Silly season has gotten off to an explosive start this year. As the calendar only hits early June, two drivers have signed multi-year extensions, Michael McDowell is leaving his longtime home, and the 4-car operation of Stewart-Haas Racing is shutting down. Also, Front Row Motorsports has purchased a charter, assumedly from the Stewart-Haas shutdown. Outside of the SHR closure, all of these moves were not pressing situations to watch heading into 2024. There were a handful of drivers sitting on hot seats as their middling performances mixed with questionable statuses for 2025. Among these drivers were Austin Cindric and Daniel Suarez. While Suarez had more heat heading into this season, both drivers had been underperforming in top rides in the NextGen era. Now, both drivers have a win in 2024. Does that secure their ride for next year?
It is an intriguing question to ponder. Winning in NASCAR’s highest level is an accomplishment that cannot be dismissed. Only 204 drivers can claim that they have at least one win in the Cup Series history (since 1949). While winning has always been seen as a great accomplishment, the current day of NASCAR sees the win carry more significance. Rather than simply a testament of being the first to the finish, a win now grants access to the playoffs and advancement while in them. A trip to the playoffs is the only chance a driver has of winning the championship now. As seen by Martin Truex Jr in 2022, not winning a race can spoil an otherwise great season. With an increased importance to a “regular season” win especially, does that grant a driver security to their current ride? Are Austin Cindric and Daniel Suarez safe from silly season turnover?
Recent History of Winners & Silly Season
Starting with the 2014 season, NASCAR adopted the “win-and-in” format for their playoffs. Any fulltime Cup Series driver who won a race in the first 26 races of the season (and sat in the Top-30 of points) earned a spot into the playoffs. Understandably, this put more importance on winning during the first 26 races for each team. When considering the question of whether Daniel Suarez’s and Austin Cindric’s wins secure their seats for next year, the recent history might shine some light.
From 2014 to 2023, each Cup Series season saw an average of 14 unique winners per season. 38 drivers make up the list of the 140 total different winners for those 10 seasons. During that 10-year stretch, 14 drivers did not return their winning ride for the following season. Of those 14 silly seasons moves, 5 were retirements and 6 were the drivers deciding to leave for a different team. That leaves 3 drivers who won a race then “lost” their fulltime Cup Series ride. Those 3 are Kasey Kahne (2017), Kurt Busch (2018), and AJ Allmendinger (2023).
Kasey Kahne
Heading into the 2017 season, Kasey Kahne had been struggling to match the high expectations for Hendrick Motorsports. He had gone two straight seasons without a win and missed the playoffs, so he was on the hot seat going into that season. Despite starting the season well in the first 3 races, things fell a part as the year went on. Before the Brickyard 400, Kahne sat 22nd in points with only 3 Top-10s.
While Kahne did go on to win the dreadful 2017 Brickyard 400, it was not enough to keep his job with Hendrick Motorsports. Kahne won the Brickyard 400 on July 23rd. Hendrick Motorsports announced William Byron was replacing Kahne on August 7. At the point of the win, the decision was already made that Kahne would be leaving Hendrick Motorsports. It was too little, too late.
Kurt Busch
Unlike Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch had been running well for Stewart-Haas Racing prior to the 2018 season. While not performing at an exceptional level, Busch had been consistently solid since signing with the team in 2014. Each season saw Busch win at least one race and make the playoffs. Outside of 2014, Busch had at least 15 Top-10s per season. With sponsorship from Haas Automation and Monster Energy, there was little question about funding for Busch.
However, there was uncertainty whether Busch would resign with SHR to drive 2018. The two sides did eventually agree to a one-year deal. After winning the 2017 Daytona 500, Busch went on a lengthy winless streak that was not snapped until the Bristol night race. With that win, it propelled Busch into the Round of 8 of the playoffs. However, the win and the deep playoff run was not enough for the two sides to agree to another season together. Busch went to Chip Ganassi Racing while SHR brought in Daniel Suarez for the 2019 season.
