Talk about polar opposites in terms of tracks. From the busy streets of Chicago to the mountains of Pennsylvania. 12 turns of a street course with people watching from skyscrapers leads to the Tricky Triangle of Pocono in the forest. As the regular season continues to wind down, there are only two race weekends left before the Olympics put the season on pause. Before that pause, will there be another new winner on the season? 4 of the past 6 races have seen a first time winner. In total, there have been 12 unique winners. Could there be a 13th in Pocono? Maybe it will be one of the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway.
With those 12 unique winners, the bubble watch has turned a bit complex. The separation from at the cutline is 45 points, which is hefty margin. However, 3 drivers inside the playoffs on points (currently) sit within 39 points of each other. A new winner outside the Top-16 would create an intense bubble battle. A considerable gap at the cutline means the drivers below it will essentially only go after wins. No logic in points racing unless one of the current playoff drivers starts slipping up. That means more Michael McDowell at New Hampshire inspired moves in closing laps. Pocono is not know for those type of desperations move, but the track has its own form of going for broke. Look for fuel strategies to be the edge teams look to exploit for the win.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Denny Hamlin
There have been few drivers better at Pocono than Denny Hamlin. In his career at the track, Hamlin has racked up 7 wins (8 when considering his disqualification in 2022) with an average finish of 11.5. With the NextGen car, Hamlin has crossed the finish line first in both races. Each race saw Hamlin use up a competitor coming out of Turn 1. 2022 was Ross Chastain and Kyle Larson received the honor last year. Still, Hamlin has figured out the Tricky Triangle in this new car.
Pocono Raceway might be the best medicine for Denny Hamlin’s recent woes. Since his streak of 5 Top-5s starting with his Dover win, Hamlin has a best finish of 12th in the past 5 races. Now, Nashville and dry New Hampshire saw the 11 car with great speed. However, Iowa, Sonoma, and Chicago were all missteps from Hamlin and the team. A summer slump has seemingly hit the Toyotas not named Christopher Bell or Tyler Reddick. The expectation is that Pocono can be a reprieve from these struggles, at least for one week. With that said, Hamlin’s 2 NextGen wins were not dominate affairs. He maintained Top-5 position most of each race, but only led a combined 30 laps. Still, Hamlin should be one of the favorites to win in Pocono.
Chris Buescher
Chris Buescher is now the playoff cutline driver. After Alex Bowman won in Chicago, Buescher currently sits as the last driver in on points with 6 races left to go. He leads Bubba Wallace by 45 points and only trails Ross Chastain by 8. If there is no new winner from behind his position, then Buescher is relatively safe from losing his playoff spot. However, this season seems destined for more chaos, especially with Daytona looming in late August. Buescher will surely go after wins, but it is likely his team will be doing points racing against Chastain.
Although Pocono Raceway is home to Buescher’s first career win, the Prosper native has not found much success at the Tricky Triangle. Aside from that win, Buescher only has one other Top-10 (2020). His average finish is 20.6 with the majority of his better finishes coming during his Front Row tenure. Still, Buescher has managed to pull out strong finishes this season at unfavorable tracks. Maybe Pocono can be one of those this weekend. What helps Buescher is that is he starting to find more consistency in his finishes. Over the past 5 races, his average finish is 10.2
Daniel Hemric
An unexpected driver who has some momentum heading into Pocono is Daniel Hemric. Back to back Top-15 finishes sees Hemric go to a track where he has found success in both the Cup and Xfinity Series. In 2 Cup starts at Pocono, the Kaulig driver managed to pilot his car to Top-15 finishes. Meanwhile, all but one of his Xfinity Series starts resulted in a Top-10. However, those 2 Cup starts came back in 2019 during his rookie season. Hemric has yet to run a lap at Pocono in the NextGen.
Despite that, Hemric will be a good driver to watch in the mid-pack. The 31 car has shown flashes of competitiveness for Top-15s. With Hemric’s recent success at Pocono in the Xfinity Series, there is reason to believe that he can continue this mini-streak of positivity. The goal for the 31 team will be a Top-20, which should be feasible without crazy strategy. However, Pocono could open the door to chaos. With no other way to sneak their way into the playoffs, it would not be surprising to find Hemric and crew taking a bold pit strategy to steal a win.
Noah Gragson
For the third straight week, a Stewart-Haas Racing driver will enter a race weekend fresh off a 2025 announcement. For Noah Gragson, he was officially tabbed as the second driver for Front Row Motorsports on Wednesday. Now, Gragson will look to improve upon his teammates’ lack of success immediately after their announcements.
Pocono has been a great track for Gragson in the Xfinity Series. In 4 starts, Gragson has picked up a win along with 2 other Top-6s. Even during his awful rookie season, Pocono tied his best non-superspeedway oval finish (22nd). Based on how well the 10 car has been running, a Top-10 performance is certainly in the picture for Gragson. The silly season situation will be behind him now that his plans are known. While the turmoil within the dying days of SHR are continuing, at least Gragson can be solely focused on his 2024 performance.
A Noah Gragson win would be farfetched, but his record at Pocono cannot be ignored. While his only Cup start was a 22nd place finish, that is almost triumphant with how poorly he did with Legacy Motor Club. If the setup is right, watch for Gragson to unload with speed this weekend. Pocono Raceway feels like the track where the 10 car will be near the front more often than fans would expect.
Christopher Bell
Since Memorial Day weekend, a recurring question for the Cup Series each weekend is what will stop Christopher Bell from winning the race. Since the Coca-Cola 600, the 20 car has been consistently the fastest car on track. Despite this, Bell has only picked up 1 additional win. The past two weekends has seen the 20 car DNF due to being caught in the mid-pack. For a third straight season, the question of speed is not the issue for Bell. Consistency and mistakes have been.
Based on his recent performances, Christopher Bell will likely run out front for The Great American Getaway 400. Intermediate, road course, wet track, or dry track has not affected Bell’s speed. A long, triangular shaped track should be no different. What might hurt Bell the most is the inability to run the race in damp conditions. Bell has been impressive with the wet weather tires. However, that is not possible at Pocono. Still, the 20 car should be a leader of the field. If it is, can Bell keep it out of the wall until the finish? Will something arise again to keep Bell from setting a new career high in wins?
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