Clinching Scenarios: Cup Series – Darlington

Last week at Daytona we got to see Harrison Burton and the Wood Brothers No.21 car clinch their way into the playoffs with a win. Now we go to the season finale, Darlington, where there are only 3 spots available in both the Drivers and Owners playoffs. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Playoffs. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Regular Season Points Championship Clinching Scenarios

1) Tyler Reddick
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st (2), 2nd (3)

• • • Needs the following scenario: Needs 44 points (2nd place finish + 9 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs both of the following scenarios
      • Be within 16 points of Kyle Larson
      • Be within 18 points of Chase Elliott

2) Kyle Larson
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st (4)

• • • Needs both of the following scenarios:
      • 17+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • Be within 1 point of Chase Elliott

3) Chase Elliott
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st, 3rd (3)

• • • Needs both of the following scenarios:
      • 19+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 2+ points more than Kyle Larson

Driver Playoff Spot Clinching Scenarios

14) Martin Truex Jr.
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd, 3rd, 4th (2), 7th (2)

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Clinched
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Needs 19 points (18th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1 of the following scenarios
      • Be within 18 points of Ty Gibbs
      • Be within 36 points of Chris Buescher

15) Ty Gibbs
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd, 3rd (4)

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 16 points (21st place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
      • 20+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • Be within 17 points of Chris Buescher
      • Be within 39 points of Bubba Wallace
      • Be within 45 points of Ross Chastain
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Needs 38 points (2nd place finish + 3 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if Wallace/Chastain wins
    • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if any eligible driver below Chastain in points wins

16) Chris Buescher
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd (2), 3rd, 5th (2)

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 34 points (3rd place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
      • 38+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 19+ points more than Ty Gibbs
      • Be within 21 points of Bubba Wallace
      • Be within 27 points of Ross Chastain
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Needs 2* of the scenarios above if Wallace/Chastain wins
    • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if any eligible driver below Chastain in points wins

17) Bubba Wallace
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 4th (2), 5th (3)

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 2* of the following scenarios
      • 40+ points more than Ty Gibbs
      • 22+ points more than Chris Buescher
      • Be within 5 points of Ross Chastain
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Needs 2* of the scenarios above if Chastain wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs all 3 of the scenarios above if any eligible driver below Chastain in points wins

18) Ross Chastain
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 4th, 5th (2), 6th, 7th (2)

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 2* of the following scenarios
      • 46+ points more than Ty Gibbs
      • 28+ points more than Chris Buescher
      • 7+ points more than Bubba Wallace
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Needs 2* of the scenarios above if Wallace wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs all 3 of the scenarios above if any eligible driver below Wallace in points wins

Owner Regular Season Points Championship Clinching Scenarios

1) Hendrick Motorsports No.5
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st (4)

• • • Needs the following scenario: Needs 53 points (2nd place finish + 18 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs both of the following scenarios
      • Be within 7 points of the No.45
      • Be within 25 points of the No.9

2) 23XI Racing No.45
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st (2), 2nd (3)

• • • Needs both of the following scenarios:
      • 8+ points more than the No.5
      • Be within 18 points of the No.9

3) Hendrick Motorsports No.9
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st, 3rd (3)

• • • Needs both of the following scenarios:
      • 26+ points more than the No.5
      • 19+ points more than the No.45

Owner Playoff Spot Clinching Scenarios

14) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd, 3rd, 4th (2), 7th (2)

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Clinched
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Needs 19 points (18th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1 of the following scenarios
      • Be within 18 points of the No.54
      • Be within 36 points of the No.17

15) Joe Gibbs Racing No.54
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd, 3rd (4)

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 16 points (21st place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
      • 20+ points more than the No.19
      • Be within 17 points of the No.17
      • Be within 39 points of the No.23
      • Be within 45 points of the No.1
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Needs 38 points (2nd place finish + 3 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the scenarios above if the No.23/No.1 wins
    • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if any eligible owner below the No.1 in points wins

16) RFK Racing No.17
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd (2), 3rd, 5th (2)

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 34 points (3rd place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
      • 38+ points more than the No.19
      • 19+ points more than the No.54
      • Be within 21 points of the No.23
      • Be within 27 points of the No.1
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Needs 2* of the scenarios above if the No.23/No.1 wins
    • Needs 3 of the scenarios above if any eligible owner below the No.1 in points wins

17) 23XI Racing No.23
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 4th (2), 5th (3)

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 2* of the following scenarios
      • 40+ points more than the No.54
      • 22+ points more than the No.17
      • Be within 5 points of the No.1
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Needs 2* of the scenarios above if the No.1 wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs all 3 of the scenarios above if any eligible owner below the No.1 in points wins

18) Trackhouse Racing No.1
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 4th, 5th (2), 6th, 7th (2)

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 2* of the following scenarios
      • 46+ points more than the No.54
      • 28+ points more than the No.17
      • 7+ points more than the No.23
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Needs 2* of the scenarios above if the No.23 wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs all 3 of the scenarios above if any eligible owner below the No.23 in points wins