This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Fall Richmond race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Richmond (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 32nd
Last weeks winner: Kyle Larson
Projected Finish: 7th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Tyler Reddick 2nd)
-6 of the 39 drivers finished within 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-11 of the 39 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-21 of the 39 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-4 of the projected Top 8 drivers finished in the Top 8
Notes from all point race projections this year (22 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 36 of 825, 4.36%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 346 of 825, 41.94%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 323 of 825, 39.15%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 22, 13.64%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 109 of 220, 49.55%
Notable results this week
Winner: Martin Truex Jr.
One to Watch: Josh Berry
Disappointment: Austin Cindric
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 37th -36 |
| 2. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 2nd +0 |
| 3. | 4 | Josh Berry | 14th -11 |
| 4. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 18th -14 |
| 5. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 9th -4 |
| 6. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 6th +0 |
| 7. | 22 | Joey Logano | 19th -12 |
| 8. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 7th +1 |
| 9. | 24 | William Byron | 13th -4 |
| 10. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 4th +6 |
| 11. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 28th -17 |
| 12. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 11th +1 |
| 13. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 3rd +10 |
| 14. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 12th +2 |
| 15. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 16th -1 |
| 16. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 5th +11 |
| 17. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 22nd -5 |
| 18. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 1st +17 |
| 19. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 21st -2 |
| 20. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 25th -5 |
| 21. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 10th +11 |
| 22. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 17th +5 |
| 23. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 15th +8 |
| 24. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 20th +4 |
| 25. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 8th +17 |
| 26. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 34th -8 |
| 27. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 24th +3 |
| 28. | 15 | Riley Herbst | 33rd -5 |
| 29. | 43 | Erik Jones | 29th +0 |
| 30. | 71 | Zane Smith | 23rd +7 |
| 31. | 51 | Justin Haley | 27th +4 |
| 32. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 31st +1 |
| 33. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 36th -3 |
| 34. | 66 | Parker Retzlaff | 35th -1 |
| 35. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 32nd +3 |
| 36. | 16 | Ty Dillon | 26th +10 |
| 37. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 30th +7 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
