As the NASCAR Cup Series enters the halfway point of the season, silly season has already kicked off massively. While still in June, there have been official announcements that have shaken up how the 2025 lineup will look. Some of these include Michael McDowell going to Spire Motorsports, Stewart-Haas Racing shutting down, and Martin Truex Jr retiring. During the writing of this article, Gene Haas announced he would be retaining one of his charters and the Xfinity Series team. Plus, Todd Gilliland and Ricky Stenhouse Jr signed extensions while Front Row Motorsports have bought a third charter. Madness already, and that does not include the swirling rumors that have been circling. Last year, the same article was done in the latter half of July. However, silly season has kicked off early this year. With the halfway point upon the Cup Series, it is time for the 2024 silly season predictions.
Speaking of last year’s article, the accuracy of those predictions came out to 6 for 11 in the Cup Series. Not too shabby, except most of the correct predictions were due to drivers staying put. Still, for the incorrect guesses, only one did not have the correct driver in the “other candidates” section.
Managing the 2024 Silly Season Landscape
For this article’s predictions, it will only look at the Cup Series silly season. At this point in the season, it is difficult to fathom what Xfinity and Craftsman Truck Series seats are/are not available. Plus, the rumor mill is currently fixated on the Cup Series seats. Additionally, the subject of the three Stewart-Haas Racing charters is up for debate. At the moment, none of the three have been officially been announced as sold to any team. Although, the strong assumption is that Front Row Motorsports bought one for their new third charter.
That leaves two charters without a home. Before the Gene Haas announcement, conventional wisdom was that Trackhouse Racing and 23XI Racing would be buying those two charters. Will that change now that the fourth charter is no longer available? Maybe; there was a long list of teams who were reported as interested in the last charter. Was it the case of availability or will those teams now go after the other two? Conventional wisdom says the assumed landing spots remain the same. However, chaos in silly season can always strikes.
With the available information at this time, this article will see the three SHR charters go to the following teams:
- #36 Front Row Motorsports
- #67 23XI Racing
- #91 Trackhouse Racing
Now that the admin is out of the way, time to see if these 2024 silly season predictions age like milk.
#2 Team Penske
Current Driver: Austin Cindric
2025 Driver: Austin Cindric
Analysis
It is difficult to pinpoint where exactly Austin Cindric’s scale of seat safety he currently holds. The easy assumption would be that Cindric is completely safe from losing his ride, due to his father being Team Penske’s president. Plus, Cindric picked up a win at Gateway to lock himself into the playoffs. Surely, that would mean any potential talk of replacing him in the 2 would be null and void. Yet, here is the #2 Team Penske car in this article.
In a recent article, there was a deep dive into Austin Cindric’s 2024 season, his Gateway win, and how those factors play into his status for next year. To sum it up quickly, Cindric is having a terrible 2024 which does not necessarily mean his Gateway win secures him to the 2 car. With that said, it does not seem likely for Cindric to be replaced at this point. While Cole Custer got the boot after his third year in Cup (despite his father in a high position), Cindric has experienced more success. Outside of the 2 wins, Cindric ran a solid rookie season. It is odd to see a driver backslide as his career progresses, but Team Penske will likely ride out at least one more season with Cindric.
Even if Penske removes Austin Cindric from the 2, he would not leave the organization’s umbrella. The 21 Wood Brothers ride would be his likely landing spot if he is replaced in the 2. If Cindric is gone, then the Stewart-Haas Racing trio available would be the top candidates.
Other Candidates: Chase Briscoe, Josh Berry, & Noah Gragson
#15 Rick Ware Racing
Current Driver: Multi-driver team with Kaz Grala as anchor driver
2025 Driver: Riley Herbst
Analysis
Once again in 2024, the 15 Rick Ware Racing entry is a multi-driver effort. Kaz Grala has been the anchor driver for the 15, as Cody Ware and Riley Herbst have made a handful of starts as well. While the 51 for Rick Ware Racing has been noticeably better, the 15 is still stuck in that back marker status. There have been some highlights, such as Top-20s at Bristol and Darlington. However, the 15 car is still usually running in the 30s and off the lead lap.
With the unknown nature of the Gene Haas’ NASCAR venture moving forward, there is a chance that the SHR drivers with strong Ford connections might be on the way out. Riley Herbst is thought of very highly within the Ford camp, which would lead to one of the Cup teams bringing him in. There is already a relationship between Herbst and Rick Ware Racing. Herbst has made 2 starts in the 15 this year, so it would be sensible to see Herbst get called up to run fulltime. There are rumors of Herbst heading to 23XI Racing, but Ford seems to have a strong desire to keep him in house. A young duo of fulltime drivers along with the RFK Racing alliance could see Rick Ware Racing surge into more consistent competitive runs.