Now, it can be argued whether Kurt Busch lost his ride or chose to leave Stewart-Haas Racing. On one hand, Busch was the one to announce his departure. Plus, he found a new ride quicker than SHR brought in Suarez. However, Busch and SHR struggled to re-up Bsuch for the 2018 to begin with. It might be more mutual than Busch “losing” his seat.
AJ Allmendinger
Another driver whose win came after the start of the playoffs. Kaulig Racing was notable struggling in the Cup Series. By the time October hit, Justin Haley had already announced his departure to Rick Ware Racing. The inability to retain Haley was due to financial strain on the Cup Series operation since Haley brought little funding himself. Hence why Daniel Hemric was brought in to replace Haley, a driver with outside funding. The question remained about AJ Allmendinger and the 16 car. Heading into the ROVAL, all signs pointed to Allmendinger returning to the Xfinity Series with the 16 car returning to being a multi-man operation.
Then AJ Allmendinger won the ROVAL, which sparked some hope that the win would boost his odds of keeping his seat. 2023 was a disappointing season for Allmendinger, but few put the blame on the road course ace. With the big win, the thought was that it might spark enough funding to keep Allmendinger in the seas. Unfortunately, the win could not save Allmendinger’s fulltime status.
When looking at the past 10 seasons, usually a driver who wins is either safe in their current ride or it can open up the door to new opportunities. As you can see though, that is not always the case. Especially when there are indications that a change might be on the horizon, winning sometimes cannot salvage that situation. That is why the Austin Cindric and Daniel Suarez situations are intriguing.
Austin Cindric
Prior to his win at WWT Raceway, there were starting to be some rumblings that Austin Cindric was not too safe with his current ride. Yes, Cindric’s father is the president of Team Penske. Many assume that keeps Cindric safe from any silly season maneuvering. Yet, the closure of Stewart-Haas Racing throws a bit of curveball into the situation. Also remember, Cole Custer’s familial ties did not keep him in his Cup seat.
Some rumors started to seep out that Noah Gragson or Chase Briscoe could be an option for the 2 car. While both could be in the running for the Wood Brothers as well, a move to Team Penske proper seemed to be on the table. That would move Cindric out of the iconic 2 car to the 21. While still essentially with Penske, the move would be significant in how Team Penske sees Austin Cindric.
Despite a solid rookie effort, Austin Cindric performed subpar in his sophomore season along with the first 14 races this year. While the Team Penske camp looked noticeably slower (especially this season), Cindric was definitely lagging behind his teammates. Before his win at WWT Raceway, Cindric only had a single Top-10 this season (Atlanta). Since the start of 2023, Cindric only has 7 Top-10s and 20 Top-20s (out of 51 starts).
Impact of Gateway Win
To say that Austin Cindric’s win at WWT Raceway was surprising is an understatement. Before the cars hit the track for practice, Cindric’s betting odds for the weekend sat at 250-1. Whoever bet on Cindric to win at those odds, good for you. Other than a fourth at Atlanta, Cindric’s best finish heading into Gateway was 15th at Dover. Combine Cindric’s performance with the questions surrounding Penske, that led to little expectation from the 2 team.
After practice and qualifying, everyone took notice of the speed from all three Team Penske cars. Cindric matched his teammates in practice then outqualified them. Cindric’s odds improved from 250-1 to 28-1 post-practice. During the race, Cindric arguably was the third best car. Sure, some luck played into his eventual win with issues for Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney. However, Cindric won on merits. It was eerily similar to Aric Almirola’s random win at New Hampshire in 2021.
Here is the question though: if Ryan Blaney does not run out of fuel, does this race still boost Cindric’s safety? Obviously, there are still 21 races left to play out to help answer that question. Without the win though, then this race would likely be seen a blip on the radar of organizational speed rather than a huge boost to Cindric.
Playoff Implications
Where the win might help Austin Cindric the most is with his playoff run. Drivers who make the playoffs receive a bit more attention from their organizations and manufacturers than drivers who do not. Now, chaos can still occur where Cindric’s win does not lock him into the playoffs. Still, the assumption is that Cindric will be one of the sixteen fighting for the championship. His final 10 races now have a much improved outlook than they did prior to Gateway.
