This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Gateway race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Gateway (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Martin Truex Jr.
Finished: 12th
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 7th
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (William Byron 3rd & J.J. Yeley 40th)
-10 of the 40 drivers finished 1 spot different (better or worse) of where they were projected
-21 of the 40 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 40 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 10 drivers finished in the Top 10
Notes from all point race projections this year (14 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 23 of 525, 4.38%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 228 of 525, 43.43%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 194 of 525, 36.95%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 14, 14.29%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 69 of 140, 49.29%
Notable results this week
Winner: Ryan Blaney
One to Watch: Austin Cindric
Disappointment: Todd Gilliland
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 24th -23 |
| 2. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 7th -5 |
| 3. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 2nd +1 |
| 4. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 11th -7 |
| 5. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 1st +4 |
| 6. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 4th +2 |
| 7. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 34th -27 |
| 8. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 25th -17 |
| 9. | 22 | Joey Logano | 5th +4 |
| 10. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 35th -25 |
| 11. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 12th -1 |
| 12. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 10th +2 |
| 13. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 28th -15 |
| 14. | 24 | William Byron | 15th -1 |
| 15. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 13th +2 |
| 16. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 21st -5 |
| 17. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 3rd +14 |
| 18. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 8th +10 |
| 19. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 22nd -3 |
| 20. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 14th +6 |
| 21. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 23rd -2 |
| 22. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 17th +5 |
| 23. | 4 | Josh Berry | 36th -13 |
| 24. | 43 | Erik Jones | 26th -2 |
| 25. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20th +5 |
| 26. | 51 | Justin Haley | 9th +17 |
| 27. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 18th +9 |
| 28. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 32nd -4 |
| 29. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 6th +23 |
| 30. | 16 | Derek Kraus | 30th +0 |
| 31. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 27th +4 |
| 32. | 71 | Zane Smith | 19th +13 |
| 33. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 29th +4 |
| 34. | 15 | Cody Ware | 33rd +1 |
| 35. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 16th +19 |
| 36. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 31st +5 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
