Time for the trip to the northeast for NASCAR. The Cup Series will head to New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the USA Today 301. Known as the Magic Mile, New Hampshire will also serve as another semi-preview for Phoenix in November. The style of racing at New Hampshire resembles Phoenix enough to get some insights into the championship race. Speaking of the championship, the playoff picture is slowly starting to become the focal point of the Cup Series. There are 9 races left until the playoffs start. The cutline currently sits with Bubba Wallace, as he holds a 6 points lead over Joey Logano. With playoffs implications looming, who will be the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the USA Today 301?
For the drivers near the cutline, the worrisome thing about New Hampshire is the tendency for a surprise driver to find their way upfront. Usually, that driver was Aric Almirola in the 10 Stewart-Haas Racing entry. Could that spell good things for Noah Gragson? As seen by Austin Cindric’s win at Gateway, a driver and team can figure out a setup well enough to win. If a driver below the cutline wins, it will add further pressure to drivers who are theoretically safe on points. While an existing winner or driver currently in the playoffs is the likely winner, New Hampshire could shake up the playoffs as Gateway did. Are any of those potential playoff disruptors listed below?
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Martin Truex Jr
After announcing his retirement from fulltime competition last week, Martin Truex Jr will look for New Hampshire to be a rebound from a recent stretch of struggles. Truex is currently riding a 5 race streak without a Top-10. In fact, the past 5 races have also seen Truex struggle to finish inside the Top-20. To be fair, Sonoma should have been a Top-5 had he not run out of gas coming to the finish. However, that does play into the struggles the 19 team is experience. Last week at Iowa, the team simply missed the mark. Albeit, all of the Toyotas sans Christopher Bell seemed to be slow.
There is not much better of a track for Martin Truex Jr to look for a quality run than New Hampshire. Since 2014, Truex’s worst finish at the Magic Mile is 16th. Additionally, Truex has a Top-5 in 6 of the past 8 races at the track. This includes last year’s dominant win where Truex led 254 of the 301 laps. Despite the recent struggles, Truex should be a favorite heading into this weekend. As long as the 19 team can avoid bad luck or decisions, it would be an expectation to see Truex fighting for the race win. A win would avoid the remaining season narrative of whether Truex can collect a win in his final fulltime season.
Justin Haley
One of the most impressive drivers in the Cup Series this season is Justin Haley. Prior to Haley joining Rick Ware Racing, the organization had failed to collect a Top-10 on a non-superspeedway in their history. Through 17 races this year, Haley has 2 with a third barely slipping by at Iowa last weekend. Despite not finishing in the Top-10, Iowa might have been Haley’s best race this season. He consistently ran inside the Top-10, including picking up a stage point in Stage 2. Heading to New Hampshire, there is a great chance that Haley can put together another impressive run.
Where Justin Haley has been the best is where the driver talent shines. Bristol, Darlington, Gateway, and Iowa are all driver focused tracks. While speed is always important, driver performance can help narrow the gap between the top and bottom teams at these types of tracks. New Hampshire is no different. With Kaulig Racing, Haley earned Top-20s in both of his starts at New Hampshire. There is no reason to believe that Haley cannot continue that streak with Rick Ware Racing. If he can run Top-10 at Iowa, then there is a great chance he can do the same this weekend. Continuing his impressive streak might help propel the recent rumors of a team swap in silly season.
Chase Elliott
For the first time since winning the regular season championship in 2022, Chase Elliott finds himself at the top of the points standings. Also, he is atop of the FitStop Performance Week 17Â Power Rankings here on the website. Elliott has been the most consistent driver in the field this season. His average finish sits within the Top-10 and the 9 car has yet to finish outside the Top-20. For those who doubted Elliott earlier this season, he is proving that he is still a top tiered driver.
With that said, Elliott has been absent from race-winning contention. Despite holding an average finish that is 3.4 spots better than second, Elliott only has led the 11th most laps this season. In fact, Elliott has only racked up double-digit laps led in 3 races. Elliott is still a far cry away from a dominate driver on the circuit. The 9 car is rarely seen as a race-winning threat week to week, despite the numerous Top-5 finishes. Will New Hampshire break that trend?
Doubtful, based on Elliott’s history at the track. In 10 starts, Elliott has only collected 2 Top-5s and 3 Top-5s. More importantly, Elliott has only led 99 laps at the Magic Mile. Elliott will likely be another Top-5 contender, but this weekend might not be one where the 9 car goes to victory lane.
Michael McDowell
Outside of a couple of poor finishes, Michael McDowell and the 34 team have been on a solid run of races. Even with the two poor results (Iowa and Gateway), the 34 car had speed that were undone by on-track incidents. After going through a miserable stretch from COTA through Dover, McDowell has rebounded over the past 6 races with 3 Top-10s. Unfortunately, that horrid stretch earlier in the season likely means McDowell will have to win his way into the playoffs. While the one remaining road course and superspeedway may be his best bet, McDowell should not be overlooked this weekend.
As mentioned earlier, New Hampshire races similarly to Iowa and Gateway. Both tracks saw McDowell bring noticeable speed. Gateway is the closer comparison, which bodes well for McDowell. After qualifying on pole, McDowell managed to lead a bulk of the laps in Stage 1. Had it not been for Christopher Bell’s rocket ship of a car, McDowell likely would have won Stage 1. With New Hampshire featuring random outbreaks from unexpecting drivers, Michael McDowell looks primed to replace Aric Almirola as the surprise Cup driver this week. In terms of a longshot, McDowell might be a smart bet to keep an eye on this weekend.
Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch has been on a terrible run of rotten luck. Over the past 3 races, Busch easily had a car with Top-10 worthy speed. However, something has happened each race to prevent a Top-10 from coming to fruition. At Gateway, a battle with Kyle Larson saw Busch wreck out. In the closing laps of Sonoma, Ross Chastain ran into Busch, spoiling a Top-5 effort. Last week, Busch went from a potential Top-10 to a DNF due to a mechanical issue. All of this sees Busch sitting 31 points out of a playoff spot. The question is not whether Busch and the 8 team have speed. More so, it is the wonder if the black cloud will follow them to New Hampshire.
Last year, Kyle Busch’s first half resembled the Rowdy of old. He won 3 times in the first 17 races and looked to be a Championship Four threat. Then New Hampshire happened. This is the race where Busch’s 2023 season went up in flames. Similar to recent week, Busch’s Top-10 speed was undone by a wreck. Returning to the track that started this downward spiral, maybe Busch can exercise his demons and reset his season. He is a former 3-time winner at New Hampshire, although his last win came in 2017. Still, Busch is too good of a driver for this struggle streak to continue much longer.
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