Clinching Scenarios: Cup Series – Watkins Glen

Last week we got to see the first Cup driver clinch their spot in the Round of 12 as Joey Logano won at Atlanta. Now there are just two races before the playoff field is cut to 12 and this week is another wildcard track in Watkins Glen. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Sunday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Round of 12. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Joey Logano

• • • Clinched based on win at Atlanta

2) Ryan Blaney

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 51+ points more than Christopher Bell
      • 44+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 44+ points more than William Byron
      • 38+ points more than Alex Bowman
      • 38+ points more than Austin Cindric
      • 35+ points more than Chase Elliott
      • 33+ points more than Daniel Suarez
      • 26+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 13+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 12+ points more than Ty Gibbs
      • 11+ points more than Brad Keselowski
      • Be within 4 points of Harrison Burton
      • Be within 7 points of Martin Truex Jr.
      • Be within 9 points of Chase Briscoe
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

3) Christopher Bell

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 49+ points more than Tyler Reddick
      • 49+ points more than William Byron
      • 43+ points more than Alex Bowman
      • 43+ points more than Austin Cindric
      • 40+ points more than Chase Elliott
      • 38+ points more than Daniel Suarez
      • 31+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 18+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 17+ points more than Ty Gibbs
      • 16+ points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 1+ points more than Harrison Burton
      • Be within 2 points of Martin Truex Jr.
      • Be within 4 points of Chase Briscoe
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

4) Tyler Reddick

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 50+ points more than Alex Bowman
      • 50+ points more than Austin Cindric
      • 47+ points more than Chase Elliott
      • 45+ points more than Daniel Suarez
      • 38+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 25+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 24+ points more than Ty Gibbs
      • 23+ points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 8+ points more than Harrison Burton
      • 5+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 3+ points more than Chase Briscoe
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

5) William Byron

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 50+ points more than Alex Bowman
      • 50+ points more than Austin Cindric
      • 47+ points more than Chase Elliott
      • 45+ points more than Daniel Suarez
      • 38+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 25+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 24+ points more than Ty Gibbs
      • 23+ points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 8+ points more than Harrison Burton
      • 5+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 3+ points more than Chase Briscoe
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

6) Alex Bowman

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 53+ points more than Chase Elliott
      • 51+ points more than Daniel Suarez
      • 44+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 31+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 30+ points more than Ty Gibbs
      • 29+ points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 14+ points more than Harrison Burton
      • 11+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 9+ points more than Chase Briscoe
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

7) Austin Cindric

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 53+ points more than Chase Elliott
      • 51+ points more than Daniel Suarez
      • 44+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 31+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 30+ points more than Ty Gibbs
      • 29+ points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 14+ points more than Harrison Burton
      • 11+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 9+ points more than Chase Briscoe
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

8) Chase Elliott

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 54+ points more than Daniel Suarez
      • 47+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 34+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 33+ points more than Ty Gibbs
      • 32+ points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 17+ points more than Harrison Burton
      • 14+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 12+ points more than Chase Briscoe
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

9) Daniel Suarez

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 49+ points more than Kyle Larson
      • 36+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 35+ points more than Ty Gibbs
      • 34+ points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 19+ points more than Harrison Burton
      • 16+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 14+ points more than Chase Briscoe
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

10) Kyle Larson

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 43+ points more than Denny Hamlin
      • 42+ points more than Ty Gibbs
      • 41+ points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 26+ points more than Harrison Burton
      • 23+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 21+ points more than Chase Briscoe
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

11) Denny Hamlin

• • • Driver NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 54+ points more than Ty Gibbs
      • 53+ points more than Brad Keselowski
      • 39+ points more than Harrison Burton
      • 36+ points more than Martin Truex Jr.
      • 34+ points more than Chase Briscoe
    • Driver mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch

12) Ty Gibbs

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

13) Brad Keselowski

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

14) Harrison Burton

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

15) Martin Truex Jr.

