Statistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Daytona

This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Fall Daytona race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Daytona (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Kyle Larson
Finished: 34th
Last weeks winner: Tyler Reddick
Projected Finish: 6th

Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Erik Jones 16th)
-13 of the 36 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-18 of the 36 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-7 of the 36 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15

Notes from all point race projections this year (24 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 40 of 898, 4.45%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 380 of 898, 42.32%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 352 of 898, 39.20%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 24, 12.50%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 118 of 240, 49.17%

Notable results this week

Winner: Kyle Busch
One to Watch: Bubba Wallace
Disappointment: Austin Dillon

The only time Kyle Busch won a Cup points race at Daytona was way back in 2008, but the stats say he’ll do so again this weekend. Photo by Chris Graythen — Getty Images

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.