It all comes down to this, well at least for the regular season. After 25 races, the NASCAR Cup Series regular season ends with the final crown jewel of 2024. The Southern 500 will host this year’s finale, where two separate points battles will be settled. At the top of the standings, the regular season title is still in play for three drivers. Meanwhile, the cutline looks to be down to five drivers for three spots. Of course, a new winner could meddle things further. Put the playoffs to the side, everyone in the field wants to win this race. Will any of the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the Southern 500 be the one to hoist the trophy?
Last week, Harrison Burton upset the playoff apple cart with his surprise win in the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Eliminating one of the remaining playoff spots, it moved the cutline from the battle between Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace to under Chris Buescher. The point separation is 21 points entering Sunday. While that is no small margin to overcome for Wallace, stage points could turn out to be very valuable. If Wallace scores a high amount while Buescher does not, the race for that final spot becomes very interesting in the final stage. Alternatively, Buescher could help ease his stress by scoring points and improving the distance between him and Wallace. Although they are not ones to watch this week, all eyes (especially due to NBC) will be fixated on that cutline battle.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Kyle Busch
The first driver in points who cannot point their way in is Kyle Busch. He currently sits 106 points outside the cutline. After nearly grabbing the win in Daytona, Busch will look to lock his spot into the playoffs at one of his better tracks. Granted, Busch has gone on record to state that he is less worried about making the playoffs. For him, the more important piece of this equation is continuing his season-win streak. If Busch is able to nab a win this year, it would extend the streak to 20 seasons. That is Busch’s top priority. The playoff birth is an added bonus.
Could the Southern 500 be home to Busch’s first win of 2024? Potentially. However, the recent results have been less than stellar. In the NextGen ear, Busch has only one Top-10. That said, 2022 saw Busch lead a combined 174 laps before a wreck and engine issue took him out of the race. Busch is capable of running well at Darlington, the luck has seemingly left him at the Lady in Black though.
Since the Olympic break has ended, Richard Childress Racing has looked vastly improved. Austin Dillon obviously looked strong at Richmond, but Busch has put together back-to-back weeks with fast race cars. It would not be surprising to see the 8 car unload with great speed this weekend. That said, the alternative would be as true.
Harrison Burton
Despite the gripes that deservedly come with the playoff ramifications of Harrison Burton’s win last Saturday, it was fantastic to see that 21 car back in victory lane. What a moment for the Wood Brothers, Burton, and NASCAR. It was a feel good win that everyone could get behind.
Now, will there be better performances coming from Harrison Burton now that he is a playoff driver? There is no mystery as to how the playoff drivers usually exceed their regular season standards come the playoffs. Will Burton experience that same bump? For Burton, there is not much of a better place to follow up his Daytona win than Darlington. Statistically, it is his best track.
Where Harrison Burton has impressed in his limited Cup experience is Darlington Raceway. Through 5 starts, Burton has collected a Top-10 along with an average finish of 17.5. Most notably, all but one of the races Burton has finished saw him on the lead lap. For someone who has struggled as much as Burton, that is great. Now, no one is going to expect Burton to roll out on Sunday and compete for another win. But, he could flash Top-10 speed that could serve as a boost of confidence heading into the playoffs.
Ty Gibbs
After three straight races of finishing outside the Top-20, Ty Gibbs has bounced back for back-to-back Top-5s. With his playoff hopes hanging in the balance, Gibbs might have found the consistency that propelled him early this season. Heading into this weekend, Gibbs sits 39 points above the cutline and 18 points ahead of Chris Buescher. Barring a catastrophe early in the Southern 500, Gibbs should be fairly safe to point his way in if there is no new winner. Even if there is a new winner, Buescher will have to put together a strong race while Gibbs struggles.
Surely there will be pressure on Gibbs’ shoulders to make the playoffs. While having that one driver and a decent points buffer, there is little chance that Gibbs is not having some qualms heading into Darlington. Granted, he did put together a great race during throwback weekend. He ran Top-5 for the entire race while leading 34 laps. Picking up the second place finish, Gibbs should bank on that race for confidence this weekend. Prior to that race, Gibbs’ Darlington career had been a bit mediocre. As long as Gibbs can remain in the Top-20, he should be one of the 16 drivers in the playoffs come Atlanta. However, those pesky Toyota engines seem to have been hurting him the most. Something to watch for this weekend.
Kaz Grala
It has been a minute since Kaz Grala drove the 15 Rick Ware Racing entry. His last start came at Chicago, missing the past 5 races as Cody Ware and Riley Herbst have received those starts. Now, Grala returns to the track that saw his best non-superspeedway result. In the spring, Grala piloted the 15 car to an 18th place finish. Meanwhile, teammate Justin Haley brought Rick Ware Racing their first Top-10 outside of the drafting tracks. Based on those performances, there is no reason to not expect similar results.
Kaz Grala has been the steady hand of the 15 team. While Cody Ware did pick up the organization’s best finish at Daytona, Grala has been the most impressive driver between the three. With a chaotic silly season in full swing, Grala surely is auditioning for a ride with every start he receives. The more he can impress, the better the opportunities might be granted to hm. If you are looking for an underdog driver to watch this weekend, it would be Kaz Grala. In every race of attrition that he has started this season, Grala has put that 15 car within the Top-20 based on speed.
Carson Hocevar
Rounding out the 5 Drivers to Watch will be Carson Hocevar. Despite a strong lower series record at Darlington, the Lady in Black was not kind to Hocevar in his Cup debut at the track. Hocevar brought the 77 Spire Motorsports entry home in 26th. However, that driver from the spring could prove to be vastly different from the driver who will run in his first Southern 500. Over the past 11 races, Hocevar has finished inside the Top-20 in all but one. His average finish during this stretch is 14.0.
In recent weeks, Hocevar is maintaining a Top-15 finishing position. Starting with the Brickyard 400, Hocevar has not finished worse than 12th in his last 4 races. The run that Hocevar has been on is impressive, especially considering how much he is outrunning his Spire teammates. Now that he has momentum behind him, perhaps this trip to Darlington will net Hocevar a better result. As mentioned, he has done well at the track in the Craftsman Truck and Xfinity Series. While it would be a longshot bet, it would not be inconceivable to see Hocevar pull out a strong Top-5 run this weekend.
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