Other Candidates: Multi-driver team, Kaz Grala, & Cody Ware
#16 Kaulig Racing
Current Driver: Multi-man team
2025 Driver: Shane van Gisbergen (on loan from Trackhouse)
Analysis
Arguably, Kaulig Racing is the most intriguing team in this year’s silly season. While other teams have silly season drama, no other team is quite the mystery box Kaulig Racing is. Will they sell one or both of their charters? Could they put a fulltime driver in the 16 car? Instead of selling, maybe they merge with another team like Trackhouse or Richard Childress Racing. With other teams, you can have a general idea of what is going to happen. For Kaulig Racing, it is a bit tough to pinpoint, especially for the 16 car.
Despite the rumors and doubt, Chris Rice denies any intention of Kaulig Racing to downsize their current Cup Series operation or merge with another team. While Trackhouse Racing has been facilitating Shane van Gisbergen’s progression through Kaulig, that (apparently) will not lead to a formal merger of the teams. With all that said, it does not seem feasible for Kaulig to continue the 16 in its current iteration. If the reason for Justin Haley and AJ Allmendinger losing their 2023 rides was financial, how is the 16’s current season benefitting Kaulig?
Although a multi-driver team might be the more logical prediction, Shane van Gisbergen feels like the fulltime driver for the 16 next year. Trackhouse Racing has already loaned out Zane Smith. Why not SVG? Plus, if the new charter deal does limit teams to three, then Trackhouse will need a place for either SVG or Zane Smith to drive. To keep Smith, Trackhouse could loan SVG to an organization that he is already familiar with. It could be considered a strong alliance or “soft merger” to help Kaulig maintain their independence.
Other Candidates: Multi-driver team, Charter sold, & AJ Allmendinger
#19 Joe Gibbs Racing
Current Driver: Martin Truex Jr
2025 Driver: Chase Briscoe
Analysis
As of last week, it is known that Martin Truex Jr is retiring from fulltime Cup Series competition. Joe Gibbs Racing is in the silly season market looking for his replacement. From the initial reporting of Truex’s retirement, Chase Briscoe has emerged as the favorite to land this ride. Currently the top running SHR driver (per points), Briscoe looks to be the most sought after SHR driver. According to Briscoe, he currently has multiple offers on the table. However, few can be as enticing as running for the 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team.
Why Chase Briscoe to the 19 team? From the JGR perspective, they do not want to add another rookie or inexperienced driver to the JGR fold. Ty Gibbs is already serving in that role. Briscoe is a former Cup Series winner who especially shined in the Xfinity Series. While his Cup career thus far has been disappointing, it is difficult to gauge how much of that is on Briscoe. When Briscoe replaced Clint Bowyer in the 14, SHR was already on the decline. At times, Briscoe has shown that Xfinity Series form. Maybe putting him in top equipment will see the return of that form.
Along with the talent reasons, Briscoe should bring funding with him to wherever he goes. Mahindra Tractors and High Point both seem likely to remain key sponsors for Briscoe. If Bass Pro Shops is questionable to remain with JGR, bringing in a talented driver with financial backing is a logical choice.
Other Candidates: John Hunter Nemechek, Erik Jones, & Chandler Smith
#21 Wood Brothers Racing
Current Driver: Harrison Burton
2025 Driver: Josh Berry
Analysis
While not confirmed or announced, it is all but certain that Harrison Burton will not be returning to the 21 Wood Brothers team in 2025. The past 3 seasons have seen the borderline playoff caliber team turn into a bottom dweller with Burton behind the wheel. For Burton, a return to the Xfinity Series will surely be welcome to rehabilitate a still young career. As for the Wood Brothers, who will be the one to replace Burton?
Until the recent reports, it seemed that Chase Briscoe was destined for this spot. However, he does not seem to be the one. Justin Haley’s name has also shot up to lead candidate for the role, but he essentially turned down that notion in a recent media availability. That means the the 21 should go to Josh Berry. If reports are true, Berry would also bring Rodney Childers into the fray as his crew chief. That pairing is exactly what the Wood Brothers need. More than simply a quality driver, but a crew chief who can help boost the entire operation.
Arguably, landing Childers could be the better get than Berry. That is no slight to Berry, who has been impressive in his rookie season. However, Childers is a championship winning crew chief who helped maintain Kevin Harvick’s performance while SHR crumbled around them. As a satellite Penske team, the Berry/Childers duo would help return the Wood Brothers to some resemblance of relevance.
