After experimenting with the road course at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, NASCAR returns to the oval at the historic track. Excitement is abound with the Cup Series bringing back a crown jewel event. Whether the racing is good or not is almost irrelevant; the fact that NASCAR is back on the oval is the right move. With that said, the NextGen car has put on quality shows on longer ovals compared to the previous car. Auto Club and Michigan have been notable tracks that benefitted from the NextGen. Unfortunately, last week’s Pocono race was a bit of a snoozer. Will that be proven to be a one-off or a bad omen for things to come this weekend? Nonetheless, it is time to look forward to Indy this weekend. Who will be the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the Brickyard 400?
The upcoming Brickyard 400 will be the last NASCAR sanctioned event (in North America) for two weeks. Sadly, the Summer Olympics will take priority for NBC’s coverage. For the Cup Series, it will be the first off-week on the season. During those off-weeks, teams will prepare for the remaining points/playoff battles in the final four races. The regular season championship is up for grabs as three drivers are within 20 points of points leader Chase Elliott. Meanwhile, the playoff cutline looks a bit more mundane. Bubba Wallace trails Ross Chastain by 27 points. However, a new winner at the Brickyard 400 could spice up the points battle there. Could one of the 5 Drivers to Watch be the one to upset the playoff standings?
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
John Hunter Nemechek
The return to the Cup Series has not been as smooth as John Hunter Nemechek hoped. Through 21 races, Nemechek has only finished on the lead lap in 7 of them while averaging a 24.2 finish. That is 2.2 spots worse than his average during his rookie season with Front Row Motorsports. Based on how well Front Row has been running compared to Legacy Motor Club, maybe the career reset was not the wisest choice.
That said, John Hunter Nemechek might be able to right the ship in Indianapolis. His teammates, Erik Jones, ran well at Pocono. If a Legacy Motor Club entry could perform solidly at Pocono, there is little reason to doubt it could happen again. Why not Nemechek this weekend? When it comes to the middling performances, the blame seems to be aimed at the team rather than driver. Nemechek is performing better than Noah Gragson did last year. Granted, that is not giving Nemechek a ton of credit.
Still, Nemechek is a talented driver who is capable a putting together a strong run. He did navigate the 42 to a Top-10 under damp circumstances in Loudon. With the Toyota strength on flat tracks, LMC should be able to give Nemechek a car to be competitive in. Look for the 42 to be running inside the Top-20 this weekend.
Alex Bowman
For the first time since Bristol/COTA, Alex Bowman is entering a race weekend after back-to-back Top-5s. Bowman picked up his first win since 2022 on the Chicago Street Course while using fuel strategy to gain track position at Pocono. While Bowman’s 2024 has been solid (if not unremarkable), the win definitely put wind in the 48’s sail. Any notion of silly season rumors have immediately died down, as his place at Hendrick Motorsports is solidified. With that win, he no longer needs to care about the cutline. Also, he is too deep in the standings to worry about points racing for the regular season championship. Win or bust mentality now.
As for the Brickyard 400, Alex Bowman’s history on the Indy oval does not lend to optimism. In 5 starts, Bowman has only finished inside the Top-30 once while having a DNF twice. Removing the 2 starts in back marker equipment, Bowman’s 3 Hendrick Motorsports starts saw a best finish of 23rd. To be fair, that was the previous car and before Bowman was as established as he is today. Outside of his time after the back injury last year, Bowman has been one of the most consistent drivers in the Cup Series. Despite sitting tenth in points, Bowman is tied for the second most Top-10s. His ability to navigate his way into the Top-10 will bode well this weekend. A fuel/tire strategy race should unfold, which might let the Brickyard 400 fall right into Bowman’s lap.
Brad Keselowski
Only 1 of 3 drivers in the field to have a Brickyard 400 win, Brad Keselowski likely welcomes the return of the oval more than most. Road courses have been Keselowski’s bugaboo, so replacing one with an oval is a benefit for the RFK Racing owner. However, Indianapolis is not simply any oval for Keselowski. It is one of his best tracks in the pre-NextGen era. Along with his win, Keselowski averaged a 12.9 finish with only 2 results outside the Top-20. If history matters this weekend, Keselowski should find himself comfortable back on the oval.
Ford has been on the upswing in recent weeks. Since Keselowski’s win at Darlington, the manufacturer has been able to win every other race. In addition to the winning, the Fords have been more competitive inside the Top-5-and-10. Arguably, Keselowski has been the most consistent of that bunch. There have been some poor results due to weather or unlucky wrecks, but Keselowski’s 6 car has been a staple of the Top-5 since early May. That speed will serve wonders for Keselowski at Indianapolis. While many will assume Toyota will have the edge, no one should count out the Fords, RFK Racing, and, especially, Brad Keselowski.
Ty Gibbs
Earlier this season, Ty Gibbs looked to be on the verge of picking up his first Cup Series win. His average finish ranked as one of the best and he was impressing. Since COTA, the results have waned a bit. Although the speed has remained most weeks, Gibbs has struggled to stay competitive throughout a race. Pocono is a perfect example of this. Gibbs qualified on pole and led early, but failed to maintain his track position. Ultimately, he was undone by a sour engine. Since the Coca-Cola 600, Gibbs has only collected a single Top-10. Extending that back to COTA, that number only grows to 4.
Despite the recent run of poor results, Indianapolis is an opportunity to capitalize on the speed featured at Pocono. If Pocono is truly an indication of how Indy will race, then Ty Gibbs is certainly a dark horse pick for the win. There is a strong chance that Gibbs nabs another pole. Sure, Gibbs has no experience on the oval. How much will that factor into the Brickyard 400? For Gibbs, not likely to be that big of a factor. The question is whether Gibbs can avoid any sort of trouble. Under the assumption he can, Gibbs might stamp collect his first crown jewel win of his young career.
Kyle Busch
What new and unique way will Kyle Busch and the 8 team torture their fanbase this week? It has been a comedy of errors for Busch this season, extending from his poor second half last year. If it not a crash, then the car is simply slow. Car is fast and Busch can avoid any on-track incidents? Then the pit crew will churn out slow pit stops throughout the race. Especially in the past couple of months, this Richard Childress Racing team has not been able to overcome adversity. These struggles are shining a spotlight on the team and driver, with Busch looking more checked out as the weeks progress.
Kyle Busch is essentially in “must-win” territory for the playoffs. While Busch claims to not be concerned about making the playoffs, surely there is some desire to find his way in there. Now, Busch has stated winning is his top priority (over the playoffs). It could be a two birds, one stone situation though. If Busch manages to pull a win out of his rear end by the time the Southern 500 ends, then he will make the playoffs. Outside of Daytona, this weekend might present his best opportunity. Along with Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch is in that limited category of former Brickyard 400 winners. As long as the 8 team can diagnose the issues from Pocono, a somewhat competitive car could be carried to race winning potential by Busch. If not, Busch will be one to watch to see what pain the 2024 season can further inflict.
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