This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Sonoma race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Sonoma (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Ryan Blaney
Finished: 24th (would have been 1st with enough fuel)
Last weeks winner: Austin Cindric
Projected Finish: 5th

Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Derek Kraus 30th)
-10 of the 36 drivers finished withing 2 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-12 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 12 drivers finished in the Top 12

Notes from all point race projections this year (15 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 24 of 561, 4.28%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 248 of 561, 44.21%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 206 of 561, 36.72%
-Correct Winner projections: 2 of 15, 13.33%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 74 of 150, 49.33%

Notable results this week

Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Ross Chastain
Disappointment: Erik Jones

Kyle Larson was able to take home the Sonoma win in 2021 and the stats say that the 2024 will yield the same result for the 5 team this weekend. Photo by Maddie Meyer — Getty Images

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 5 Kyle Larson 1st +0
2. 9 Chase Elliott 4th -2
3. 24 William Byron 30th -27
4. 1 Ross Chastain 5th -1
5. 22 Joey Logano 21st -16
6. 34 Michael McDowell 2nd +4
7. 54 Ty Gibbs 37th -30
8. 16 A.J. Allmendinger 6th +2
9. 45 Tyler Reddick 8th +1
10. 17 Chris Buescher 3rd +7
11. 12 Ryan Blaney 7th +4
12. 19 Martin Truex Jr. 27th -15
13. 20 Christopher Bell 9th +4
14. 99 Daniel Suarez 14th +0
15. 48 Alex Bowman 15th +0
16. 8 Kyle Busch 12th +4
17. 41 Ryan Preece 18th -1
18. 11 Denny Hamlin 38th -20
19. 3 Austin Dillon 36th -17
20. 77 Carson Hocevar 17th +3
21. 2 Austin Cindric 22nd -1
22. 33 Will Brown 31st -9
23. 23 Bubba Wallace 20th +3
24. 10 Noah Gragson 26th -2
25. 38 Todd Gilliland 10th +15
26. 6 Brad Keselowski 13th +13
27. 14 Chase Briscoe 34th -7
28. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 24th +4
29. 7 Corey LaJoie 11th +18
30. 60 Cam Waters 35th -5
31. 4 Josh Berry 32nd -1
32. 51 Justin Haley 33rd -1
33. 71 Zane Smith 16th +17
34. 21 Harrison Burton 25th +9
35. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 29th +6
36. 31 Daniel Hemric 28th +8
37. 15 Kaz Grala 23rd +14
38. 43 Erik Jones 19th +19

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.