This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Michigan race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Michigan (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Martin Truex Jr.
Finished: 37th (last)
Last weeks winner: Austin Dillon
Projected Finish: 18th
Additional notes from last race:
-3 drivers finished where they were projected (Denny Hamlin 2nd, Christopher Bell 6th & Erik Jones 29th)
-13 of the 37 drivers finished within 3 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-21 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-10 of the projected Top 14 drivers finished in the Top 14
Notes from all point race projections this year (23 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 39 of 862, 4.52%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 367 of 862, 42.58%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 334 of 862, 38.75%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 23, 13.04%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 114 of 230, 49.57%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Bubba Wallace
Disappointment: Kyle Busch
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 34th -33 |
| 2. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 26th -24 |
| 3. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 18th -15 |
| 4. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 5th -1 |
| 5. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 9th -4 |
| 6. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 1st +5 |
| 7. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 35th -28 |
| 8. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 24th -16 |
| 9. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 6th +3 |
| 10. | 22 | Joey Logano | 33rd -23 |
| 11. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 15th -4 |
| 12. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 8th +4 |
| 13. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 10th +3 |
| 14. | 24 | William Byron | 2nd +12 |
| 15. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 25th -10 |
| 16. | 43 | Erik Jones | 16th +0 |
| 17. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 27th -10 |
| 18. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 3rd +15 |
| 19. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 17th +2 |
| 20. | 71 | Zane Smith | 7th +13 |
| 21. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 32nd -11 |
| 22. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 28th -6 |
| 23. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 31st -8 |
| 24. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 29th -5 |
| 25. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 13th +12 |
| 26. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 19th +7 |
| 27. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 23rd +4 |
| 28. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 12th +16 |
| 29. | 51 | Justin Haley | 20th +9 |
| 30. | 4 | Josh Berry | 22nd +8 |
| 31. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 36th -5 |
| 32. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 11th +21 |
| 33. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 4th +29 |
| 34. | 15 | Cody Ware | 21st +13 |
| 35. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 30th +5 |
| 36. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 14th +22 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
