This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Indianapolis race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Indianapolis (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Martin Truex Jr.
Finished: 8th
Last weeks winner: Ryan Blaney
Projected Finish: 19th
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (William Byron 4th & Austin Cindric 18th)
-11 of the 37 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-12 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished in the Top 13
Notes from all point race projections this year (21 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 35 of 786, 4.45%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 335 of 786, 42.62%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 302 of 786, 38.42%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 21, 14.29%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 104 of 210, 49.52%
Notable results this week
Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Joey Logano
Disappointment: Kyle Busch
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 32nd -31 |
| 2. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 2nd +0 |
| 3. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 10th -7 |
| 4. | 24 | William Byron | 38th -34 |
| 5. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 4th +1 |
| 6. | 22 | Joey Logano | 34th -28 |
| 7. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 1st +6 |
| 8. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 3rd +5 |
| 9. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 21st -12 |
| 10. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 22nd -12 |
| 11. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 31st -20 |
| 12. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 23rd -11 |
| 13. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 5th +8 |
| 14. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 11th +3 |
| 15. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 27th -12 |
| 16. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 8th +8 |
| 17. | 43 | Erik Jones | 28th -11 |
| 18. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 14th +4 |
| 19. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 13th +6 |
| 20. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 7th +13 |
| 21. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 15th +6 |
| 22. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 12th +10 |
| 23. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 37th -14 |
| 24. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 25th -1 |
| 25. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 36th -11 |
| 26. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 16th +10 |
| 27. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 29th -2 |
| 28. | 71 | Zane Smith | 17th +11 |
| 29. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 24th +5 |
| 30. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 6th +24 |
| 31. | 33 | Ty Dillon | 19th +12 |
| 32. | 84 | Jimmie Johnson | 33rd -1 |
| 33. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 9th +24 |
| 34. | 4 | Josh Berry | 35th -1 |
| 35. | 51 | Justin Haley | 20th +15 |
| 36. | 15 | Cody Ware | 18th +18 |
| 37. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 30th +7 |
| 38. | 66 | B.J. McLeod | 39th -1 |
| 39. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 26th +13 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
