The first round of the NASCAR Cup series playoffs are now over. Somewhat surprisingly, Stewart-Haas Racing still has a driver with a chance to win the title in their final season of existence. Chase Briscoe is that driver. What are Chase Briscoe’s chances for winning a championship?
Many might want to simply write off the possibility of Stewart-Haas winning a championship in their final season of competition. After all, Briscoe only qualified for the playoffs by way of winning the very last regular season race at Darlington. Furthermore, many experts and analysts looked for Briscoe to be eliminated during the first round. Finally, Briscoe’s win at Darlington a few weeks ago was Stewart-Haas Racing’s first win since Harvick’s final career win at Richmond in 2022.
Imagine the story where Briscoe gives Stewart-Haas a third championship in their final season! This seems like a distant fairy tale type of possibility. Kevin Harvick wasn’t even able to win a single race in his final season. Still, being both the author of this text and a Stewart-Haas fan, I think it’s something worth considering. It’s been a rough year both personally and professionally, so I’m going to hope it can end up being a great year as a Stewart-Haas fan. One has to stay positive.
Qualitatively Speaking What are Chase Briscoe’s Chances?
First of all, we know that Chase Briscoe can win in the next gen car at Phoenix. Phoenix Raceway is the track where the championship race is currently held. Briscoe won the first next gen race at Phoenix back in the spring of 2022. The bigger question is can he pull off some Kevin Harvick type of “Closer” magic to get to the final round.
Personally, I feel like he may be in the perfect position to pull this off. Briscoe has absolutely nothing to lose. He is currently flying under the championship radar. Also, this team will no longer exist at the end of the season. Briscoe already knows where he is headed next season. He can go all in, much the way he did at the end of the Darlington regular season finale. Finally, when it comes to qualitative aspects, he definitely has the confidence to pull it off.
On Track Performance (Round of 12)
The round of 12 consists of races at Kansas, Talladega, and the Charlotte Roval. Talladega stands out as the wild card of this upcoming round. In the next gen races at Talladega, Briscoe has finished 37th, 10th, 4th, 13th, and 12th. As long as he avoids “the big one” and stays out of trouble, I would expect Briscoe to have a top 15 finish. Given that this is Talladega we are talking about, that can’t really be taken for granted.
Meanwhile, Briscoe hasn’t done as well in the next gen races at Kansas Speedway. In these races, Briscoe has finished 24th, 13th, 32nd, 19th, and 21st. If there is a silver lining here, then it would have to be that Briscoe tends to perform better in the second Kansas race of the season. Other than that and based on previous performance, Kansas looks like it could be the toughest race of this round for Briscoe.
Finally, there is the cut off race at the Roval. In the two next gen races at the Roval, Briscoe has finished 9th and 28th. Given his recent performance at Watkins Glen, where Briscoe scored more points than all other playoff drivers and ultimately finished 6th, one has to feel good about his chances for a good finish here.
On Track Performance (Round of 8)
The round of 8 consists of races at Las Vegas, Homestead, and Martinsville. At Las Vegas races during the next gen era, Briscoe has finished 35th, 4th, 28th, 33rd, and 21st. Much like Kansas in the round of 12, this D-shaped 1.5 mile track could be Briscoe’s toughest challenge in the round of 8. Still, it is good to see a top 5 in those finishes.
There have only been two total next gen races at Homestead. At Homestead in the next gen car, Briscoe has finished 36th and 17th. There’s not a lot of data to go on at Homestead for Briscoe. Still, what data exists doesn’t look great. Combine that with his next gen performance at Las Vegas, and Briscoe could be headed to Martinsville in a must win situation.
If Briscoe makes it to the round of 8 and is in a must win situation at the cut off race, he will be happy that said cut off race is held at Martinsville. During the next gen era, Martinsville has consistently been a strong track for Briscoe and Stewart-Haas Racing in general. In the five previous next gen races there, Briscoe has finished 9th, 9th, 5th, 4th, and 10th. That’s an average finish of 7.4. When it comes to playoff tracks, Martinsville is quantitatively Briscoe’s best. (The only one that comes close is the championship track at Phoenix. In the next gen races at Phoenix, Briscoe has finished 1st, 4th, 7th, 24th, and 9th.)
The Ever Important Momentum
With this format, momentum has become increasingly important. As Briscoe himself noted in the video shared earlier in this article, the timing of a team hitting their stride is of the utmost importance. These next gen cars are too similar. Ergo, when a team hits on something that gives them the slightest of an advantage, they’ll hold that slight advantage for a short period of time.
The Stewart-Haas Racing #14 Dark Horse Mustang seems to be hitting its stride at exactly the right time. Briscoe won the regular series finale at Darlington to make the playoffs. He followed that up with a wrecked car in Atlanta. Still, he climbed up out of that hole. He scored the most points of any playoff driver at Watkins Glen and finished 6th. Then he maintained his spot above the cut line with an 8th place finish at Bristol.
Whether people want to admit it or not, Stewart-Haas Racing could end their time in NASCAR by winning another cup series championship. I could even see Briscoe, in Harvick-esque fashion, winning their last two cup races to pull off the title run.
What a story that would be?!