Other Candidates: Chase Briscoe, Noah Gragson, & Riley Herbst
#34 Front Row Motorsports
Current Driver: Michael McDowell
2025 Driver: Noah Gragson
Analysis
Despite the departure of Michael McDowell, things are looking promising for the future of Front Row Motorsports. Prior to Stewart-Haas Racing shutting down, Front Row became a Tier-1 Ford team along with their alliance with Team Penske. Now that SHR will be gone, they can poach high-end talent to further boost their place in the Ford hierarchy. With that extra pep, Front Row bought a third charter for their organization. Assumedly from SHR, Front Row will have 3 fulltime teams in 2025. Todd Gilliland already resigned, so they are still looking for their other 2 drivers.
Prior to Gene Haas announcing his intentions to keep the fourth charter, there was momentum picking up around Noah Gragson to Richard Childress Racing. While that could still happen, Gragson heading to Front Row Motorsports feels more realistic in the current climate. That could change shortly after writing this, but for now, Gragson remains under the Ford banner. Heading to Front Row would be a good move for Gragson. Arguably, the equipment is better at this point with FRM compared to Stewart-Haas Racing. Along with Gilliland, Gragson could help establish Front Row in that next tier of Cup Series teams. As long as 2024 is not a one-off, Gragson and Gilliland could be a strong Front Row tandem for the near future.
Other Candidates: Josh Berry, Ryan Preece, & Riley Herbst
#36 Front Row Motorsports
2025 Driver: Kaz Grala
Analysis
This might be a surprising prediction here. Kaz Grala is currently running a part-time schedule for Rick Ware Racing in the 15. While he is doing an admirable job, most weeks has Grala running toward the tail end of the field. However, Grala is usually a noticeable improvement compared to when Cody Ware and Riley Herbst have been behind the wheel. In terms of getting the most of the equipment, Grala has done the job. However, why Grala to Front Row?
Assuming other drivers sign to where they are predicted, the second Front Row seat is down to either cast-offs or Xfinity drivers. Meanwhile, Grala is running the majority of the Cup Series schedule this season. He will be well-versed with the NextGen car. Plus, he ran the Daytona 500 for Front Row earlier this season. Additionally, Grala is only 25 years old despite driving in a NASCAR national series since 2016. Arguably though, the big thing that might sway Grala into the seat is the funding he brings.
Outside of the Front Row sponsors that have adorned his cars in recent years, one sponsor has been noticeably absent this season: Island Brands USA. Rick Ware Racing does not allow alcoholic companies to be sponsors on their cars. According to Grala himself, Island Brands is still supporting him. After a year away from being on his car (minus an associate spot for the 500), surely they will be looking to have their logo prominently displayed for at least a few races in 2025.
A silly season that drags on with other drivers announcing their moves before Front Row fills out their roster means the likelihood of this choice improves. However, if the rumors of Trackhouse letting Zane Smith go are true, then a reunion between FRM and Smith would be the top choice.
Other Candidates: Zane Smith & Drivers mentioned for the #34
#67 23XI Racing
2025 Driver: Corey Heim
Analysis
Whether it is the 50 or 67, Corey Heim will be the one to pilot a third chartered entry for 23XI Racing. From all accounts, 23XI Racing is a favorite to land one of the SHR charters. Expansion has clearly been on the forefront of the mind for Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan. Their newly built race shop was designed to host working space for up to four cars. Not only does Hamlin and Jordan want to expand, so does Toyota. They are finally catching up in numbers with Ford and Chevy. Other than Trackhouse, 23XI Racing would be the most shocking team to not buy a charter.
Corey Heim is the ideal candidate for the ride. Based on how well Heim is running in the Craftsman Truck Series, there is little reason for him to go to the Xfinity Series. The trucks seem to be a better stepping stone for the NextGen car anyway. While Zane Smith’s transition straight from the Truck Series has been poor, Carson Hocevar is proving that it can be done successfully. Heim has been more successful in the Truck Series than Hocevar was, which should also bode well for him. At Nashville, Heim will be driving a third entry for 23XI as the 50 car. Could that be a quasi-tryout for next season? If he runs well, it should solidify his case for that ride next season. Even if he does not, there is little reason for Heim to run the Xfinity Series schedule in 2025.
Other Candidates: Riley Herbst, Chandler Smith, & Josh Berry
#91 Trackhouse Racing
2025 Driver: Zane Smith
Analysis
Despite the reports that Trackhouse would be willing to cut Zane Smith, it seems far too unlikely to happen. Yes, Zane Smith is in the midst of a terrible rookie season. Currently, he sits last among fulltime driver and only leads the aforementioned Kaz Grala by 18 points. He only has 4 Top-20s finishes and 8 lead lap finishes. Especially when comparing him to fellow rookie (and teammate) Carson Hocevar, Smith seems unprepared for the Cup Series.
