This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Sonoma race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Sonoma (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Ryan Blaney
Finished: 24th (would have been 1st with enough fuel)
Last weeks winner: Austin Cindric
Projected Finish: 5th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Derek Kraus 30th)
-10 of the 36 drivers finished withing 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-12 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished in the Top 12
Notes from all point race projections this year (15 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 24 of 561, 4.28%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 248 of 561, 44.21%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 206 of 561, 36.72%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 15, 13.33%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 74 of 150, 49.33%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Ross Chastain
Disappointment: Erik Jones
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 4th -2 |
| 3. | 24 | William Byron | 30th -27 |
| 4. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 5th -1 |
| 5. | 22 | Joey Logano | 21st -16 |
| 6. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 2nd +4 |
| 7. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 37th -30 |
| 8. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 6th +2 |
| 9. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 8th +1 |
| 10. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 3rd +7 |
| 11. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 7th +4 |
| 12. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 27th -15 |
| 13. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 9th +4 |
| 14. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 14th +0 |
| 15. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 15th +0 |
| 16. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 12th +4 |
| 17. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 18th -1 |
| 18. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 38th -20 |
| 19. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 36th -17 |
| 20. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 17th +3 |
| 21. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 22nd -1 |
| 22. | 33 | Will Brown | 31st -9 |
| 23. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 20th +3 |
| 24. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 26th -2 |
| 25. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 10th +15 |
| 26. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 13th +13 |
| 27. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 34th -7 |
| 28. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 24th +4 |
| 29. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 11th +18 |
| 30. | 60 | Cam Waters | 35th -5 |
| 31. | 4 | Josh Berry | 32nd -1 |
| 32. | 51 | Justin Haley | 33rd -1 |
| 33. | 71 | Zane Smith | 16th +17 |
| 34. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 25th +9 |
| 35. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 29th +6 |
| 36. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 28th +8 |
| 37. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 23rd +14 |
| 38. | 43 | Erik Jones | 19th +19 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
