This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Pocono race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Pocono (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 39th
Last weeks winner: Alex Bowman
Projected Finish: 6th

Additional notes from last race:
-2 drivers finished where they were projected (Ty Gibbs 3rd & Daniel Suarez 11th)
-14 of the 40 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 40 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-6 of the 40 drivers finished 25+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-4 of the projected Top 6 drivers finished in the Top 6

Notes from all point race projections this year (20 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 33 of 749, 4.41%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 315 of 749, 42.06%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 290 of 749, 38.72%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 20, 15.00%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 98 of 200, 49.00%

Notable results this week

Winner: Martin Truex Jr.
One to Watch: Ty Gibbs
Disappointment: Chase Briscoe

According to the stats and his speed this weekend Martin Truex Jr. will be celebrating in victory lane at the end of the race today. Photo by Sarah Crabill — Getty Images

Proj. Finish Number Driver Finish/Diff.
1. 19 Martin Truex Jr. 8th -7
2. 54 Ty Gibbs 27th -25
3. 45 Tyler Reddick 6th -3
4. 24 William Byron 4th +0
5. 11 Denny Hamlin 2nd +3
6. 23 Bubba Wallace 10th -4
7. 9 Chase Elliott 9th -2
8. 20 Christopher Bell 12th -4
9. 43 Erik Jones 14th -5
10. 99 Daniel Suarez 16th -6
11. 5 Kyle Larson 13th -2
12. 6 Brad Keselowski 7th +5
13. 48 Alex Bowman 3rd +10
14. 34 Michael McDowell 24th -10
15. 77 Carson Hocevar 17th -2
16. 1 Ross Chastain 36th -20
17. 22 Joey Logano 5th +12
18. 2 Austin Cindric 18th +0
19. 12 Ryan Blaney 1st +18
20. 17 Chris Buescher 11th +9
21. 21 Harrison Burton 31st -10
22. 71 Zane Smith 29th -7
23. 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 33rd -10
24. 8 Kyle Busch 32nd -8
25. 4 Josh Berry 20th +5
26. 16 A.J. Allmendinger 21st +5
27. 31 Daniel Hemric 25th +2
28. 3 Austin Dillon 23rd +5
29. 7 Corey LaJoie 19th +10
30. 42 John Hunter Nemechek 28th +2
31. 38 Todd Gilliland 34th -3
32. 10 Noah Gragson 37th -5
33. 14 Chase Briscoe 15th +18
34. 51 Justin Haley 22nd +12
35. 41 Ryan Preece 30th +5
36. 15 Cody Ware 26th +10
37. 44 J.J. Yeley 35th +2

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.