Should the Bristol Night Race be considered one of NASCAR’s crown jewels? There is an argument to be made, as many drivers express a desire to win this race similar to the crown jewel events. Bristol Motor Speedway clearly holds a special place in the hearts of NASCAR fans. For now, the Bristol Night Race will simply have to settle being the first elimination race of the playoffs. After two wild cards kicked off the Round of 16, the schedule does not lighten up for the playoff drivers. Not only is Bristol usually a place where chaos can reign supreme, the spring race featured heavy tire wear. The big question heading into this weekend will be if the tires will repeat that performance.
Per Goodyear, the same tire compound will be utilized for the Bristol Night Race as was used in the spring. While that could mean the racing should be the same, the cooler weather was said to be contributing factor for the tire wear. Although, Goodyear conducted a tire test where the tires performed similarly to what teams saw in the spring. So at this point, who really knows what to expect this weekend? For the playoff drivers, that is a daunting mystery that they will look to solve immediately. Honestly, it might give drivers with non-playoff teammates an edge. Those drivers could use their teammates as guinea pigs to quickly figure out how Saturday night will play out. With four eliminations on the line, who are the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the Bristol Night Race?
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Clinching Scenarios, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Martin Truex Jr
It certainly feels as if Martin Truex Jr is ready for the season to be done. After being battered around the past two weeks, Truex sounds over it on his radio. Granted, 2024 has been a frustrating season for the 19 team. Not since Pocono has Truex finished inside the Top-10. In fact, Truex’s 20th at Watkins Glen is his best finish since the Tricky Triangle. Poor speed, bad luck, and other drivers wrecking into him have spoiled Truex’s retirement season. At this point, the likelihood of a win seems farfetched.
Looking back at the spring Bristol race, Martin Truex Jr demonstrated his veteran savvy. Once the tire wear was known, the battle of attrition favored the experienced drivers. Although Denny Hamlin won the race, Truex was right there to challenge him over the final few laps. If not for heavy lapped traffic, there is a good possibility that Truex could have prevailed in the spring. Alas, Truex and the 19 team had to settle for second.
Heading into the Bristol Night Race, Truex sits 14 points below the cutline. Certainly, that is not an impossible deficit to overcome. However, Truex will have to right the ship from his downward spiral over the past couple of months. If this race turns into spring Bristol, then Truex has a great shout of pointing (or winning) his way to the Round of 12. However, the luck has not been on Truex’s side lately.
Brad Keselowski
Similar to Martin Truex Jr, Brad Keselowski’s veteran ability shined the last time the Cup Series was at Bristol. Bringing his 6 car home in third, Keselowski will need to replicate that performance if he is to advance in the playoffs. While Watkins Glen was an expected hurdle for Keselowski in this round, his struggles at Atlanta were certainly a surprise. Between the two, he enters Bristol 12 points below the cutline. What will be key for Keselowski’s playoff chances is a solid qualifying effort. Starting in the Top-10 could be what ultimately determines Keselowski’s playoff fate.
Especially as an owner/driver, Bristol Motor Speedway has been great for Brad Keselowski. His average finish (on the pavement) at Bristol in the NextGen era is 8th. Keselowski’s teammate, Chris Buescher, picked up the Bristol Night Race win back in 2022. Remember, Keselowski looked to be the RFK driver to win that race until a flat tire spoiled his chances. Either way, RFK Racing has shown great speed at Bristol. Although the first two races in this round have not gone his way, expect Brad Keselowski to go down swinging this weekend. He is certainly one to watch for the cutline battle as the races progresses throughout the evening.
Daniel Suarez
While some would not have expected Daniel Suarez to be sitting 36 points above the cutline heading into Bristol, it should not come as a complete shock. Atlanta Motor Speedway’s new configuration has been kind to Suarez. Meanwhile, Suarez usually is a solid road racer. Especially considering how poorly the playoffs have gone for other drivers, Suarez sitting pretty comfortably right now is almost expected. Although he has a decent cushion, no one can feel too safe heading into the Last Great Coliseum.
Since his departure from Stewart-Haas Racing in 2019, Daniel Suarez has failed to finish inside the Top-15 at Bristol. In the spring race, Suarez managed to bring home the 99 in 18th and 2 laps down. Based on what he has done so far this round, that should be enough to keep him above the cutline. However, the potential for extreme tire wear might be an issue. Anything that can shuffle a driver back to the mid-pack can spell doom for a playoff driver. As for Suarez, his ability to handle the wear this spring left a bit to be desired. Although he might only need a solid day, Daniel Suarez could be one of the “safer” drivers who you will need to keep track of over the 500 laps.
Corey LaJoie
The only non-playoff driver this week, Corey LaJoie enters the Bristol Night Race will momentum. Over the past 3 races, LaJoie has finished inside the Top-15. Plus, he has picked up his first non-superspeedway and road course Top-10 in his career. For a driver who lost his current ride, that desire to prove himself (and job audition) has pushed LaJoie to his best 3-race stretch in his Cup career. Based on the rumors, he will have to work hard to get the most of his 2025 equipment.
Now, Corey LaJoie’s recent good showings are not without the usually chicanery that accompanies the Stacking Pennies host. Last week, LaJoie pinballed around in the bus stop on Lap 1 to bring out a caution. His actions led to damage for numerous playoffs drivers, as well as Kyle Busch. Last year in this race, LaJoie kicked off a wreck that eliminated Joey Logano from the playoffs. Based on his history, Corey LaJoie could be one of the more impactful drivers for the playoffs come Saturday. Also, Kyle Busch has yet to get his revenge on LaJoie after Pocono (and now Watkins Glen). What track would be better to serve some comeuppance than Bristol?
Kyle Larson
Other than Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson would have to be considered the favorite for the Bristol Night Race. Currently riding a streak of 4 Top-5s at Bristol, Larson will look to regain momentum for the Round of 12. Obviously, Larson cannot overlook Bristol as an elimination race. His wreck at Atlanta severely hurt him in the points. Although a 12th at Watkins Glen was better than most playoff drivers, Larson only enters Bristol 26 points above the cutline. Not only that, but Larson only has one Top-10 since Richmond.
Despite the potential danger, Kyle Larson should be able to navigate Bristol well enough to move through to the Round of 12. In the spring, Larson was the last car to finish on the lead lap. If this turns into another tire spectacle, Larson should be ready to handle it. The main question for Larson this weekend is whether he can pick up the win. Getting win 5 in a season has been a bit tough for Larson. Other than his remarkable 2021 season, Larson has failed to surpass 4 wins. Bristol could mark that achievement for Larson, as he continues his path to the championship.
One more thing to note: remember the 5 team did win the regular season owners championship. If disaster strikes Larson, the 5 team could still be in the playoffs.
Critical Path Security is a cyber security firm protecting clients in the United States and the world beyond. Founded in 2017, they are as dedicated as ever to providing coverage for their clients in numerous industries. Please give them a follow (X, Facebook, LinkedIn) and thank them for their weekly sponsorship of the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch.
