Happy Fourth of July race fans! After the Cup Series boogied in Nashville, it is time to hit the streets of Chicago for the Grant Park 165. The second running of the Chicago Street Course will hopefully be as enthralling as the inaugural event. But this time, please leave the rain somewhere else. If not for the racing, at least for the concerts that NASCAR is pushing as highly as the on-track action. An argument could be made that the rain actually enhanced last year’s race. It allowed for more mistakes to open up passing opportunities and shortened the distance to add drama. In the end, Shane van Gisbergen schooled the field and picked up a Cup win in his first effort. Heading into this year, who will be the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch in the Grant Park 165?
As the playoffs draw near, this weekend could be an opportunity for a new winner to not upset the playoff cutline. With numerous non-playoff eligible drivers in the field, there is a chance one of them pulls the upset. For the drivers near the cutline, that would be preferred over a new winner behind them in points. Will there be another Shane van Gisbergen-esque performance this year? Or perhaps the Cup Series regulars will look to prove their merits on a street course. SVG coming in and winning ruffled some feathers with the regulars. They might feel that they have something to prove in Chicago. Either way, the hope is that Chicago puts on another good showing as it did last year.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Shane van Gisbergen
Where else to start than last year’s winner. Shane van Gisbergen will be making his fourth Cup start of the 2024 season this weekend. His other three have come at COTA, Talladega, and Charlotte respectively. Thus far, he has failed to finish in the Top-15 in any of those events. His best performance was COTA, where the New Zealander finished 20th. Same as the previous starts, Gisbergen will be piloting Kaulig Racing’s 16 entry rather than Trackhouse’s 91. With Kaulig’s diminishment in Cup evident, will Shane van Gisbergen be able to replicate last year’s success?
Since it is a street course, it would be improbable to think that Gisbergen will not be a factor upfront. While neither of his non-Chicago road course Cup starts have been as impressive, a street course is where SVG will thrive the most compared to the Cup Drivers. His veteran savvy will certainly help boost him in the right direction. Plus, AJ Allmendinger has managed two 6th place results in his Cup starts with Kaulig. Expect Shane van Gisbergen to shine once again this weekend. However, the question is whether he will school the field in the same way. Without rain, there is a good chance that the road course aces of the Cup Series will do better at holding their own. You cannot rule out another SVG win, but it might be more difficult this year.
Joey Hand
Another road course, another new driver at the helm for RFK Racing’s Stage 60. This weekend, the man behind the wheel will be Joey Hand. This will be Hand’s 8th start in the Cup Series. Easily, this will be the best equipment the road course ringer will have driven in NASCAR. Granted, that did not seem to do too many favors for Cam Waters at Sonoma.
All of Hand’s previous NASCAR starts came with Rick Ware Racing. Hand managed to be competitive for Top-20s in the RWR ride. That should bode well for his time with RFK Racing this weekend. Plus, Hand has been driving fulltime in the GTDP class of the WeatherTech Sportscar Championship. In his 65 Ford Multimatic Motorsports, Hand (and his teammates) have been averaging a Top-10 finish in their class. While it is shy of the peak performance Hand had in the late-2010s, it is solid enough and has Hand driving a similar style car to the NextGen.
More than likely, the highest expectation you should have for Joey Hand is a Top-20. There is nothing to indicate that Hand will shoot up the leaderboard, ala SVG last season. However, he could be a surprise dark horse in the race. Still, that 60 Build Submarines car will be one to watch in the Grant Park 165.
Kyle Larson
Kyle Larson already picked up a road course win in his home state of California. Using tire strategy, Larson managed to pass Martin Truex Jr and Chris Buescher before setting sail on the field. Now, Larson will look to pick up his first street course win this weekend. Larson is one of the top road racers in the Cup Series. As displayed last year, Larson took well to the Chicago streets. During the early stretches of the race, Larson battled Tyler Reddick and Gisbergen for the lead. This year should be no different. Now, you can mark down Kyle Larson as a potential winner for almost every non-superspeedway race. However, the street course is a very unique type of track for the Cup drivers. For how well Larson took to it last year, he could be the best fulltime Cup driver to watch.
Had last year’s Chicago Street Course race went the full distance, Kyle Larson might have been able to catch Shane van Gisbergen. As the laps were winding down, Larson was the fastest car on track and catching the leader. Ultimately, Larson ran out of laps before he could catch SVG. It would have been great television to watch Larson attempt to pass Gisbergen in the closing laps though. How would each competitor raced each other? While now fans know SVG is not afraid to race rough, would he have thrown blocks or used his car to muscle Larson away? Would Larson manage to outmaneuver the former Supercars champion? Maybe fans can find out this year.
Todd Gilliland
While his teammate receives most of the road course praise, Todd Gilliland holds his own on the lefts and rights. Especially on the more technical road courses, Gilliland has demonstrated his skill well. So far this season, Gilliland has a Top-10 and 2 Top-20s on road courses. Last year in Chicago, Gilliland brought the 38 home in 19th. During his time in the Truck Series, Gilliland picked up the win in the inaugural COTA race. His history on the technical road courses should help him run well on the streets once again.
So far this season, it has been a career year for Todd Gilliland. Not only did he receive a contract extension from Front Row Motorsports, but he is compiling solid results from great runs. Since Kansas, Gilliland has finished inside the Top-15 5 times. If not for pit road issues, some of those could have been Top-10s. His consistency has put him in the running for the Top-20 of points, ahead of his teammate. While he is unlikely to point his way into the playoffs, a Top-20 points finish for the 38 Front Row entry has not happened before. The best finish for that team was 26th with David Ragan in 2016. With his recent runs, Gilliland is slowly climbing his way into a steady Top-10 conversation. Will Gilliland continue to shine in Chicago?
Erik Jones
There has been little to celebrate in the 2024 season for Erik Jones. For the second straight season, the performance from Legacy Motor Club has been on the decline. Since his Top-10 at Daytona, Jones and the 43 team have barely been featured in the Top-10. Most weeks, it is a struggle to compete for a Top-20. After a solid 2022 season, Jones has been unable to replicate that success since the rebrand to Legacy Motor Club. Along with the poor performance, 2024 also saw Jones break his back at Talladega and miss 2 races. Rough times.
Heading into Chicago, Erik Jones will look to build some momentum as the regular season winds down. With the aforementioned 2 races missed due to injury, making the playoffs will come down to winning. Chicago will likely not be the race where that occurs. However, that is not to discount Jones’ ability on the road courses. Jones has shown strong road course skills over his Cup career. His best finish came at the ROVAL with Joe Gibbs Racing, which was a third in 2020. While he has yet to finish Top-5 on a road course in the 43, he has racked up 3 Top-10s. It would definitely be an upset if Jones pulled out the win. However, he does the skill to do so if given the right track position late in the race.
Critical Path Security is a cyber security firm protecting clients in the United States and the world beyond. Founded in 2017, they are as dedicated as ever to providing coverage for their clients in numerous industries. Please give them a follow (X, Facebook, LinkedIn) and thank them for their weekly sponsorship of the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch.
