From the rainy days of the northeast to the heat wave in Tennessee, the NASCAR Cup Series will head to Nashville Superspeedway this weekend. Since being introduced to the Cup schedule in 2021, Nashville has been the sight of Chevy dominance. All three Cup winners have come from said manufacturer. With that history, the Chevy drivers will likely be seen to have the edge over the other two manufacturers. Toyota has been more consistent than Ford, which has been lagging at Nashville. Despite Toyota’s effort, Chevy has reigned supreme in Tennessee. Will the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the Ally 400 focus on Chevys? Could a Ford or Toyota driver break the streak?
As the regular season winds down, the playoff cutline will only grow in importance. As the standings look currently, the battle will be down to the 16th and final spot. Chris Buescher and Alex Bowman sit a bit more comfortably ahead of the cutline by 50 and 59 points respectively. Even after a poor result in New Hampshire, Joey Logano passed Bubba Wallace for the last playoff spot. Entering Nasvhille, Logano leads Wallace by 13 points. However, that cutline could be moved up if anyone behind Buescher wins a race. As seen by Michael McDowell last week, desperation mode is starting to kick in. Drivers below the cutline will do drastic things to pick up a win. Will one of those drivers be 1 of the 5 to watch this weekend?
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Chase Briscoe
On Tuesday, Chase Briscoe was officially announced as the replacement for Martin Truex Jr in the 19 starting next season. After posting a second place finish behind future teammate (and horrible secret keeper) Christopher Bell, Briscoe can resume sole focus on getting the 14 car into the playoffs. His silly season situation is resolved.
Prior to New Hampshire, Chase Briscoe was in the midst of a rough stretch. After sitting 12th in points after Texas, Briscoe only managed single Top-10 before New Hampshire. His average finish in those races was 20.1 and Briscoe slid out of the playoffs. Prior to the rain, New Hampshire was looking ugly for Briscoe. However, Briscoe’s dirt experience paid off as he managed to quickly climb the leaderboard on the wet weather tires. With that second place finish, Briscoe sits 25 points out of a playoff spot. Unfortunately, this weekend does not look promising for the 14 team.
Through the first 3 races at Nashville, Briscoe has yet to finish on the lead lap. In fact, Briscoe has finished in the 30s each Cup race at Nashville. For a driver fighting to point his way into the playoffs, his history at Nashville does not lend confidence to their situation. That poor track record needs to be buried for this weekend. Briscoe has shown the capability to run competitively. While his team is in flux due to SHR shutting down, maybe the 14 team can figure a way to keep Briscoe competitive. The newly signed JGR driver might have Tuesday’s announcement to give him momentum heading into this weekend.
AJ Allmendinger
AJ Allmendinger will return to the 16 Cup car this weekend at one of his best ovals on the schedule. Nashville has taken kindly to Allmendinger, both in Cup and Xfinity. His 2 Cup starts both resulted in a Top-20, with last year being a Top-10. Meanwhile, Allmendinger won the Xfinity race at Nashville last year to pair with his Top-5 in 2021.
Although Kaulig Racing has been on a noticeable downturn, Allmendinger has remained a bright spot in his selected Cup runs. Kaulig and Allmendinger have done well picking the right tracks, similar to 2022 when Allmendinger produced quality results. In 4 of his 6 starts, Allmendinger has piloted the 16 car to a Top-15 finish. Meanwhile, the other 4 drivers who have steered the same car have failed to do it once in their 12 starts. While Allmendinger will not be a race winning contender, it would not be a surprise to see him battle for a Top-10. After an abysmal time at Iowa, Allmendinger will be looking for a rebound at Nashville. If you are looking for a driver to watch away from the lead, seeing if Allmendinger can drag that 16 car to another Top-10 will be worthwhile.
Bubba Wallace
The first driver out of the playoffs currently is Bubba Wallace. For the second straight season, Wallace finds himself in the cutline battle. Will that experience help him secure a playoff spot this season? Maybe, but the inconsistency bug has hit the 23XI Racing team once again. After getting off to a hot start, Wallace has cooled considerable since sitting 9th in points after Texas. Since Texas, Wallace has only collected a single Top-10. Some bad luck has hit the 23 team, but the main issue is still track specific speed. When it a good track for Wallace, the speed is there. If not, then Wallace runs in the back half of the Top-20.
In the 3 Nashville races, Wallace has averaged a 15.7 finish. Without scoring a high number of stage points, that will likely not be enough to overtake or close the gap to the cutline. Joey Logano has 2 Top-10s at Nashville, which bodes well with the resurgence of speed the 22 has been offering. Meanwhile, Wallace and the 23 team seem to be in a backslide. Toyotas have been solid at Nashville, racking up a total of 6 Top-10s in the NextGen era. Wallace needs to bring that speed this weekend since the Chicago Street Course is next weekend. With the cutline battle in focus, Bubba Wallace will be one to watch.
William Byron
As discussed in this week’s FitStop Performance Power Rankings, William Byron is having a season of peaks and valleys. Since picking up his third win at Martinsville, Byron has the same amount of Top-10s (5) as finishes outside the Top-10. More than simply having poor results, the speed inconsistencies are what is most concerning. For example, Byron was fast at Iowa. Outside of Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson, Byron’s 24 was the fastest car on track. The 24 team followed it up by barely being competitive for a Top-20 at New Hampshire. Under both dry and damp conditions, Byron did not have speed.
This cycle has been ongoing since Talladega. Dover and Kansas were subpar performances, which were then followed by great runs at Darlington and Charlotte. Sonoma and Gateway were issues that led to Iowa’s impressive run. After New Hampshire, Byron is expected to have a strong weekend at Nashville. He has 2 Top-5s at the track, which has been a Hendrick haven. Based on how the season has gone, Nashville will be another peak post a lull at New Hampshire. It would be a safe bet to consider Byron a potential winner this weekend. While Byron is one to watch this weekend, he is one to keep an eye on throughout the summer. Last summer saw a similar slump, which did not recover until Watkins Glen. Will the 24 team return to the form from earlier this season when Byron looked to be the championship favorite?
Ryan Blaney
Despite the results, there have been few drivers who have been better in recent weeks than Ryan Blaney. Starting with Gateway, Blaney has been upfront each week. You can make the argument that Blaney could have 3 wins on the season had it not been for misfortune. He was on his way to winning at Gateway when he ran out of gas coming to the white flag. Last week, Blaney looked to be competitive over a long run with Christopher Bell. Had it not been for Michael McDowell pulling a dive bomb, Blaney might have been able to run Bell down.
With this recent history, Blaney should be excited yet trepidatious about heading to Nashville. In 2022, Blaney finished on the podium behind Chase Elliott and Kurt Busch. However, 2021 and 2023 both were DNFs for Blaney. Which will be on tap for Blaney this weekend? Team Penske as a whole (minus Austin Cindric) has been performing well, which should mean speed for the 12 car. However, Blaney’s black cloud is always looming. If it can stay away this weekend, Blaney has a great shout at being the top Ford in the field. Blaney fans should remain even-keeled until the checkered flag flies though, especially if Blaney is out front. There is a high ceiling and low floor for Blaney this weekend, which makes him a great choice to watch in the Ally 400.
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