This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Iowa race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Iowa (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 1st
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 1st
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Kyle Larson 1st, Daniel Suarez 14th & Alex Bowman 15th)
-12 of the 38 drivers finished withing 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-10 of the 38 drivers finished 15+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-11 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15
Notes from all point race projections this year (16 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 27 of 599, 4.51%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 268 of 599, 44.74%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 218 of 599, 36.39%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 16, 18.75%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 81 of 160, 50.63%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Chase Briscoe
Disappointment: Austin Cindric
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 34th -33 |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 24th -22 |
| 3. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 22nd -19 |
| 4. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 28th -24 |
| 5. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 3rd +2 |
| 6. | 24 | William Byron | 2nd +4 |
| 7. | 22 | Joey Logano | 6th +1 |
| 8. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 10th -2 |
| 9. | 4 | Josh Berry | 7th +2 |
| 10. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 1st +9 |
| 11. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 17th -6 |
| 12. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 8th +4 |
| 13. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 11th +2 |
| 14. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 18th -4 |
| 15. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 4th +11 |
| 16. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 9th +7 |
| 17. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 35th -18 |
| 18. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 15th +3 |
| 19. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 12th +7 |
| 20. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 27th -7 |
| 21. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 16th +5 |
| 22. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 23rd -1 |
| 23. | 51 | Justin Haley | 13th +10 |
| 24. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 25th -1 |
| 25. | 43 | Erik Jones | 32nd -7 |
| 26. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 36th -10 |
| 27. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 26th +1 |
| 28. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 21st +7 |
| 29. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 14th +15 |
| 30. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 20th +10 |
| 31. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 19th +12 |
| 32. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 5th +27 |
| 33. | 71 | Zane Smith | 31st +2 |
| 34. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 33rd +1 |
| 35. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 29th +6 |
| 36. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 30th +6 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
