This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 New Hampshire race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: New Hampshire (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 34th
Last weeks winner: Ryan Blaney
Projected Finish: 10th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-10 of the 36 drivers finished withing 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-15 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-7 of the 36 drivers finished 15+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished in the Top 13
Notes from all point race projections this year (17 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 27 of 635, 4.25%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 283 of 635, 44.57%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 230 of 635, 36.22%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 17, 17.65%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 87 of 170, 51.18%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Brad Keselowski
Disappointment: Ryan Preece
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 24th -23 |
| 2. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 18th -16 |
| 3. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 4th -1 |
| 4. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 28th -24 |
| 5. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 9th -4 |
| 6. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 25th -19 |
| 7. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 6th +1 |
| 8. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 1st +7 |
| 9. | 22 | Joey Logano | 32nd -23 |
| 10. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 10th +0 |
| 11. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 16th -5 |
| 12. | 24 | William Byron | 26th -14 |
| 13. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 34th -21 |
| 14. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 5th +9 |
| 15. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 17th -2 |
| 16. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 2nd +14 |
| 17. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 27th -10 |
| 18. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 21st -3 |
| 19. | 4 | Josh Berry | 3rd +16 |
| 20. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 36th -16 |
| 21. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 19th +2 |
| 22. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 15th +7 |
| 23. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 31st -8 |
| 24. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 33rd -9 |
| 25. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 35th -10 |
| 26. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 7th +19 |
| 27. | 51 | Justin Haley | 29th -2 |
| 28. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 12th +16 |
| 29. | 71 | Zane Smith | 30th -1 |
| 30. | 16 | Ty Dillon | 20th +10 |
| 31. | 43 | Erik Jones | 13th +18 |
| 32. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 23rd +9 |
| 33. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 8th +25 |
| 34. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 22nd +12 |
| 35. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 14th +21 |
| 36. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 11th +25 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
