Statistical Cup Race Finish Projection: Richmond

This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Fall Richmond race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Richmond (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.

Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 32nd
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 7th

Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Tyler Reddick 2nd)
-6 of the 39 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-21 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-4 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished in the Top 8

Notes from all point race projections this year (22 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 36 of 825, 4.36%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 346 of 825, 41.94%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 323 of 825, 39.15%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 22, 13.64%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 109 of 220, 49.55%

Notable results this week

Winner: Martin Truex Jr.
One to Watch: Josh Berry
Disappointment: Austin Cindric

Martin Truex Jr. won the last Richmond race before the Next Gen Car (2021 Fall). This was his last win here, but that will change this weekend according to the stats. Photo by Sean Gardner — Getty Images

*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.