give Burton an opportunity to reset his career. It has worked for other drivers, such as John Hunter Nemechek and seemingly Cole Custer. Burton has talent, but maybe getting the boot will kick him into overdrive to claw his way back to the Cup Series.
As for the 21 car, who will be the driver next year? There are plenty of options as the market sits right now. In the Xfinity Series, Riley Herbst or Cole Custer could be Ford drivers to make the move. Kaz Grala or Justin Haley might be options that are running in the Cup Series right now. If the team wanted to go with an outside Ford candidate, then the likes of Sam Mayer, Chandler Smith, or Sheldon Creed could be options.
However, the questions around Stewart-Haas Racing might have to be answered before any movement is made for the Wood Brothers. If the rumors end up being true, then Noah Gragson could be without a ride for 2025. With how well he has run this season, it would make sense for Ford wanting to keep him under their umbrella. The big question is whether the 21 struggles come down to team or driver. Gragson at the helm would likely answer that question.
Prediction for #21 Wood Brothers Driver: Noah Gragson
Todd Gilliland
Preseason Hot Seat Gauge: Moderately Low
Last season, Front Row Motorsports had three Cup level drivers for only two chartered rides. Ultimately, Front Row decided to stick with their Cup tandem of Michael McDowell and Todd Gilliland. Zane Smith left for Trackhouse Racing, spending a season on loan with Spire Motorsports. By the nature of that decision, there was going to be eyes on Gilliland to see if Front Row made the right decision. Plus, Front Row operates on a year to year basis when it comes to their driver contracts. Naturally, Gilliland found himself on somewhat of a hot seat.
On paper, Todd Gilliland’s start to 2024 has been a dip in performance compared to last year. Through the first 13 races, most of Gilliland’s numbers look better in 2023 than they do this season. This includes average finish, Top-10s, Top-20s, and points scored. However, the eye test would tell you that Gilliland in having a career season. Gilliland has led 95 laps thus far and currently sits 22nd in points. Darlington might have been his best non-superspeedway race. The 38 car was able to maintain a Top-10 position for portions of the race. Plus, Gilliland has 2 more lead lap finishes at this point compared to last year.
When comparing Gilliland to Zane Smith, the choice to stick with Gilliland seems to be the right one. While it might be unfair to compare a rookie to a driver in their third year, the continued improvement of Gilliland with Front Row is noticeable. As Smith flounders with Spire, Gilliland is rewarding Front Row a solid return on their investment.
Hot Seat Gauge: Low
When it comes to Front Row Motorsports, nothing is ever a guarantee. However, it feels like a safe bet that Todd Gilliland will return to the 38 car next year. Especially with the departure of Michael McDowell, it would seem foolish to completely replace both Cup seats in one silly season.
Rumblings have Front Row as players for either acquiring a charter or performing some form of merger with Stewart-Haas Racing. In either situation, surely Todd Gilliland retains his ride.
Prediction for #38 Front Row Driver: Todd Gilliland
Ryan Preece
Preseason Hot Seat Gauge: Moderate
Year 1 of the Ryan Preece experience looked eerily similar to Cole Custer’s 2022 in the NextGen car. Tony Stewart had to drag Gene Haas kicking and screaming into replacing Custer with the modified veteran. The move did pan out well for Custer. In a single Xfinity Series season, Custer repaired his image by winning multiple races and the championship. That one season saw the reintroduction of murmurs about when Custer would return to the Cup Series for Stewart-Haas Racing or any Ford team. This included the 41 car.
Ryan Preece’s poor 2023 got chalked up to Stewart-Haas Racing struggles rather than putting much blame on the driver. If both Preece and Custer could not muster much performance in the 41, then it is likely the fault of the team. However, 2024 has been a damning indictment of Ryan Preece. While his other three teammates have demonstrated a resurgence of SHR, Preece is simply there. He is clearly the fourth driver of the SHR crew and has shown little fight to wedge himself any higher. Even Martinsville did not net any significant results, as his lone Top-10 lacked any laps led.
Hot Seat Gauge: Scorched
With all the Stewart-Haas Racing rumors floating around, one thing seems clear: Ryan Preece is not in their future plans. When reading or listening to anyone talk about the potential downsizing of SHR, Preece is the driver that is easily tossed aside while the conversation shifts to picking between Chase Briscoe, Josh Berry, and Noah Gragson. Simply put, Ryan Preece has done little to reestablish himself as a driver who needs to remain in the Cup Series.
If Stewart-Haas was to keep all four charters, would Ryan Preece still have a ride next year? That would be an interesting conversation. With how well Cole Custer has run in the Xfinity Series, it would seem more likely that Custer would return to the 41 if it remains with SHR next season. Preece has not been the boost that Stewart was hoping that he would be. Since all signs point to at least one charter leaving SHR, that means Preece’s time with SHR in Cup is likely over by the end of 2024.
