This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Charlotte race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Charlotte (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 2nd
Last weeks winner: Joey Logano
Projected Finish: 2nd
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-5 of the 20 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-8 of the 20 drivers finished 8+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the projected Top 10 drivers finished in the Top 10
Notes from all point race projections this year (13 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 21 of 485, 4.33%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 207 of 485, 42.68%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 183 of 485, 37.73%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 13, 15.38%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 61 of 130, 46.92%
Notable results this week
Winner: Martin Truex Jr.
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Ryan Preece
Note: With Kyle Larson missing the Coca-Cola 600 start I have removed Kyle Larson from his 2nd place finish originally in the article and put Justin Allgaier where the stats say to put him based on the speed in the car mostly.
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 12th -11 |
| 2. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 6th -4 |
| 3. | 24 | William Byron | 3rd +0 |
| 4. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 5th -1 |
| 5. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 4th +1 |
| 6. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 15th -9 |
| 7. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 1st +6 |
| 8. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 9th -1 |
| 9. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 8th +1 |
| 10. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 7th +3 |
| 11. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 38th -27 |
| 12. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 39th -27 |
| 13. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 31st -18 |
| 14. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 25th -11 |
| 15. | 4 | Josh Berry | 10th +5 |
| 16. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 11th +5 |
| 17. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 16th +1 |
| 18. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 21st -3 |
| 19. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 24th -5 |
| 20. | 5 | Justin Allgaier | 13th +7 |
| 21. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 23rd -2 |
| 22. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 2nd +20 |
| 23. | 22 | Joey Logano | 14th +9 |
| 24. | 51 | Justin Haley | 22nd +2 |
| 25. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 35th -10 |
| 26. | 43 | Erik Jones | 19th +7 |
| 27. | 71 | Zane Smith | 33rd +6 |
| 28. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 27th +1 |
| 29. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 30th -1 |
| 30. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 20th +10 |
| 31. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 18th +13 |
| 32. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 17th +15 |
| 33. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 32nd +1 |
| 34. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 26th +8 |
| 35. | 50 | Ty Dillon | 36th -1 |
| 36. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 34th +2 |
| 37. | 16 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 28th +9 |
| 38. | 66 | B.J. McLeod | 37th +1 |
| 39. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | 29th +10 |
| 40. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 40th +0 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