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

16) Chase Briscoe

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

Owner Points Clinching Scenarios

1) Team Penkse No.22

• • • Clinched based on win at Atlanta

2) Team Penske No.12

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 51+ points more than the No.20
      • 44+ points more than the No.24
      • 39+ points more than the No.45
      • 38+ points more than the No.48
      • 38+ points more than the No.2
      • 35+ points more than the No.9
      • 33+ points more than the No.99
      • 31+ points more than the No.5
      • 13+ points more than the No.11
      • 12+ points more than the No.54
      • 11+ points more than the No.6
      • Be within 4 points of the No.21
      • Be within 7 points of the No.19
      • Be within 9 points of the No.14
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

3) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 49+ points more than the No.24
      • 44+ points more than the No.45
      • 43+ points more than the No.48
      • 43+ points more than the No.2
      • 40+ points more than the No.9
      • 38+ points more than the No.99
      • 33+ points more than the No.5
      • 18+ points more than the No.11
      • 17+ points more than the No.54
      • 16+ points more than the No.6
      • 1+ points more than the No.21
      • Be within 2 points of the No.19
      • Be within 4 points of the No.14
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

4) Hendrick Motorsports No.24

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 51+ points more than the No.45
      • 50+ points more than the No.48
      • 50+ points more than the No.2
      • 47+ points more than the No.9
      • 45+ points more than the No.99
      • 43+ points more than the No.5
      • 25+ points more than the No.11
      • 24+ points more than the No.54
      • 23+ points more than the No.6
      • 8+ points more than the No.21
      • 5+ points more than the No.19
      • 3+ points more than the No.14
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

5) 23XI Racing No.45

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 52+ points more than the No.9
      • 50+ points more than the No.99
      • 48+ points more than the No.5
      • 30+ points more than the No.11
      • 29+ points more than the No.54
      • 28+ points more than the No.6
      • 13+ points more than the No.21
      • 10+ points more than the No.19
      • 8+ points more than the No.14
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

6) Hendrick Motorsports No.48

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 53+ points more than the No.9
      • 51+ points more than the No.99
      • 49+ points more than the No.5
      • 31+ points more than the No.11
      • 30+ points more than the No.54
      • 29+ points more than the No.6
      • 14+ points more than the No.21
      • 11+ points more than the No.19
      • 9+ points more than the No.14
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

7) Team Penske No.2

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 53+ points more than the No.9
      • 51+ points more than the No.99
      • 49+ points more than the No.5
      • 31+ points more than the No.11
      • 30+ points more than the No.54
      • 29+ points more than the No.6
      • 14+ points more than the No.21
      • 11+ points more than the No.19
      • 9+ points more than the No.14
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

8) Hendrick Motorsports No.9

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 54+ points more than the No.99
      • 52+ points more than the No.5
      • 34+ points more than the No.11
      • 33+ points more than the No.54
      • 32+ points more than the No.6
      • 17+ points more than the No.21
      • 14+ points more than the No.19
      • 12+ points more than the No.14
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

9) Trackhouse Racing No.99

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 54+ points more than the No.5
      • 36+ points more than the No.11
      • 35+ points more than the No.54
      • 34+ points more than the No.6
      • 19+ points more than the No.21
      • 16+ points more than the No.19
      • 14+ points more than the No.14
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

10) Hendrick Motorsports No.5

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 38+ points more than the No.11
      • 37+ points more than the No.54
      • 36+ points more than the No.6
      • 21+ points more than the No.21
      • 18+ points more than the No.19
      • 16+ points more than the No.14
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Needs 5* of the scenarios above

11) Joe Gibbs Racing No.11

• • • Owner NOT mentioned below wins: Needs 5 of the following scenarios
      • 54+ points more than the No.54
      • 53+ points more than the No.6
      • 39+ points more than the No.21
      • 36+ points more than the No.19
      • 34+ points more than the No.14
    • Owner mentioned above wins: Can’t Clinch

12) Joe Gibbs Racing No.54

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

13) RFK Racing No.6

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

14) Wood Brothers Racing No.21

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

15) Joe Gibbs Racing No.19

• • • Only way to clinch is to win

16) Stewart-Haas Racing No.14

• • • Only way to clinch is to win