From a bit of slog to watch, the ending of the Enjoy Illinois 300 turned into a dramatic affair. The final stage seemed to be set up around a question of strategy. Could Christopher Bell, who decided pit during the Stage 2 break, surpass the Team Penske trio who stayed out? As the laps winded down, the answer seemed to be yes. Bell managed to catch Ryan Blaney, but struggled to get around him. Then Bell’s engine went sour, but not enough to put him behind the wall. Martin Truex Jr proved to be a great teammate to allow Bell to finish in the Top-10. Blaney looked set to win as he approached the white flag, then Austin Cindric cruised by him as the 12 ran out of gas. There are plenty of implications from the ending of that race, along with the action in Portland. Time to look for those headlines in this week’s Overreaction Monday for WWT Raceway and Portland.
Team Penske 3-Peat
Other than the spring Phoenix race, WWT Raceway is start of a sample of tracks that can allude to how the Championship Race is going to play out. A similar racing style allows Gateway (and New Hampshire soon) to serve as a quasi-preview for the November showdown. Based on Sunday, Team Penske might be in a great spot to hoist a third straight championship.
Barring an insane run of new winners, Team Penske should have at least two drivers in the playoffs. Austin Cindric effectively locked himself in and Ryan Blaney sits 47 points (factoring in Larson as a playoff driver) above the cutline. It would not be surprising to see Joey Logano squeeze his way in before the start of the playoffs as well. What Team Penske has shown the past two seasons is the ability for one of their drivers to get hot at the right time. Once they get to Phoenix in the Championship Four, it has been a bit of no contest.
Last year might have been more interesting if Christopher Bell did not have his brakes fail him. However, the threat of Ryan Blaney at Phoenix was discussed throughout the playoffs, especially after his Talladega win. That will not be any different this year. All three Penske cars were fast on Sunday. Only Bell served as true competition, which he was better than the three Fords. With Blaney having another solid run at Phoenix in the spring, it could shape up for another championship for the Penske camp.
Do Not Sleep on Cindric
Initial reactions to Austin Cindric winning might have some disappointment for the playoffs. Along with Daniel Suarez, it may seem like a wasted playoff spot for an underperforming driver. However, it would be unwise to write off Cindric without a second thought. This year’s playoffs are different than usual. This will open the door for Cindric (and even Suarez) to advance further than many people will think. The first two rounds sees a road course and superspeedway in each of them. Where has Austin Cindric thrived the most in his Cup Series career? Road courses and superspeedways.
Would it be too bold to think Austin Cindric is a good shout to make it to the Round of 8? One could argue that it could be an expectation. 12 of Cindric’s 17 Top-10s have come on road courses and superspeedways. Winning is not out of the question for Cindric, especially at the superspeedways.
What could throw some cold water on this is Cindric’s performances at the two road courses in the playoffs. The superspeedways have been kind to Cindric, especially Atlanta where the 2 driver elevates his performance to a superstar. However, Watkins Glen and the ROVAL have failed to net Cindric a Top-10 in his 4 starts. Between the two tracks, Cindric average finish is 18.75. Still, there should be a bit more optimism to Cindric’s playoff chances than the initial reaction might hold.
Brad Keselowski is a Championship Favorite
There is no driver with more momentum in the Cup Series than Brad Keselowski. Over the past 7 races, Keselowski has racked up 5 Top-5s with all of those being Top-3s. Outside of an issue at Dover, Keselowski has been a Top-5 driver in each of the recent races. Picking up his first win since 2021 already locked him into the playoffs. With his recent form, there is little reason to think that Brad Keselowski is not a genuine threat to hoist his second championship trophy. Well, other than the road courses in the first two rounds.
Last year, Chris Buescher was the RFK Racing driver who dominated the headlines. While Keselowski ran well, he lacked the wins that Buescher racked up. Now, it seems that Keselowski will be the one to start rattling off wins. If the Coca-Cola 600 runs 10 more laps, he likely wins that race. Based on their strategy, Keselowski managed to pull out a Top-3 this past weekend. Had the race gone on for a few more laps, it is likely Keselowski finishes second again.
As for championship aspirations, the big question is whether Keselowski can survive the road courses. He is notoriously weak there, except for Watkins Glen where he holds his own. The best path for Keselowski would be to win at either superspeedway or Kansas/Bristol. With the performance Keselowski has been flashing, it is not far fetched to consider it a possibility.
Waiver Situation Gets Worse by the Day
To not dwell on something that is already over-talked about, but the entire situation surrounding the Kyle Larson wavier situation is comical at best. Many assumed that this result would be a foregone conclusion. NASCAR hands out waivers as if they are Halloween candy. They choose to suspend drivers then wipe away the punishment via a wavier. Why would Kyle Larson not get a waiver? He did something that brought more attention to the sport than had he not attempted the double.
Now, a principled approach from NASCAR would make sense if you ignore all of the context and history surrounding waivers. Larson chose to miss a race despite the potential (albeit seemingly minor) risk of suffering consequences. NASCAR did suffer via this decision as well, as their star driver completely missed the Coca-Cola 600 and the race drew a lower rating likely due to it. Plus, Larson did not need to run this year’s Indy 500 to fulfill his dream of running the double. His contract has an option for next year’s Indy 500. Once again, NASCAR following their own rule would be a principled approach. However, they cannot do that due to their own inconsistencies.
No matter which side of the fence you sit on with this situation, everyone can agree it is ridiculous that it is taking this long to come out with an official decision. From reports, the delay is due to mulling over the decision. NASCAR is not simply dragging their feet for the publicity. Either way they decide to rule, NASCAR needs to put this to bed by the time the teams head out to Sonoma.
Time to Learn Rugby
Shane van Gisbergen has now won 40% of the road course races he has entered in his NASCAR career. The New Zealander picked up his first Xfinity Series win in Portland, along with securing Kaulig’s first Xfinity Series win of the season. With that win, he also locked himself into the Xfinity Series playoffs. However, the most important thing to come from Portland was discovering Gisbergen’s victory celebration.
Trackhouse drivers are notorious for their race win celebrations. Ross Chastain smashes a watermelon from the top of his car/truck. Meanwhile, Daniel Suarez punches a hole through a piñata. Shane van Gisbergen did not perform any special celebration after his Chicago win, likely due to the unexpected nature of it. Heading into Portland, Trackhouse put out a video teasing what prop would be utilized in a future Gisbergen win. While many were thinking kiwis, it turned out to be rugby.
Someone from his team brought out a rugby ball. Gisbergen signed it then punted into the crowd where a young fan caught it. In addition to that, Shane van Gisbergen also invited the kid he handed the flag to out on the track for a photo. A man of the people. Now the ball is in Zane Smith’s court.
