It has certainly been a busy week for those who follow the NASCAR Cup Series. After the chaotic finish to the Cook Out 400, conversation about what NASCAR should do over Austin Dillon’s actions filled the airways through Wednesday. Then, Wednesday afternoon saw the release of the penalty report. On it, Dillon was able to keep his win, but it is now an unencumbered win. This means that Dillon is not eligible for the playoffs via his Cook Out 400 win. Plus, he was docked 25 points and his spotter, Brandon Benesch, for 3 races. Joey Logano was also fined $50,000 for his pit road antics. Also, Kaulig Racing announced that AJ Allmendinger will return to the 16 car fulltime for 2025. What a whirlwind of a week. All of that before getting the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the FireKeepers Casino 400.
Heading into this weekend, the Cup Series only has 3 races left of the regular season. After the Dillon penalty (and assuming it is upheld upon appeal), there are 4 spots for the playoffs still up for grabs. While Martin Truex Jr is likely safe from the cutline, four drivers remain within 18 points of each other. While there will be a significant portion of focus on those four drivers, the battle for the regular season championship is a tightly contest one. The top three in points are only separated by 6 points. Imagine how much more exciting the championship battle would be if it were a season long championship instead of the playoffs. Anyway, will any of the drivers in those point battles find their way into the 5 Drivers to Watch?
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Austin Dillon
Arguably, there will be no one more watched this weekend than Austin Dillon. At least before the green flag drops. Dillon’s Richmond performance will be forever overshadowed by the overtime restart and last lap antics. Prior to Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Ryan Preece bringing out the only natural caution of the race, Dillon and the 3 team were having a phenomenal weekend. Fastest in practice, a sixth place qualifying effort, and a car that truly came alive in the final stage. On equal tires, Dillon managed to catch and pass Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin to gain the race lead. If not for the messy ending, it would have been a great underdog story for NASCAR.
Alas, the current history is the one that exists. Although there is an appeal that will be heard, Austin Dillon and the 3 team will have to shift their focus to Michigan. Michigan has been a mixed bag of a track for Dillon. In 20 starts, Dillon owns 2 Top-5s and 5 Top-10s with an average finish of 17.4. While far from impressive, Dillon sprinkles in solid runs among the mediocre performances. Based on the pre-Richmond season, there would be little expectation for Dillon entering Michigan. However, the team managed to find race winning speed last weekend. Who is to say that the same cannot be repeated for the FireKeepers Casino 400? For the 3 team’s sake, hopefully Richmond was not a one off performance.
Erik Jones
Another piece of news from this week was the announcement of Erik Jones signing a multi-year extension to remain with Legacy Motor Club. There was little noise about Jones potentially leaving the team, with only the newly opened Spire Motorsports 7 car with Rodney Childers as the most alluring opportunity. The status quo was maintained, as Jones reups to remain the driver of the historic 43 car. With no silly season distractions, Jones will look to turn his season around. Through 21 races, Jones has a single Top-10, which came in the season opening Daytona 500. To put it plainly, it has not been a good year for Erik Jones.
With that said, Jones will be returning to his home state where he has found success in the 43 car. In 3 starts with Legacy Motor Club, Jones’ worst finish is 18th in the previous generation of car. Since the inception of the NextGen, Jones has collected 2 Top-10s at his home track. Even with the struggles at Legacy Motor Club, the longer intermediates have been kind to Jones. Somehow, the 43 team has managed to find Top-10 speed over the past two seasons. Outside of the history, there is nothing on paper to indicate that Jones will have a breakthrough run though. Still, the extra motivation to perform in front of the hometown fans cannot hurt. Last week saw an improbable winner. Could Erik Jones play spoiler this weekend at Michigan International Speedway?
Ryan Blaney
Michigan International Speedway has been quite friendly to Ryan Blaney, especially during his (official) Team Penske tenure. Since taking over the 12, Blaney has only 2 results outside the Top-10 with one being a DNF in 2020. Along with an average finish of 11.4, Blaney has collected 4 Top-5s along with his 2021 win. With the mid-season resurgence of Ford, Blaney should be a favorite to win this weekend. His track record certainly supports that claim, even considering the NextGen. A 5th and 9th place finish over the past two seasons demonstrates that Blaney has not skipped a beat at Michigan.
At this point in the season, all that Ryan Blaney can do to truly improve his playoff chances is to rack up playoff points. He sits too far behind the Top-3 in order to contend for the regular season championship. However, Blaney currently sits with 12 playoffs points. If the playoffs were to start this weekend, he would be ranked 5th. Collecting some stage wins and a race win this weekend is definitely in the cards. As with almost any race in the NextGen era, qualifying on Saturday will be vitally important for getting those playoffs points. If Blaney unloads quick, he might be the Ford to beat in the FireKeepers Casino 400.
Bubba Wallace
Both of the 23XI Racing drivers did not miss a beat returning from the Olympic break. Tyler Reddick has risen to second in the points standings, as well as the number one spot in the FitStop Performance Power Rankings. Meanwhile, Bubba Wallace has clawed back from a points deficit to currently sit above the cutline for the playoffs. While that margin is only 3 points, it has been impressive to watch Wallace erase the 40+ point deficit he faced a few weeks ago. Coming off back-to-back Top-5s, Michigan is another track where Wallace is expected to succeed.
Two years ago, Wallace finished second in the Michigan race. Last year, Wallace looked strong early and led 21 laps. Between the past two Michigan races, Wallace has led 43 laps along with picking up 16 stage points. With how well the 23 has been running recently, it would not be surprising to see Wallace run Top-5 this weekend. He qualified on pole in 2022, yet his intermediate qualifying efforts this season have left some spots on the table.
Perhaps the most intriguing question to ponder about Wallace is if going from the chaser to the chased will impact him. Wallace, who has openly admitted about pressure getting to him, has expectations to remain in the playoffs. A 3 point margin is tough to maintain and Wallace has demonstrated some immaturity this season (i.e. Chicago). If the results remain positive, then it should not be an issue. However, what happens if a mistake occurs on track or on pit road?
Daniel Suarez
Prior to the Cook Out 400, Daniel Suarez locked up his silly season status by signing the long awaited extension with Trackhouse Racing. While surely happy to have security for next season, the one year extension comes off as a “prove it” deal as Trackhouse’s full lineup continues to be a pressure cooker. In response to the extension, Suarez went out and had his best race of 2024. Being the first team to use the option tires, Suarez flew through the field and captured the lead during Stage 2. With that strategy, Suarez maintained that track position throughout the end of the race. Suarez was the only driver who had a chance of tracking down Austin Dillon in the closing laps, as he had the option tire.
Heading into Michigan, Daniel Suarez is coming off a Top-10 at this track last year. In his career, Michigan has been a struggle for Suarez. His average finish is barely inside the Top-20 (19.5), with most of that success coming during his Joe Gibbs Racing days. Since joining Trackhouse, Suarez continued his struggles outside of last year’s Top-10. Maybe the team figured something out that can be applied to this weekend. When you look at the 99 this season, his highlights have been on the intermediates. So there is a legitimate chance that Suarez can continue building momentum for his playoff run this weekend. Suarez might not be a race winner, but he will be worthy of keeping an eye on to see how well he can perform in the FireKeepers Casino 400.
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