This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 All-Star Cup race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: All-Star-Race (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: William Byron
Finished: 6th
Last weeks winner: Brad Keselowski
Projected Finish: 4th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Christopher Bell, 13th)
-16 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-5 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished 20+ spots worse than they were projected to finish
-18 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the projected Top 14 drivers finished in the Top 14
Notes from all projections this year (13 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 21 of 485, 4.33%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 207 of 485, 42.68%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 183 of 485, 37.73%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 13, 15.38%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 61 of 130, 46.92%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Kyle Busch
Note: *Denotes driver from Open race. The Top 3 Open drivers in the projection are in the All-Star Race projection below, this will be switched before the All-Star Race if other drivers make it instead.
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 2nd -1 |
| 2. | 22 | Joey Logano | 1st +1 |
| 3. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 12th -9 |
| 4. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 8th -4 |
| 5. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 14th -9 |
| 6. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 17th -11 |
| 7. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 16th -9 |
| 8. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 5th +3 |
| 9. | 54 | *Ty Gibbs | 13th -4 |
| 10. | 48 | *Bubba Wallace | 6th +4 |
| 11. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 15th -4 |
| 12. | 24 | William Byron | 19th -7 |
| 13. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 3rd +10 |
| 14. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 4th +10 |
| 15. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 7th +8 |
| 16. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 9th +7 |
| 17. | 10 | *Noah Gragson | 11th +6 |
| 18. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20th -2 |
| 19. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 10th +9 |
| 20. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18th +2 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