However, Zane Smith is still young and currently resides in a precarious situation. Although he is driving for Spire Motorsports, he is a Trackhouse driver. How much meddling Trackhouse does with Smith and the 71 is unknown. Plus, it can easily be the case that Spire spends more of their energy behind their actual two fulltime drivers rather than Smith. Bringing Smith properly into the Trackhouse fold could do wonders for the young driver’s career. Assuming that Trackhouse buys a charter they desperately need, the wise decision would be to bring Smith in. Even if the predicted Shane van Gisbergen loan to Kaulig does not happen, the argument can be made that SVG needs another season of Xfinity racing for the ovals. Either way, Smith in the Trackhouse chartered ride feels the most likely choice.
Other Candidates: Shane van Gisbergen
#99 Trackhouse Racing
Current Driver: Daniel Suarez
2025 Driver: Daniel Suarez
Analysis
If Trackhouse Racing can figure out how to get all their four drivers into suitable rides for 2025, then Daniel Suarez is safe in his 99 seat. Similar to the #2 Team Penske entry, a full breakdown of Daniel Suarez and his ride security can be found in a recent article discussing how his Atlanta win impacts his silly season. That win helps keep Suarez in his seat if Justin Marks and Trackhouse are content that Shane van Gisbergen and Zane Smith are in good spots for 2025. However, if there is driver that needs to be cut, Suarez is not safe from the chopping block.
Yes, there have been continuous reports that Trackhouse and Suarez are working on an extension. However, July is around the corner and the extension has not materialized. Similar to Kyle Busch in 2022, the longer there is no announcement, the higher chance of something falling through. If Trackhouse is forced to pick between SVG, Smith, and Suarez, the best decision would be to have Suarez exit. Especially if you only consider the on-track reasons, Suarez has proven what he is at the Cup Series level. SVG and Smith both have higher upsides than what is known about Suarez’s.
Even if Suarez returns for 2025, it might be another prove it year. Not only does Trackhouse have four Cup ready drivers under contract, Connor Zilisch will be looking for a ride in the near future. While it is doubtful he will be Cup Series ready in 2026, it is not impossible. With Xfinity and Truck Series dates on his calendar for 2025, Zilisch’s performance will dictate how quickly he could be considered Cup ready.
Other Candidates: Zane Smith & Shane van Gisbergen
Haas Factory Team
2025 Driver: Cole Custer
Analysis
In a surprising announcement, Gene Haas declared on June 20th that he was going to retain one of the four Stewart-Haas Racing charters. The newly renamed Haas Factory Team will only have the one Cup team, but also continue utilizing their current race shop as well as running the two Xfinity Series teams. At this point, it is unknown what manufacturer Haas will race or what (if any) alliances the team will have. What seems to be certain at this point is Cole Custer will remain a driver for Haas. With Joe Custer serving as president, it would be unfathomable to see Custer driver for another race team.
Realistically, Cole Custer will be returning to the Cup Series next year. Cole has found success in his return to the Xfinity Series, so a Cup callup is bound to happen. If this team did not form, Custer would have likely landed a Cup ride with Front Row, Wood Brothers, or Rick Ware. The big question is about the manufacturer Haas will use. Ford could be an option, but you cannot rule out Chevy or even Toyota. The more important topic of conversation is what number will the Haas Factory Team run in Cup. Here is hoping for the return of the 00 to the Cup Series.
Other Candidates: Noah Gragson & Ryan Preece
Quick Hits
Not every prediction needed an in-depth analysis. All of these quick hits are drivers who are expected to return to their current rides:
#3 Richard Childress Racing
2025 Driver: Austin Dillon
Austin Dillon’s contract currently runs through the 2025 season. Despite the past two seasons being ones of struggle, there is nothing to indicate Dillon will leave the seat. If he does, it will be on his own terms. The only way Dillon is not driving the 3 car next year is if he steps aside for early retirement to allow Noah Gragson to take over.
#8 Richard Childress Racing
2025 Driver: Kyle Busch
Similar to Austin Dillon, Kyle Busch is under contract through the 2025 season. While Busch discussed never ruling out a return to Hendrick Motorsports or Joe Gibbs Racing, he is not leaving RCR for 2025. Frustration is clearly showing from Busch, but that can be quickly resolved with finishing off some of his recent good runs.
#31 Kaulig Racing
2025 Driver: Daniel Hemric
Unless the charter is sold, Daniel Hemric will be driving a Cup Series entry for Kaulig Racing.
#51 Rick Ware Racing
2025 Driver: Justin Haley
While things said in media interviews can be exaggerated or taken with some salt, there is little reason to believe Justin Haley would leave Rick Ware Racing this season. Some are pointing to the Wood Brothers as a possible destination, but is that really an upgrade for Haley?
