This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Indianapolis race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Indianapolis (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Martin Truex Jr.
Finished: 8th
Last weeks winner: Ryan Blaney
Projected Finish: 19th

Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (William Byron 4th & Austin Cindric 18th)
-11 of the 37 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-12 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 13 drivers finished in the Top 13

Notes from all point race projections this year (21 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 35 of 786, 4.45%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 335 of 786, 42.62%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 302 of 786, 38.42%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 21, 14.29%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 104 of 210, 49.52%

Notable results this week

Winner: Denny Hamlin
One to Watch: Joey Logano
Disappointment: Kyle Busch

Denny Hamlin was on fire in the last Indy oval race, unfortunately for him it was literal and figurative. However, the numbers say this weekend will be his year to win the Brickyard. Photo by Jamie Squire — Getty Images

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 11 Denny Hamlin 32nd -31
2. 45 Tyler Reddick 2nd +0
3. 9 Chase Elliott 10th -7
4. 24 William Byron 38th -34
5. 20 Christopher Bell 4th +1
6. 22 Joey Logano 34th -28
7. 5 Kyle Larson 1st +6
8. 12 Ryan Blaney 3rd +5
9. 6 Brad Keselowski 21st -12
10. 17 Chris Buescher 22nd -12
11. 48 Alex Bowman 31st -20
12. 54 Ty Gibbs 23rd -11
13. 23 Bubba Wallace 5th +8
14. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 11th +3
15. 19 Martin Truex Jr. 27th -12
16. 99 Daniel Suarez 8th +8
17. 43 Erik Jones 28th -11
18. 7 Corey LaJoie 14th +4
19. 3 Austin Dillon 13th +6
20. 2 Austin Cindric 7th +13
21. 1 Ross Chastain 15th +6
22. 77 Carson Hocevar 12th +10
23. 16 A.J. Allmendinger 37th -14
24. 8 Kyle Busch 25th -1
25. 21 Harrison Burton 36th -11
26. 34 Michael McDowell 16th +10
27. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 29th -2
28. 71 Zane Smith 17th +11
29. 14 Chase Briscoe 24th +5
30. 38 Todd Gilliland 6th +24
31. 33 Ty Dillon 19th +12
32. 84 Jimmie Johnson 33rd -1
33. 10 Noah Gragson 9th +24
34. 4 Josh Berry 35th -1
35. 51 Justin Haley 20th +15
36. 15 Cody Ware 18th +18
37. 31 Daniel Hemric 30th +7
38. 66 B.J. McLeod 39th -1
39. 41 Ryan Preece 26th +13

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.