Clinching Scenarios: Xfinity Series – Bristol

Last week at Watkins Glen we got to see Connor Zilisch win his first career Xfinity race, but it was in his first start and with a team that has not competed in every race. However, A.J. Allmendinger and Sheldon Creed did clinch their spots in the driver and owner playoffs. Now we go to the season finale, Bristol, where the points are spread out near the cutlines, but that doesn’t change the fact that some spots will be filled based on points. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Friday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Playoffs. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Regular Season Points Championship Clinching Scenarios

1) Justin Allgaier
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st (2), 2nd (2), 3rd

• • • Needs the following scenario: Needs 18 points (19th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs the following scenario
      • Be within 42 points of Cole Custer

2) Cole Custer
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st, 2nd (3), 3rd (2)

• • • Needs the following scenario:
      • 44+ points more than Justin Allgaier

Driver Playoff Spot Clinching Scenarios

11) Parker Kligerman
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Clinched
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Needs 14 points (23rd place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs the following scenario
      • Be within 41 points of Sammy Smith

12) Sammy Smith
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 3rd (2), 4th, 5th (2)

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 13 points (24th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
      • 43+ points more than Parker Kligerman
      • Be within 42 points of Ryan Sieg
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Needs 1* of the scenarios above if Sieg wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs both of the scenarios above if any eligible driver below Sieg in points wins

13) Ryan Sieg
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th (2)

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs the following scenario
      • 43+ points more than Sammy Smith
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Must Win to clinch spot

Owner Regular Season Points Championship Clinching Scenarios

1) JR Motorsports No.7
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st (2), 2nd (2), 3rd

• • • Needs the following scenario: Needs 34 points (3rd place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs both of the following scenarios
      • Be within 26 points of the No.20
      • Be within 42 points of the No.00

2) Joe Gibbs Racing No.20
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st (7)

• • • Needs both of the following scenarios:
      • 27+ points more than the No.7
      • Be 16 within points of the No.00

3) Stewart-Haas Racing No.00
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 1st, 2nd (3), 3rd (2)

• • • Needs both of the following scenarios:
      • 44+ points more than the No.7
      • 17+ points more than the No.20

Owner Playoff Spot Clinching Scenarios

12) Big Machine Racing No.48
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 14 points (23rd place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs the following scenario
      • Be within 41 points of the No.8
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Cannot clinch spot

13) JR Motorsports No.8
Tiebreaker/Best finishes this year: 3rd (2), 4th, 5th (2)

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs the following scenario*
      • 43+ points more than the No.48
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Must Win to clinch spot