This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Nashville race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Nashville (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 24th
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 8th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Ross Chastain 10th)
-10 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 36 drivers finished 15+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the 36 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the projected Top 10 drivers finished in the Top 10
Notes from all point race projections this year (18 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 28 of 671, 4.17%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 293 of 671, 43.67%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 250 of 671, 37.26%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 18, 16.67%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 92 of 180, 51.11%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Chase Briscoe
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 12th -11 |
| 2. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 36th -34 |
| 3. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 23rd -20 |
| 4. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 24th -20 |
| 5. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 8th -3 |
| 6. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 18th -12 |
| 7. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 25th -18 |
| 8. | 24 | William Byron | 19th -11 |
| 9. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 3rd +6 |
| 10. | 4 | Josh Berry | 26th -16 |
| 11. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 33rd -22 |
| 12. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 7th +5 |
| 13. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 5th +8 |
| 14. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 27th -13 |
| 15. | 22 | Joey Logano | 1st +14 |
| 16. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 16th +0 |
| 17. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 32nd -15 |
| 18. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 11th +7 |
| 19. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 6th +13 |
| 20. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 14th +6 |
| 21. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 35th -14 |
| 22. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 15th +7 |
| 23. | 50 | Corey Heim | 29th -6 |
| 24. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 22nd +2 |
| 25. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 10th +15 |
| 26. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 4th +22 |
| 27. | 43 | Erik Jones | 34th -7 |
| 28. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 20th +8 |
| 29. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 21st +8 |
| 30. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 30th +0 |
| 31. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 17th +14 |
| 32. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 31st +1 |
| 33. | 15 | Riley Herbst | 37th +4 |
| 34. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 28th +6 |
| 35. | 51 | Justin Haley | 13th +22 |
| 36. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 9th +27 |
| 37. | 71 | Zane Smith | 2nd +35 |
| 38. | 66 | Chad Finchum | 38th +0 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