Since the Olympics scrambled the NASCAR schedule around, the playoffs look different this season. With that new look, it bodes well to Cindric’s strengths. A road course and superspeedway race in the first two rounds could see Cindric advance through to the Round of 8. Remember, Cindric did advance to the Round of 12 in 2022 after his Daytona 500 win. He only missed the Round of 8 by 13 points. It is not farfetched to think that Cindric can point or win his way into the Round of 8 this year. Now that would have more silly season implications than the WWT Raceway win.
Austin Cindric’s 2025 Status
Would it be likely for Team Penske to wait until October to determine who will be in the 2 car next year? No; even if not announced, the team internally would know who would be in the 2 car for 2025 before getting too deep in the playoffs. Does that mean Austin Cindric is now stamped in as the driver of the 2 for next season? Also no.
While winning can cure some issues, the win at Gateway needs to be proven as a new trend rather than a one-off. 2024 has been a bad season for Austin Cindric. Bad enough where those earlier mentioned rumors have been floated around. Through 15 races, a Team Penske car should have more than 2 Top-10s. Cindric is on pace to have his worst season yet.
When looking at his numbers, a concerning thing should jump out. Cindric’s average start is 11.9 compared to his average finish of 21.8. On average, Cindric is losing 9.9 positions per race. During his first 2 seasons, that average positions lost sat at 3.5. In 2024, that has blossomed into essentially 10 positions.
Where there is smoke usually means fire. Cindric is surely feeling the pressure to perform. There is little question whether Cindric remains under the Team Penske umbrella. However, will that be with the 2 or the Wood Brothers 21? At this point, it seems more likely that Cindric remains in the 2. However, that would be chalked up to factors outside of his Gateway win.
Daniel Suarez
Although Austin Cindric might have rumors surrounding his hot seat status, there is no question that Daniel Suarez entered 2024 with a fire under his. Teammate Ross Chastain took over being the top name of the organization as Suarez lagged behind. Suarez is still a key figure of the organization, but there is little argument that Chastain is driver one. Much of that is due to the on-track success of the Melon Man while Suarez struggles to find consistency. Suarez picked up his first win at Sonoma, but there has been little else to celebrate since Trackhouse expanded. Through 15 starts this year, Suarez has racked up 2 wins, 11 Top-5s, and 25 Top-10s since 2022. Compared to Chastain, he is down by 2 wins, 15 Top-5s, and 15 Top-10s to his teammate.
Under normal circumstances, maybe Suarez would not be facing too much pressure. He brings in funding, clearly meshes well with the organization, and is competitive enough to justify his presence. However, Trackhouse Racing has decided to bulk out their roster with limited space. Under contract for this season is Chastain, Suarez, Zane Smith, and Shane van Gisbergen. Also, Connor Zilisch is under a developmental deal. All of the mentioned drivers are also signed for 2025, except one: Daniel Suarez. As recently as this week, Suarez maintains confidence that he will sign an extension. However, that has yet to happen.
Impact of Atlanta Win
Unlike Austin Cindric, Daniel Suarez collected his win to start the season essentially. In one of the closest finishes in NASCAR history, Suarez barely nipped Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch at the line. In theory, that early win could have propelled Suarez to a solid season. At first, it did. Suarez ran well at Las Vegas the week after, barely missing out on a Top-10. At Phoenix, Suarez collected a Top-15. Although it was another worse finish, Suarez was able to survive the Bristol tire fiasco for a Top-20. Through the first 5 races of the season, Suarez sat 11th in points and averaged a 15.4 finish.
With the win and playoff spot, a continuation of that early success would surely cool off that seat tremendously. However, things have not gone well in recent weeks. Since Bristol, Suarez has only managed a single Top-10 (Texas) and 2 Top-20s. From the 15.4 average finish through 5 races, that has ballooned to 22.2 over the past 10. Through 15 races total, Suarez has an average finish of 19.9, 2 Top-10s, and sits 19th in points. An early season win can be a boost, but it can also be forgotten as a season drags on. If Suarez continues his current pace, that win will mean little if he is bounced early in the playoffs.
