Clinching Scenarios: Xfinity Series – Watkins Glen

There are just two races left in the Xfinity Series regular season and no driver has clinched a spot on points…. yet. There are a few drivers who have a chance to do that this weekend, but of course the Road Course in Watkins Glen leaves the real possibility that someone clinches based on a win as well. Below are the scenarios in which no matter what happens in the race Saturday, if the scenario happens then the ticket is punched to the Playoffs. The only thing that can make a scenario change is if the finishing order changes the tie breaker, but still that only changes some scenarios by 1 point.
P.s. Obviously if a driver wins the race then they are in the next round, but that’s a boring and simple scenario to figure out, so only must win scenarios are mentioned.

*Does not include winning driver/owner scenario

Driver Regular Season Points Championship Clinching Scenarios

1) Justin Allgaier

• • • Needs the following scenario: Needs all 3 of the following scenarios
      • 27+ points more than Cole Custer
      • Be within 6 points of Chandler Smith
      • Be within 10 points of Austin Hill

Driver Playoff Spot Clinching Scenarios

9) A.J. Allmendinger

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 11 points (26th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
      • 35+ points more than Sheldon Creed
      • Be within 14 points of Parker Kligerman
      • Be within 44 points of Sammy Smith
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Needs 41 points (2nd place finish + 6 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2 of the scenarios above

10) Sheldon Creed

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs 32 points (5th place finish)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 1* of the following scenarios
      • 7+ points more than Parker Kligerman
      • Be within 23 points of Sammy Smith
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Needs both of the scenarios above

11) Parker Kligerman

• • • Eligible driver below cut doesn’t win: Needs the following scenario*
      • 26+ points more than Sammy Smith
    • Eligible driver below cut wins: Can’t Clinch

12+) All other Playoff eligible drivers without a win

• • • Must win to clinch a Playoff spot

Owner Regular Season Points Championship Clinching Scenarios

1) JR Motorsports No.7

• • • Needs the following scenario: Needs all 4 of the following scenarios
      • 50+ points more than the No.20
      • 27+ points more than the No.00
      • 15+ points more than the No.21
      • Be within 6 points of the No.81

Owner Playoff Spot Clinching Scenarios

10) Kaulig Racing No.16

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs 41 points (2nd place finish + 6 Stage Pts)
    • -OR-
    • Needs 2* of the following scenarios
      • 35+ points more than the No.18
      • Be within 14 points of the No.48
      • Be within 44 points of the No.8
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Needs 2* of the scenarios above if the No.8 wins
    • -OR-
    • Needs all 3 of the scenarios above if any eligible owner below the No.8 in points wins

11) Joe Gibbs Racing No.18

• • • Eligible owner below cut doesn’t win: Needs all 3* of the following scenarios
      • 7+ points more than the No.48
      • Be within 23 points of the No.8
      • Be withing 42 points of the No.19
    • Eligible owner below cut wins: Can’t Clinch

12+) All other Playoff eligible owners without a win

• • • Must win to clinch a Playoff spot