From the mid-west to the west coast, the NASCAR Cup Series will go road racing in wine country. Out in California, the Cup drivers will look to tackle Sonoma Raceway in the Toyota/Save Mart 350. Hopefully, Sonoma will produce a better product than COTA offered earlier this season. After last week had a surprise winner, Sonoma could do the same. Numerous drivers who are lower in points excel at road racing, which could lead to a further crunch of the playoff cutline. With that in mind, who will be the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the Toyota/Save Mart 350?
While 11 races is still plenty of time to better position oneself in points, the looming deadline of the regular season is starting to creep. Austin Cindric’s win last week upset the balance of the playoffs, as he is now the second driver outside the Top-16 to have a secured spot. Right now, the cutline sits with Chris Buescher. The RFK driver only has a 10 point advantage over Chase Briscoe. Notable names such as Kyle Busch and Joey Logano sit on the wrong side of the cutline.
Sonoma might be the first race where the decision between maximizing points versus going for the win will be prevalent. For the drivers around the cutline, it will come down to how much of a chance they think they have at the win. If you can collect 15-20 points between the two stages, is that worth not being competitive for the win? It will be something to watch this weekend.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Austin Cindric
Speaking of the former race winner, Austin Cindric pulled off an Aric Almriola circa 2021 style win at WWT Raceway. While certain circumstances pushed Cindric to the win, it is difficult to call it a fluke. Even without Ryan Blaney running out of fuel, Cindric narrowed the gap significantly coming to the white flag. Plus, Cindric was a Top-3 car all race long, which was strange to see. Now, Cindric is heading to an area of strength of him. Cindric is known for his ability to run well on road courses. So far, Sonoma has not been an exception.
In his first Cup race at the California road course, Cindric picked up a Top-5. Last year, a poor qualifying effort and unlucky caution caught Cindric in the back. With the momentum from his second career Cup Series win, there is little reason to believe that Cindric will not be a factor. The big question will be how well Cindric qualifies. In both of his Sonoma starts, he has qualified deep in the field. With how difficult it is to pass in the NextGen car, that is starting the race with an uphill battle. If Cindric can right that on Saturday, then the 2 car might revisit victory lane.
Cam Waters
The Supercars invasion continues this week as two drivers from the Australian series will debut in Sonoma. One will be Will Brown, driving the 33 entry for Richard Childress Racing. The other will be Cam Waters, who will be making his Cup debut. However, this will not serve as Waters’ NASCAR debut. Waters has made 2 Truck Series starts this year, resulting in a 30th finish at Martinsville and 19th at Kansas. Overall, his runs on the ovals have been quietly respectful. However, he is now heading to a track and running in a vehicle that is more suited for his experience.
Cam Waters is a 7-time winner in Supercars while racking up a total of 33 podiums. Stepping into the NextGen car might be an easier transition for the Aussie than going Truck Series racing. From all accounts, the NextGen mirrors the Supercars vehicles closer than any other NASCAR sanctioned vehicle. Waters has already stated he feels more comfortable with the NextGen (and Sonoma) than he did for his two Truck Series starts. Does that mean he will win this weekend? Doubtful, however Shane van Gisbergen’s Chicago win has skewed expectations for the Supercars drivers. Still, a win might be pushing expectations too far. However, a Top-10 finish could be in play.
Ross Chastain
It has been a bit of a down season for Ross Chastain, at least compared to what he has done over the past two seasons. While sitting fairly comfortably in the points, Chastain (and Trackhosue) has lacked the front running speed fans have grown accustomed to seeing. Through 15 races, Chastain only has 1 Top-5 and 1 stage win. At this point last season, Chastain was near the top of the standings with 5 Top-5s. Something has been amiss with the 1 team. Perhaps Sonoma can help bring the team around.
Sonoma has been a good track for Ross Chastain, as he enters this weekend’s race with 3 straight Top-10s at the road course. The technical road courses seems to be where Chastain thrives as well. Out of his 10 road course Top-10s, 8 have come at Sonoma, COTA, and Road America. COTA has clearly been his strongest road course, but Sonoma is not far behind. Where Chastain is lacking in his Sonoma history is time in the lead. In his 4 Sonoma starts, Chastain has led only a single lap. Could that change this weekend? With the playoff cutline rising after Cindric’s win, maybe there is additional pressure for Chastain to secure his playoff spot with a win.
Ty Gibbs
At some point you would assume that Ty Gibbs will find his way to victory lane. If his first Xfinity Series win is anything to go off of, Gibbs picking up a win on a road course makes sense. Gibbs enters this weekend as the second highest driver in points without a win. Barring complete madness occurring over the next 11 races, Gibbs should feel secured with penciling his name into the playoffs. His current lead on the cutline is 107 points. What Gibbs is lacking are playoffs points, as he only has collected 2 from his stage wins at Bristol.
With a win, Ty Gibbs looks to have a better shout at advancing far into the playoffs. Playoff points truly matter, especially as a driver advances through the rounds. That should mean that the 54 team will go all out to give their young driver a chance at Sonoma. Last year, Gibbs fell victim to the poorly timed caution. He ran better than the 18th place result in the ledger. Based on his 50% hit rate on Top-10s on road courses, it is logical to see Gibbs as a favorite this weekend. Arguably, you could make a case that Gibbs should be favored over his teammate (and reigning race winner) Martin Truex Jr. Look for the 54 car to qualify well and run upfront. If strategy falls the right way, Gibbs could be looking at his first career Cup win this weekend.
Christopher Bell
Christopher Bell flips from good to bad luck consistently throughout the season. Charlotte demonstrated the positives, as the weather showed up at the right time. Brad Keselowski was breathing down his neck, so another 5-10 laps could have seen the win yanked away from him. Last weekend at Gateway, Bell suffered the negative side of luck. Clearly, Bell had the best car in the field. He could weave through traffic seemingly no matter what. Yet, a sour engine and the loss of third gear prevented Bell from going back-to-back. What luck will be in store for Bell at Sonoma?
Earlier this season, Christopher Bell looked to have the best car at COTA. He was tracking down William Byron as the laps dwindled down. However, he ran out of time before he could catch Byron to even attempt a pass. Bell is a solid road racer, evident by his 2 wins and 50% Top-10 record. However, Sonoma has been the outlier. He did Top-10 in this race last year, but it was his first at the track. His first two starts in California saw finishes in the 20s. Maybe Sonoma is a road course that does not agree with Bell. On the other hand, Bell could have another dominant car this weekend and put any Sonoma doubts to rest.
Critical Path Security is a cyber security firm protecting clients in the United States and the world beyond. Founded in 2017, they are as dedicated as ever to providing coverage for their clients in numerous industries. Please give them a follow (X, Facebook, LinkedIn) and thank them for their weekly sponsorship of the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch.