Charter Questions and Roster Crunch
With the sale of Stewart-Haas Racing, a likely destination for one of those charters is Trackhouse Racing. It essentially feels certain that Trackhouse will buy one, as they have 4 Cup-level drivers on their roster. Even if they release Zane Smith (which is rumored), a third chartered entry is necessary to maintain their current roster. The preferred situation would be to retain all 4 Cup-ready drivers though.
However, the rumors of the new charter agreement limiting teams to 3 charters could impact Trackhouse. Surely, the eventual plan was to have a 4-car team with a combination of Chastain, Suarez, SVG, Smith, and Zilisch. The feeling is that this charter limit will come to fruition. Trackhouse would be the main team to be hurt by this, since Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing will be grandfathered in. If the reports are true, that roster crunch is expected to become a reality.
Ross Chastain, Shane van Gisbergen, and Connor Zilisch are not going anywhere soon. Barring unforeseen circumstances, those 3 will remain with Trackhouse. The question might be down to Daniel Suarez or Zane Smith. Smith is in the midst of a terrible rookie season in Spire’s 71 entry. He sits last in the points among fulltime drivers, only 9 points ahead of Kaz Grala (who has missed 3 races). According to Bob Pockrass, Smith looks to be the odd man out.
Despite the Smith rumors and Suarez extension confidence, does it feel certain that Suarez returns? Expected maybe, but it feels far from a guarantee. While there are off-track reasons to keep Suarez with Trackhouse, the on-track results are lagging. There is not much more of ceiling to Suarez’s performance than what he is giving now. Plus, this constant talk of an extension (dating back to Atlanta) is starting to feel similar to Kyle Busch and Joe Gibbs Racing in 2022.
Daniel Suarez’s 2025 Status
All indications point to a reunion between Daniel Suarez and Trackhouse Racing. Although Chastain has replaced Suarez as top driver, Suarez is still a key figure in Trackhouse. If Trackhouse were to part ways with Suarez, how would sponsors react? What about Pitbull and his ownership status? As mentioned earlier, there are off-track reasons to keep Suarez in the fold. Yet, something about this lends to the belief that the two could split.
According to Daniel Suarez and Justin Marks, an extension is expected. However, there has been little news to support that claim outside of their words. It could be that Trackhouse is focusing on acquiring a third charter and navigating the charter deal with NASCAR. Both of those topics are more pressing and impactful than Suarez resigning. Which means those two topics could alter Suarez’s status with the organization.
Daniel Suarez’s Atlanta win seemingly will mean little to his 2025 employment. The remainder of his season has been mediocre to poor. It has been bad enough that Suarez felt the need to apologize to his supporters. Whether Suarez stays or goes comes down to charters and Trackhouse’s roster. If the charter situation forces Trackhouse to cut a driver, it will come down to a simple question: is Zane Smith’s potential greater and more valuable than what is known about Suarez’s performance and funding?
How Much Does a Win Matter?
Ultimately, a driver who enters the season on the hot seat cannot cool it off via a single win. When looking at the past 10 years of the Cup Series, it is difficult to name any driver who maintained a seat they were going to lose via a single win. Those decisions cannot be undone with a single race. Especially if that win comes late in the season, the decision to cut or retain is likely already made. If the decision is not made at the time of the win, other factors will count more than the win.
Sponsorships, past performance, other drivers, charters, and more will factor more heavily than a single win. Now, if Austin Cindric or Daniel Suarez went on to rattle off multiple wins, that would be a different story. However, their current level of performance indicates that those 2 wins will be the only wins either will get all season. Whether they keep their current seats for next year will come down to the other factors.
For Austin Cindric, are the Stewart-Haas drivers considered more favorably to push Cindric to the 21? For Daniel Suarez, will the charter situation force Trackhouse to choose between Suarez and Zane Smith?
