This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Nashville race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Nashville (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 24th
Last weeks winner: Christopher Bell
Projected Finish: 8th

Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Ross Chastain 10th)
-10 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-14 of the 36 drivers finished 15+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the 36 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-5 of the projected Top 10 drivers finished in the Top 10

Notes from all point race projections this year (18 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 28 of 671, 4.17%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 293 of 671, 43.67%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 250 of 671, 37.26%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 18, 16.67%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 92 of 180, 51.11%

Notable results this week

Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Chase Briscoe

Last week Denny Hamlin was projected to win and that didn’t work out too well. He’s projected this week to win as well, so maybe no rain will help him finish there this time. Photo by James Gilbert — Getty Images

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 11 Denny Hamlin 12th -11
2. 20 Christopher Bell 36th -34
3. 54 Ty Gibbs 23rd -20
4. 19 Martin Truex Jr. 24th -20
5. 5 Kyle Larson 8th -3
6. 9 Chase Elliott 18th -12
7. 6 Brad Keselowski 25th -18
8. 24 William Byron 19th -11
9. 45 Tyler Reddick 3rd +6
10. 4 Josh Berry 26th -16
11. 1 Ross Chastain 33rd -22
12. 23 Bubba Wallace 7th +5
13. 17 Chris Buescher 5th +8
14. 8 Kyle Busch 27th -13
15. 22 Joey Logano 1st +14
16. 77 Carson Hocevar 16th +0
17. 3 Austin Dillon 32nd -15
18. 16 A.J. Allmendinger 11th +7
19. 12 Ryan Blaney 6th +13
20. 48 Alex Bowman 14th +6
21. 34 Michael McDowell 35th -14
22. 2 Austin Cindric 15th +7
23. 50 Corey Heim 29th -6
24. 99 Daniel Suarez 22nd +2
25. 10 Noah Gragson 10th +15
26. 41 Ryan Preece 4th +22
27. 43 Erik Jones 34th -7
28. 7 Corey LaJoie 20th +8
29. 14 Chase Briscoe 21st +8
30. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 30th +0
31. 38 Todd Gilliland 17th +14
32. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 31st +1
33. 15 Riley Herbst 37th +4
34. 21 Harrison Burton 28th +6
35. 51 Justin Haley 13th +22
36. 31 Daniel Hemric 9th +27
37. 71 Zane Smith 2nd +35
38. 66 Chad Finchum 38th +0

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.