This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Pocono race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Pocono (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 39th
Last weeks winner: Alex Bowman
Projected Finish: 6th
Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Ty Gibbs 3rd & Daniel Suarez 11th)
-14 of the 40 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 40 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the 40 drivers finished 25+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-4 of the projected Top 6 drivers finished in the Top 6
Notes from all point race projections this year (20 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 33 of 749, 4.41%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 315 of 749, 42.06%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 290 of 749, 38.72%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 20, 15.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 98 of 200, 49.00%
Notable results this week
Winner: Martin Truex Jr.
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Chase Briscoe
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 8th -7 |
| 2. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 27th -25 |
| 3. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 6th -3 |
| 4. | 24 | William Byron | 4th +0 |
| 5. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 2nd +3 |
| 6. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 10th -4 |
| 7. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 9th -2 |
| 8. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 12th -4 |
| 9. | 43 | Erik Jones | 14th -5 |
| 10. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 16th -6 |
| 11. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 13th -2 |
| 12. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 7th +5 |
| 13. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 3rd +10 |
| 14. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 24th -10 |
| 15. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 17th -2 |
| 16. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 36th -20 |
| 17. | 22 | Joey Logano | 5th +12 |
| 18. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 18th +0 |
| 19. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 1st +18 |
| 20. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 11th +9 |
| 21. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 31st -10 |
| 22. | 71 | Zane Smith | 29th -7 |
| 23. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 33rd -10 |
| 24. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 32nd -8 |
| 25. | 4 | Josh Berry | 20th +5 |
| 26. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 21st +5 |
| 27. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 25th +2 |
| 28. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 23rd +5 |
| 29. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 19th +10 |
| 30. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 28th +2 |
| 31. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 34th -3 |
| 32. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 37th -5 |
| 33. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 15th +18 |
| 34. | 51 | Justin Haley | 22nd +12 |
| 35. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 30th +5 |
| 36. | 15 | Cody Ware | 26th +10 |
| 37. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 35th +2 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