Prediction for #41 SHR Driver: Charter Sold
Alex Bowman
Preseason Hot Seat Gauge: Moderate
The big question for Alex Bowman this season was how much did his back injury from last year play into his poor performance. Before his injury, Bowman was the most consistent driver in the Cup Series. He had the best average finish and would have sat in the Top-3 of points if not for a points penalty at Richmond. Through the first 10 races, Bowman had an average finish of 10.3 and only finished outside the Top-15 once. When he returned, his average finish ballooned to 20.1 while he only managed to pick up 4 Top-10s. That is 2 less Top-10s in 23 races compared to the 6 he pulled off in the first 10.
After a bit of slow start post Daytona 500, Alex Bowman has rediscovered the consistent form that he had at the start of 2023. Since Phoenix, Bowman’s numbers look similar to his beginning of 2023. In the past 9 races, Bowman only has one finish outside the Top-20 while averaging a 10.9 finish. Take out his DNF at Texas, that average improves to 7.6. Now, Bowman still ranks as the fourth driver at Hendrick Motorsports. The results look good, but Bowman has not been running near the front in any of these races (except Dover). Honestly, it feels surprising to see Bowman’s name in the Top-10 after watching the most recent races.
Hot Seat Gauge: Cold
While expectations are high at Hendrick Motorsports, it would be baffling to see Alex Bowman lose his ride if he keeps performing like this. Sure, winning is important to the organization. Bowman has not won a race since spring Las Vegas of 2022. That lengthy winless streak is noticeable next to his three teammates who all have at least one win. With that said, it would be difficult to find an available replacement who will driver better than the man with the sixth best average finish.
Unless Hendrick Motorsports could poach an established top Cup talent, who could you select to do better than Alex Bowman? As evidence by the recent rookies, a lower series callup will take at least 2-3 years before they potentially look like viable contenders. While Bowman is not impressing in the 48, he is doing good work behind the wheel. More than likely, the 48 will find victory lane before the season is up. Along with that, Bowman will at least advance through the first round of the playoffs. Are there higher expectations for Hendrick Motorsports than that? Yes. Is Bowman that far off from hitting those high expectations? Not really.
Prediction for #48 Hendrick Motorsports Driver: Alex Bowman
Daniel Suarez
Preseason Hot Seat Gauge: Scorched
One of the hottest seats entering the 2024 season was Daniel Suarez. Despite seemingly having safety due to being the original Trackhouse driver, the numbers game was the pressuring force. At the time of this writing, Trackhouse only has two charters. Ross Chastain is now the face of Trackhouse, both via marketing and performance. His seat is safe. However, Suarez faces pressure from Zane Smith and Shane van Gisbergen. Both Smith and Gisbergen could be Cup Series drivers in 2025.
At this point in the season, Suarez is a fascinating driver to monitor for silly season. His win at Atlanta by .003 seconds essentially locked him into the playoffs. While it is a superspeedway, a win is a win and a playoff spot is valuable. However, is that win enough to keep his seat safe? Through the first 5 races, it seemed that Suarez was on the path to cooling off his seat. Sure, his win was the only Top-10 on the season, but he was running in Top-15 most weeks and only a Daytona 500 DNF was a result outside the Top-20.
Since leaving Bristol, the season taken an ugly turn. Outside of a Top-5 at Texas, Suarez has been a nonfactor. In the past 8 races, Suarez’s average finish is 21.9 with 6 finishes outside the Top-20. The worst of these results is COTA, where Suarez simply missed the mark and finished in 31st. While he sits 18th in points, only once in the past 7 races has Suarez scored more than 20 points. While points do not matter since he has a win, the lack of stage points and results implies a brief run in the playoffs.
Hot Seat Gauge: Hot
It is difficult to pinpoint exactly where the hot seat gauge is for Daniel Suarez. On one hand, the win/playoff spot helps bring some security while Justin Marks has voiced support for Suarez remaining. At the same time, Zane Smith officially does not have a known chartered ride for 2025 currently. Plus, Suarez has been having another disappointing season outside of Atlanta and Texas. The season has been so poor that Suarez took to social media to apologize for his recent results.
Ultimately, Suarez’s hot seat comes down to what Trackhouse Racing does as an organization. They are a constant presence in any charter sale talks. With Michael McDowell taking over the 71 next year, Smith needs a ride. It is debatable whether Shane van Gisbergen is Cup Series ready at this point, but it is feasible that Trackhouse wants a spot for the New Zealander next year. Not only have there been rumors about Trackhouse buying Stewart-Haas Racing’s charters, but also a potential merger with Kaulig Racing. In the event of any of these scenarios playing out, Suarez likely keeps his ride at least for 2025. If Trackhouse cannot acquire at least one charter, then the debate between Suarez and Smith will be an interesting one. However, it could be a short reprieve for Suarez. Remember, Connor Zilisch is signed with Trackhouse and could be on a fast track to Cup.
Prediction for #99 Trackhouse Driver: Daniel Suarez
