2024 silly season might go down as one of the most chaotic in NASCAR history. The chaos continued this week as the Haas Factory Team announced their Xfinity Series lineup. Prior to the Cabo Wabo 250, Haas Factory Team revealed that Sheldon Creed and Sam Mayer would be driving the 00 and 41 (replacing the 98). Both drivers are swapping manufacturers to run with Ford’s top Xfinity team. Creed will be driving for his third manufacturer in as many years, leaving Toyota. Meanwhile, Mayer will be making the swap from Chevy. Assumedly, both drivers feel that this move will better their chances to move up to the Cup Series compared to their former teams. As the odd driver out, Riley Herbst will be racing elsewhere in 2025.
Sheldon Creed and Sam Mayer to drive Xfinity full time for Haas Factory Team next year — 00-Creed, 41-Mayer (won’t use the 98). pic.twitter.com/wifLUyrZid
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) August 17, 2024
Usually, Xfinity silly seasons moves do not have a great impact on the Cup Series. Often, Xfinity (and Truck) Series moves are after the majority of the Cup seats are already filled. Maybe a few of the lesser Cup teams will have seats available when top Xfinity teams start filling seats. However, this year is different. There are some coveted Cup seats that are still available while three potential candidates were part of Saturday’s announcement. While Sheldon Creed was an outside shot at any Cup ride, Sam Mayer and Riley Herbst have been essentially penciled into seats. Now, one is off the market while the other might reap the benefits of that.
Sam Mayer Not to Cup
After Noah Gragson was officially announced as Front Row Motorsports’ second driver, there were a flurry of rumors that Sam Mayer was going to be their third. Bob Pockrass linked Mayer to the third ride, stating he was expected to be heading to the Ford team. Additionally, Mayer had been linked to Kaulig’s 16 car (now filled by AJ Allmendinger) and the newly available Spire 7 team. Outside of Cole Custer, Sam Mayer seemed to be the most notable Xfinity Series driver to make the move to Cup. He was tied to 3 different seats at some point, even hitting levels of “expected” movement. Yet, Mayer remains in the Xfinity Series for at least one more season.
Outside of the silly season rumors, Mayer’s own comments about his Cup aspirations make this move a bit surprising. After winning the Hy Vee Perks 250 at Iowa, the JR Motorsports driver said it “makes me so mad” that his name was lacking from Cup consideration. Clearly feeling deserving of a ride in the top series, the heightened rumors of Mayer’s ascension seemed to point to him in Cup next season. Not only is Mayer staying in Xfinity, but he is switching to a new team.
Now that Mayer is off the market, attention will turn to piecing together who slots into the remaining open Cup rides. While more Xfinity (and Truck) Series silly season announcements might come, it is doubtful they will have any significant impact on the Cup situation. However, Mayer coming off the board and taking away Riley Herbst’s Xfinity seat has ramifications for the open Cup seats.
Third Front Row Entry
During the Noah Gragson announcement, Front Row owner Bob Jenkins stated that all three drivers for 2025 would be young, but experienced. Granted, that “experienced” comment was not clarified as Cup or NASCAR in general. Still, the feeling from that conference was that the third driver would come with Cup seat time. Plus, it sounded as if Front Row already knew who the third driver was back in July. With Mayer heading to the Haas Factory Team, it appears the JR Motorsports driver was not the man being discussed by Jenkins.
Looking at the pool of candidates for that third Front Row seat, there are two names that stick out based on media reporting and notes from the conference. A popular name in the rumor mill is Zane Smith. Smith would check off both boxes that Jenkins said: young and Cup experience. While plausible, it seems a bit farfetched that Trackhouse would give up on Smith this quickly. In the past 9 races, Smith has been running better than his disastrous start to 2024. Still nothing impressive, progression with 5 Top-20s int he past 9 races is good to see. It certainly feels that the reports are trying to make this dog hunt.
On one hand, Trackhouse is loaded with Cup ready drivers already. Barring a surprise, they will enter 2025 with at most 3 charters. Daniel Suarez and Ross Chastain are already signed. Shane van Gisbergen could be deemed Cup ready. Spire looks to be filling out their lineup with their own drivers. The longer silly season goes on, the more it seems that Trackhouse will be one ride short. At this point, picking SVG over Smith feels logical. Yet, Smith is young and Suarez is on a one-year “prove it” deal. Would it be right to let Smith walk? Although it was not be surprising, Smith leaving Trackhouse to head back to Front Row does not seem right.
Who Else Fills the Criteria?
If the assumption is that Jenkins meant Cup experience, then that would eliminate Riley Herbst from contention. One could argue Herbst’s spot starts with Front Row and Rick Ware Racing could count as experience, but it would be a stretch. Outside of Zane Smith, who else would be young and has run a significant portion of the Cup schedule (or will be end of 2024)? Based on that criteria, Kaz Grala lines up well.
