Welcome back NASCAR! After two weekends off, the NASCAR Cup Series returns for the final stretch of the regular season. Kicking off this 4-race stretch is Richmond Raceway. For the first time this season, the Cup Series will return to a track where the series already competed. In the spring, Denny Hamlin emerged victorious over Martin Truex Jr on the final restart. However, it was a race dominated by Kyle Larson and Truex. Will that trio find their way to the front this weekend? Are they going to be featured in this week’s Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch?
While the playoffs will have a share of the focus, the main topic of discussion this weekend will be tires. For the first time in a points paying race, NASCAR will offer the teams two different types of tires. Much like the All-Star Race, teams will have the option to put on the regular tire or a softer tire. In theory, this should at least make the strategy play more interesting. However, there is doubt that this will do much to impact the overall entertainment of the race. To be honest, the best part of Richmond recently has been the tire falloff and the various strategies surrounding it. If NASCAR truly wanted to make Richmond better, they should hose it down before the race starts. Still, how will this option tire factor into the race? Will it help or hurt the 5 Drivers to Watch?
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Ross Chastain
What a weird season it has been for Ross Chastain. By the numbers, it has been a clear stepdown from Chastain’s first two seasons with Trackhouse Racing. Through 22 races, Chastain has only racked up 2 Top-5s and 7 Top-10s. The number of laps he has led is down drastically, on pace to fall quite short of 600. Returning from the Olympic break, Chastain now sits on the cutline by 7 points above Bubba Wallace. Who would have thought that Daniel Suarez would be the Trackhouse driver sitting pretty in the playoffs while Chastain struggles to make it?
Recent poor results have tanked Chastain’s points position. Now, a couple of new winners from behind Chastain in points have not helped. Still, Chastain went from a comfortable position to the cutline over the past 4 weeks. 2 of those poor results were DNFs, one at Nashville where he was on pace to at least finish Top-5. In this precarious points predicament, Chastain needs a strong run at Richmond to start his final push for the playoffs.
Richmond has been a bit of mixed bag for Chastain. While he has flashed speed there during his Trackhouse tenure, that has only netted him a single Top-5. However, all but one of his starts have come inside the Top-10. If Chastain is to bring that qualifying speed, he will need to maintain it throughout the race. With every point being important, look for Chastain to be aggressive in maintaining track position and maybe going for the win.
Josh Berry
Short tracks and Josh Berry have been a solid combination this season. Also, damp weather tires have been kind to the 4 driver as well. In the spring, Berry impressed at Richmond will his ability to manage the damp weather tires. After starting 30th, Berry managed to knife his way through the field to pick up points in Stage 1. Even with the damp tires off, Berry continued to impress as he finished Stage 2 second. Although he slipped out of the of the Top-10 by race’s end, the performance was better than the result.
Heading into this weekend’s event, Josh Berry is needing a rebound race. After scoring back-to-back Top-10s at Iowa and New Hampshire, Berry entered the Olympic break with 4 straight finishes 20th or worse. Now, Berry has been in must win territory for the playoffs for a bit now. With that firmly stamped, the 4 team can go all out for a win at Berry’s best track before the playoffs. Outside of Martinsville, Berry has flashed Top-10 speed at every short track this season. Not only that, but he has led laps at each non-Martinsville short track. While driving for a team that will not exist next year, it would be fitting to see Berry and Childers pick up a win. Watch out for Josh Berry to play upset in the Cook Out 400.
Tyler Reddick
Despite not racking up the wins, Tyler Reddick has been quietly putting together his best season in his young Cup career. Through 22 races, Reddick is one Top-5/10 shy of matching his career high. Currently, Reddick sits 15 points behind Kyle Larson for the points lead. What has ailed the 45 team previously has been absent this season. The mistakes have been kept to a minimum, with the most glaring ones being hiccups while going for the win on the last lap. Leading into the Olympic break, Reddick could have 2-3 wins under his belt. Most notably, Nashville and Chicago where Reddcik was clearly the faster car but could not navigate his way around the leader.
With the regular season title still in reach, Reddick will look to continue his pre-break hot streak. Over the past 9 races, Reddick has only finished worse than 8th once (Iowa). Of those 8 Top-10s, half of them were Top-5s. For Reddick, he is hoping that the break did not disrupt his momentum. Unfortunately for Reddick, Richmond is not one of his better tracks. This spring’s Richmond race was the first time in his career that he finished inside the Top-10. While his average finish of 16.4 is not horrible, a mid-pick finish will not help his chase for the points lead. With his teammate (Bubba Wallace) usually running well at Richmond, maybe Reddick can receive some aid in boosting his performance this weekend.
Justin Haley
Some of Justin Haley’s best runs on the season have come on short tracks or flat tracks. Although the spring race at Richmond only netted Haley a 30th place finish, other results from Bristol, Iowa, and New Hampshire give more hope to the driver of the 51. Those tracks have seen impressive runs out of the Rick Ware Racing entry. Plus, Haley managed to drive from 16th to 4th in the All-Star Open at North Wilkesboro. The big question is whether his quality short track runs are more of an indication of Richmond than his previous race at Richmond.
Along with the race weekend, Justin Haley’s name is stirring again in the silly season rumor mill. Although he already made a vote of confidence in remaining with Rick Ware Racing, the surprising firing of Corey LaJoie might open the door to a Spire Motorsports reunion. Spire gave Haley his first shout in the Cup Series, which led to a rain-shortened win at Daytona. While the Wood Brothers might not have enticed Haley to leave RWR, maybe a reunion with his original Cup team could. Haley’s impressive season could bring visions of a tantalizing pairing with Rodney Childers. While no news will likely drop this weekend, Justin Haley will be one to watch regardless.
Corey LaJoie
There is little doubt that Corey LaJoie had the worst Olympic break of the Cup Series drivers. Only Adam Stevens might have an argument due to his injury. It was announced during the off-time that, LaJoie announced that he would not be returning to Spire Motorsports for 2025. Despite being announced as Rodney Childers’ driver in a press release, the 7 car will have a new driver at the helm starting next season. Meanwhile, LaJoie will enter silly season with most Cup seats already accounted for. That is a rough deal.
LaJoie’s firing should light a fire under him to help find a ride for 2025. While a lower series ride seems inevitable, maybe LaJoie can salvage a Cup seat for next season with quality runs over the next few weeks. However, Richmond Raceway might not be the best track to start that endeavor. In 13 starts, LaJoie has finished no better than 21st. The spring race saw LaJoie finish last on track as well. Granted, his Spire teammates did not fair much better as Zane Smith finished one spot ahead and Carson Hocevar had a 27th place result. For this weekend’s race, LaJoie at the very least will need to surpass his Spire teammates to better himself for his career.
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