Time to go back to where the season started: Daytona. Usually, the Coke Zero Sugar 400 would be the regular season finale. However, the Olympic break pushed the finale to Darlington instead. Now, the summer Daytona race marks the second to last of the regular season. Although it is not the finale, Daytona still represents the final opportunity for many outside the playoff picture to win their way into the playoffs. Darlington usually does not offer surprise winners. So that leaves Daytona as the final wild card before the playoffs kick off. With a full 40-car field, will there be a new winner to upset the playoff picture? Will one of the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch win the Coke Zero Sugar 400?
Both the cutline and regular season champion battles are being contested by 4 drivers a piece. For the cutline, Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, Ross Chastain, and Bubba Wallace enter Daytona only separated by 39 points. The ever-chaotic Daytona could further put a twist into the cutline battle, as Michigan turned into a mess for three of these drivers. Meanwhile, the regular season championship boils down between Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson. Larson, who sits fourth, only trails Reddick by 32 points. Not only could the Coke Zero Sugar 400 introduce a new winner into the fold, it can alter these points battles drastically heading into the final race of the regular season. Along with the playoff implications, what other storylines and drivers will be worth keeping an eye on this weekend?
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Chase Elliott
Currently sitting second in points, Chase Elliott will look to use Daytona as a booster for his regular season championship aspirations. Although he lacks a Daytona win, Elliott has proven his merits as a drafting driver. Between Atlanta and Talladega, the 9 driver has racked up 3 wins while working the draft. 2 of those wins have come during the NextGen era, so the talent has translated from the old car to this one. Similar to numerous drivers in the field, that elusive Daytona win has avoided Elliott thus far. Arguably, his best shout at a Daytona win came during the 2021 Daytona 500.
Without a win, Chase Elliott has gathered a nice resume at Daytona. Obviously, an average finish of 20.5 is nothing to be impressed by, but a lot of that comes down to bad luck. When Elliott manages to avoid the carnage, he is a consistent Top-10 machine. In races where he finishes on the lead lap, Elliott’s average finish jumps to 10.1 in 7 starts. His luck has been more favorable in the NextGen era as well. In 5 Daytona starts, Elliott has 3 Top-15s finishes with 46 laps led. With that moderate success in Florida, could Chase Elliott pick up his first Daytona win Saturday night? If not the win, then maybe he can gather enough points to leave Daytona with the points lead.
Chris Buescher
After recovering from what could have been a disastrous Michigan, Chris Buescher heads to a type of racing that clearly suits him. Especially at Daytona, Buescher is well regarded in the draft. The most recent trip for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 resulted in the 17 car visiting victory lane. Could there be a repeat in the books for the RFK driver? A driver has not repeated a Daytona win since Denny Hamlin won back-to-back Daytona 500s in 2019 and 2020. For the 400, you have to go back to 2006 when Tony Stewart pulled the feat off.
While going for the win should always be in the game plan, Chris Buescher will have to keep his points situation in mind throughout the race. Buescher sits 16 points above the cutline, with Ross Chastain serving as his one driver buffer if there is a new winner. The balance Buescher will have to play is whether to run for stage points or not. Most accidents at Daytona lately seem to revolve around coming to the end of a stage. Would it be worth the extra points at the risk getting caught up in a wreck? It depends on how the other bubble drivers play it as well. Look for Chris Buescher to attempt to repeat while maximizing his points output Saturday night.
Martin Truex Jr
Somehow, Martin Truex has gone through his entire career without picking up a drafting track win. For how good Truex is in the draft, it is shocking that he has not found his way to victory lane at Daytona or Talladega. The closest he came was during the 2016 Daytona 500 when Denny Hamlin barely beat him to the line. As Truex has announced his fulltime retirement, he only has 3 races left to win on a superspeedway (as a fulltime driver). Yes, he almost certainly will be attempting the Daytona 500 next year. Still, getting that win in his last fulltime season would be special.
As for Truex’s playoff situation, he is fairly safe from missing out. Sitting 77 points above the cutline (and 38 above Ty Gibbs), it would take something drastic to happen to knock him out. That should imply that the focus would be to pick up that elusive win. Not since Jeff Gordon has a driver won in their retirement season. Based on the speed Truex has featured this season, he certainly has the capability to pull it off. Plus, a win this weekend in Daytona might help suppress some demons from last year. Remember, Truex coasted after clinching the regular season championship during the Coke Zero Sugar 400. After that, his playoff run was a disaster that saw him barely scratch by the first two rounds.
Austin Cindric
Officially, Austin Cindric is locked into the playoffs via his win at Gateway. There can only be a maximum of 15 new winners and the regular season champion will a race winner. Thus, Cindric has nothing to race for entering this weekend other than gathering playoff points. The best chance for that will be Daytona, as Cindric has already picked up two stages wins this year at Atlanta and Talladega. As per the usual arrangement, expect Cindric to be ultra-aggressive in getting to the front. Who remembers his four-wide move to snag the lead in Atlanta this spring?
What Austin Cindric might have to contend with this weekend is a bit of cold streak he was built up at Daytona. After three straight Top-15s to start his Daytona career (plus a Daytona 500 win), Cindric has not finished inside the Top-20 in his past 3 Daytona starts. None of those starts have been on the lead lap, with two being the result of a DNF. Plus, Cindric has not found the front as much as he did earlier in his career. Only 13 laps led since finishing third in the 2022 Coke Zero Sugar 400. Can Austin Cindric turn around his Daytona luck this weekend to get an edge for the playoffs?
Austin Hill
For the second time this season, Richard Childress Racing will be entering their 33 car into a Cup Series race. This time, Austin Hill will be behind the wheel. Hill, a superspeedway expert in the Xfinity Series, will look to pick up his first Cup Top-10. In 3 previous superspeedway Cup starts, Hill has averaged a 25th place finish. Granted, his best career Cup finish (14th) came in this race last year. Also, all of those superspeedway starts were with Beard Motorsports rather than RCR. This will be Hill’s first RCR superspeedway start.
What can fans expect from Austin Hill in the Coke Zero Sugar 400? If you base it off his limited Cup career thus far, not much. Hill has not translated well to the NextGen, which might be cause for concern for his future prospects. That said, superspeedway racing is a different beast compared to Michigan, the ROVAL, and Texas. Hill has proven great skill in the draft during his Xfinity Series tenure. There have been some bright spots during his Cup superspeedway starts. The big question will be if other drivers (outside of RCR) will be willing to draft with him. If that is the case, then Hill could be a longshot bet to pull the upset this weekend.
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