Could this be the writer trying to force a square shape into a round hole? Maybe, as the silly season predictions did have Grala going to Front Row. However, the available information does add up to this being a sensible pick. Grala will enter the 2025 season 26 years old. Through this writing, he has racked up 23 starts in the Cup Series across 4 seasons. Plus, he has made the Daytona 500 each of the past 3 seasons. That includes this year for Front Row Motorsports in their 36 entry. Considering the financial aspect, Grala has strong support from Island Brands USA. However, they are not able to sponsor Grala’s 15 Cup car due to Rick Ware Racing’s policy against alcoholic sponsors. Surely, they are itching to get their brand back on their driver’s car.
Grala has done well in the 15 car for Rick Ware Racing. He has picked up 3 Top-20s, 2 at drivers’ tracks (Bristol and Darlington). His average finish of 26.8 is better than the 28.8 that Cody Ware and Riley Herbst have done in the same car. The eye test also lends itself to feeling Grala gets more out of the car than Herbst or Ware.
Would Kaz Grala be a flashy move? No, but it would continue this youth movement Front Row is rolling with. As seen by his RWR tenure, Grala is a driver who gets the most out of his equipment. Look at how poorly Sam Hunt Racing is doing this year compared to their moderate success with Grala last year.
One More Name
Technically, there is one more driver who would align with the known criteria of what it seems Front Row is factoring into their decision: Harrison Burton. Burton is young (turns 24 in October), will have 3 years of Cup experience at season’s end, and brings his own sponsorship with DEX. If not for how poorly his Cup career has gone thus far, Burton might be the obvious pick for Front Row. That said, the lack of progression seen from Burton in a Penske-adjacent car might be too concerning to give him another Cup ride right now. The smart move for Burton would be to rebuild his reputation by taking a top Xfinity or Truck ride (if able) rather than remain in Cup.
Spire’s #7
Unlike Front Row’s third entry, Sam Mayer was not heavily rumored to be heading to Spire Motorsports. His name did come up as a potential candidate for the ride, but the assumption remained Mayer would be Front Row bound. Still, Mayer no longer being an option does add intrigue to the hast in which Spire might announce/sign their next driver. Jordan Bianchi reported after the Olympic break that Justin Haley is the “leading contender” for the 7 car. Also, he mentioned that there was another Cup driver in the conversation who was not named.
Jordan Bianchi fills us in on the current prospects that could land in the No. 7 for 2025. 🍿 pic.twitter.com/v5vDWBZ0mH
— Dirty Mo Media (@DirtyMoMedia) August 9, 2024
By all accounts, it seems that an active Cup driver will be replacing Corey LaJoie and pairing up with Rodney Childers for 2025. Haley is a sensible pick for Spire. Not only does he own Spire’s first (and only) Cup win, but he has been impressing while driving for Rick Ware. The only question is whether Haley’s commitment to RWR can be undone by Spire.
With Erik Jones signing an extension to remain with Legacy Motor Club, the only other notable Cup driver who could not be mentioned is Kyle Busch. It would also make sense why Bianchi would not feel comfortable disclosing his name during the podcast. Busch to Spire would be a huge move, despite how poorly the former champion’s season is going. There is already a working relationship established, as Busch drove the 7 Spire truck 5 times this season. If Busch is truly unhappy enough to attempt to break ties with Richard Childress Racing, Spire would be a cushy rebound.
Whether it is Haley or Busch, either are a suitable upgrade from LaJoie.
The Riley Herbst of it All
As mentioned before, the lack of Riley Herbst in this announcement clearly puts the young driver on the move. Although he was rumored to be Cup bound anyway, this all but confirms it. However, it also seemingly confirms that Herbst will remain a Ford driver. With Sam Mayer not going to Front Row or Spire, that could take away a driver from a different team. Specifically, Haley heading to drive the 7. If Haley leaves Rick Ware Racing, it would be tough to imagine RWR or Ford allowing Herbst to jump ship to a different manufacturer. Losing one young driver to a different manufacturer is one thing, but two might be too far.
Even if Haley remains at Rick Ware Racing, Herbst could easily slot into the second RWR car (especially if Grala leaves). If not heading to RWR, then Herbst could be someone tabbed for the last Front Row Motorsports car. Jenkins could have been discussing NASCAR experience (or he thinks a handful of starts in Cup counts). Herbst has made multiple start for Front Row in the past, so the transition would be seamless.
Whether it is Front Row or Rick Ware, a Ford Cup team looks to be Herbst’s home for 2025. There have been plenty of rumors about Herbst heading to a third 23XI Racing team. That move would unite all Monster energy drivers under the same manufacturer. That could still be the move, but a potential loss of Justin Haley might force Ford to hang onto to Herbst.
