This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Fall Daytona race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Daytona (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 34th
Last weeks winner: Tyler Reddick
Projected Finish: 6th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Erik Jones 16th)
-13 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the 36 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15
Notes from all point race projections this year (24 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 40 of 898, 4.45%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 380 of 898, 42.32%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 352 of 898, 39.20%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 24, 12.50%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 118 of 240, 49.17%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Busch
One to Watch: Bubba Wallace
Disappointment: Austin Dillon
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 2nd -1 |
| 2. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 24th -22 |
| 3. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 36th -33 |
| 4. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 6th -2 |
| 5. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 16th -11 |
| 6. | 22 | Joey Logano | 31st -25 |
| 7. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 18th -11 |
| 8. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 10th -2 |
| 9. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 34th -25 |
| 10. | 24 | William Byron | 27th -17 |
| 11. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 12th -1 |
| 12. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 29th -17 |
| 13. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 8th +5 |
| 14. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 9th +5 |
| 15. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 33rd -18 |
| 16. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 14th +2 |
| 17. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 21st -4 |
| 18. | 33 | Austin Hill | 25th -7 |
| 19. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 40th -21 |
| 20. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 5th +15 |
| 21. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 30th -9 |
| 22. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 23rd -1 |
| 23. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 37th -14 |
| 24. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 28th -4 |
| 25. | 22 | Joey Logano | 31st -6 |
| 26. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 3rd +23 |
| 27. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 15th +12 |
| 28. | 43 | Erik Jones | 17th +11 |
| 29. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 1st +28 |
| 30. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 38th -8 |
| 31. | 62 | Parker Retzlaff | 7th +24 |
| 32. | 44 | Joey Gase | 20th +12 |
| 33. | 71 | Zane Smith | 13th +20 |
| 34. | 15 | Cody Ware | 4th +30 |
| 35. | 16 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 35th +0 |
| 36. | 4 | Josh Berry | 26th +10 |
| 37. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 19th +18 |
| 38. | 51 | Justin Haley | 32nd +6 |
| 39. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 22nd +17 |
| 40. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 11th +29 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
