Clinching Scenarios: Craftsman Truck Series – Richmond

In the last Truck race, IRP, we saw Ty Majeski punch his ticket to the playoffs by winning the race, and we also saw Tyler Ankrum, along with Grant Enfinger, clinch their playoff spot on points. Now we go to the season finale, Richmond, where there are 7 drivers who could get one of 3 driver playoff spots remaining and 9 owners who could get one of 5 owner playoff spots remaining. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Playoffs. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Regular Season Points Championship Clinching Scenarios

1) Christian Eckes
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st (3)

• • • Needs 1 of the following scenarios:
      • 11 points (26th place finish)
      • Be within 49 points of Corey Heim

2) Corey Heim
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st (5)

• • • Needs 1 of the following scenarios:
      • 50+ points more than Christian Eckes

Driver Playoff Spot Clinching Scenarios

8) Taylor Gray
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd, 4th (3), 6th

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 8 points (29th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
      • Be within 25 points of Ben Rhodes
      • Be within 43 points of Tanner Gray
      • Be within 47 points of Daniel Dye
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Needs 12 points (25th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the scenarios above if Dye wins
    • Needs 2 of the scenarios above if any eligible driver below Dye in points wins

9) Ben Rhodes
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 3rd, 5th, 7th (3)

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 34 points (3rd place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
      • 27+ points more than Taylor Gray
      • Be within 16 points of Tanner Gray
      • Be within 21 points of Daniel Dye
      • Be within 32 points of Stewart Friesen
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Needs 39 points (2nd place finish + 4 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if Dye/Friesen wins
    • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if any eligible driver below Friesen in points wins

10) Tanner Gray
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 7th, 8th, 10th (2), 11th

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 51 points (2nd place finish + 16 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 44+ points more than Taylor Gray
      • 18+ points more than Ben Rhodes
      • Be within 4 points of Daniel Dye
      • Be within 15 points of Stewart Friesen
      • Be within 42 points of Matt Crafton
      • Be within 44 points of Chase Purdy
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above if Dye/Friesen/Crafton/Purdy wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs 5 of the scenarios above if any eligible driver below Purdy in points wins

11) Daniel Dye
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd, 6th, 9th (3)

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 49+ points more than Taylor Gray
      • 23+ points more than Ben Rhodes
      • 5+ points more than Tanner Gray
      • Be within 10 points of Stewart Friesen
      • Be within 37 points of Matt Crafton
      • Be within 39 points of Chase Purdy
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above if Friesen/Crafton/Purdy wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs 5 of the scenarios above if any eligible driver below Purdy in points wins

12) Stewart Friesen
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd, 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 34+ points more than Ben Rhodes
      • 17+ points more than Tanner Gray
      • 12+ points more than Daniel Dye
      • Be within 37 points of Matt Crafton
      • Be within 39 points of Chase Purdy
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above if Dye/Crafton/Purdy wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs all 5 of the scenarios above if any eligible driver below Purdy in points wins

13) Matt Crafton
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 4th, 7th (2), 8th, 10th

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs all 4* of the following scenarios
      • 44+ points more than Tanner Gray
      • 39+ points more than Daniel Dye
      • 28+ points more than Stewart Friesen
      • Be within 1 point of Chase Purdy
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Must Win

14) Chase Purdy
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 3rd, 6th (3), 13th

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs all 4* of the following scenarios
      • 46+ points more than Tanner Gray
      • 41+ points more than Daniel Dye
      • 30+ points more than Stewart Friesen
      • 3+ points more than Matt Crafton
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Must Win

Owner Regular Season Points Championship Clinching Scenarios

1) McAnally Hilgemann Racing No.19
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st (3)

• • • Needs 1 of the following scenarios:
      • 11 points (26th place finish)
      • Be within 49 points of the No.11

2) TRICON Garage No.11
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st (5)

• • • Needs 1 of the following scenarios:
      • 50+ points more than the No.19

Owner Playoff Spot Clinching Scenarios

6) Spire Motorsports No.7
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st (2), 2nd, 4th, 5th

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Clinched
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Needs 3 points (34th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1 of the following scenarios
      • Be within 18 points of the No.18
      • Be within 24 points of the No.9
      • Be within 40 points of the No.45
      • Be within 53 points of the No.17

7) McAnally Hilgemann Racing No.18
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd, 4th, 5th (3)

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Clinched
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Needs 21 points (16th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1 of the following scenarios
      • 19+ points more than the No.7
      • Be within 5 points of the No.9
      • Be within 21 points of the No.45
      • Be within 34 points of the No.17

8) CR7 Motorsports No.9
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd (2), 3rd (2), 6th

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs to start the race
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Needs 27 points (10th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1 of the following scenarios
      • 25+ points more than the No.7
      • 6+ points more than the No.18
      • Be within 15 points of the No.45
      • Be within 29 points of the No.17

9) Niece Motorsports No.45
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st, 4th, 5th (2), 6th

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 17 points (20th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
      • 41+ points more than the No.7
      • 22+ points more than the No.18
      • 16+ points more than the No.9
      • Be within 13 points of the No.17
      • Be within 39 points of the No.99
      • Be within 52 points of the No.91
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Needs 43 points (2nd place finish + 8 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if the No.99/No.91 wins
    • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if any eligible owner below the No. 91 in points wins

10) TRICON Garage No.17
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd, 4th (3), 6th

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 30 points (7th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 54+ points more than the No.7
      • 36+ points more than the No.18
      • 30+ points more than the No.9
      • 14+ points more than the No.45
      • Be within 25 points of the No.99
      • Be within 38 points of the No.91
      • Be within 43 points of the No.15
      • Be within 47 points of the No.43
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above if the No.99/No.91/No.15/No.43 wins
    • Needs 5 of the scenarios above if any eligible owner below the No. 43 in points wins

11) ThorSport Racing No.99
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 3rd, 5th, 7th (3)

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 40+ points more than the No.45
      • 27+ points more than the No.17
      • Be within 12 points of the No.91
      • Be within 16 points of the No.15
      • Be within 21 points of the No.43
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above if the No.91/No.15/No.43 wins
    • Needs all 5 of the scenarios above if any eligible owner below the No. 43 in points wins

12) McAnally Hilgemann Racing No.91
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 8th, 12th

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 4* of the following scenarios
      • 53+ points more than the No.45
      • 40+ points more than the No.17
      • 14+ points more than the No.99
      • Be within 4 points of the No.15
      • Be within 8 points of the No.43
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Needs 4* of the scenarios above if the No.99/No.15/No.43 wins
    • Needs all 5 of the scenarios above if any eligible owner below the No. 43 in points wins

13) TRICON Garage No.15
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 7th, 8th, 10th (2), 11th

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs all 4* of the following scenarios
      • 44+ points more than the No.17
      • 18+ points more than the No.99
      • 5+ points more than the No.91
      • Be within 8 points of the No.43
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Must Win

14) McAnally Hilgemann Racing  No.43
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd, 6th, 9th (3)

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs all 4* of the following scenarios
      • 49+ points more than the No.17
      • 23+ points more than the No.99
      • 10+ points more than the No.91
      • 5+ points more than the No.15
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Must Win