After starting the playoffs with a superspeedway, the NASCAR Cup Series will head to a road course during this first round. Watkins Glen joined Atlanta as two summer dates that got pushed into the first round of the playoffs due to the Olympics. In a one-off, the New York road course will be another wild card for the playoff drivers. Only Joey Logano can truly relax out of those 16 drivers, as his Atlanta win clinched his Round of 12 spot. Meanwhile, the remaining 12 drivers will duke it out win or help point their way to the next round. However, the big hurdle for the playoff competitors will be the differing strategies. At least 23 of the 38 competitors will be only hunting the win. Of those 38 competitors, who will be this week’s Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the Go Bowling at The Glen?
As mentioned above, the big question heading into this weekend is which playoffs drivers will go for points or the win. NASCAR reimplemented the stage breaks after William Byron’s win here last year. This makes it extremely difficult to go for stage points and also the win, especially for Stage 2. The high-speed road course creates a difficult environment to pit under the stage breaks rather than 2-3 laps prior. On the flip side, more natural cautions are common at The Glen, due to how fast and narrow the track is. Which strategy makes the most sense for these playoff drivers? In theory, those near the cutline would look to maximize points while others will primarily look to win the race. It is definitely worth highlighting, as well as the five drivers selected for this week’s 5 Drivers.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Clinching Scenarios, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Juan Pablo Montoya
Making his first NASCAR start since 2014, Juan Pablo Montoya will return to the Cup Series for 23XI Racing. In the 50 car, Montoya becomes the third driver to pilot the Toyota’s team third entry. Montoya’s return was a bit unexpected, as the Colombian driver has been distant from his former series since his departure. However, the efforts of 23XI Racing (and Mobil1) has brought back the international star. While Montoya might be rusty, there is not a better track for former Cup winner to drive.
Watkins Glen was easily Juan Pablo Montoya’s best track during his tenure in NASCAR. Obviously, one of Montoya’s two wins came in New York. Outside of the line, Montoya’s average finish of 13.6 was his career best for any track. If you remove his two DNFs, that stat improves to an impressive 4.6. In all but two of his Watkins Glen start, Montoya led at least one lap. When learning a new car, it is wise to place a driver into his most comfortable place.
Now, it is highly doubtful that Montoya will be competing for the win on Sunday. Granted, the same would have been said about Shane van Gisbergen before Chicago. Either way, the return of Montoya is plenty reason to be watchful of that 50 car Sunday.
William Byron
Last year, Watkins Glen was the race where William Byron turned around his summer slump. A dominating victory helped lead Byron into the playoffs with momentum, helping him advance to the Championship Four. This season, Watkins Glen might have to serve a similar purpose. Although Atlanta saw a Top-10 for the 24 team, Byron’s last 6 races has shown great inconsistency. 2 Top-10s are sprinkled among 3 finishes outside the Top-25. Bad luck has played a part in those poor results, but Byron has also not been running as strongly as he did to start 2024.
Although last year’s Go Bowling at The Glen represented William Byron’s first road course win, he followed it up with a win at COTA. If not for damage early at Sonoma, Byron would enter Watkins Glen on a streak of 5 straight Top-10s at road courses. That developmental on these types of tracks will be important Sunday. With Watkins Glen now in the playoffs, a poor performance could help spell trouble heading to Bristol. While Byron sits in a comfortable position 33 points above the cutline, another Sonoma-esque race could see a pressure-filled Bristol. With that said, Byron should be a contender for the win, if he does not point race in the Go Bowling at The Glen.
Zane Smith
Officially out of known ride for 2025, Zane Smith is finishing out 2024 while searching for his next ride. While rumors hint at a reunion with Front Row Motorsports, there are also rumblings that Ford is displeased with Smith for leaving the manufacturer. Aside from the silly season noise, Smith faces some adversity with only his second national series start at Watkins Glen. His only start at the New York road course came back in 2021 in the Truck Series where he finished sixth.
In his Cup debut at The Glen, Smith will look to improve upon his decent road course stats. Through 5 starts on road courses, Smith has an average finish of 23.2 with a best finish of 16th (Sonoma). However, every road course this season has seen Smith with a Top-20. He will look to continue that streak on Sunday.
Not only has Smith been solid on the road courses, his recent stretch of races has seen improvement from his poor start. Remember, the early portions of this season saw Smith run last in points. Over the past 9 races, Smith has 5 Top-20s with 2 more finishes better than 23rd. Based on this, expect Zane Smith to contend for another Top-20. Perhaps the 71 car could feature in the Top-10.
AJ Allmendinger
Outside of the two superspeedways, the road courses provide the most likely opportunity for a non-playoff driver to win. This includes some part time drivers who step into rides for these weekends. For Watkins Glen, Kaulig Racing is entering two aces into the field for their trophy hunting. Shane van Giserbergen will be piloting the 16 entry. Meanwhile, AJ Allmendinger will step into Kaulig’s third entry for the weekend. After last year’s performance at the ROVAL, there is no reason to sleep on Allmendinger on Sunday.
Similar to Juan Pablo Montoya, AJ Alllmendinger has been a masterclass at Watkins Glen. Not only during his first stint in the Cup Series, but also running strongly in the NextGen. In his 2 NextGen starts, Allmendinger finished inside the Top-5. Arguably, Allmendinger had a race winning car last year. However, the inability to pass kept him in the back-half of the Top-5. This Sunday, Allmendinger will look to maintain his form on the road courses this season. COTA and Sonoma each saw a sixth place finish for Allmendinger. If you are looking for a non-playoff driver to win, AJ Allmendinger is not a bad shout.
Michael McDowell
Other than Shane van Gisbergen, the favorite non-playoff driver to win this weekend is Michael McDowell. Last year, McDowell won on a road course (Indy GP) to lock himself into the playoffs. Now, the Front Row driver will look to play spoiler for the 15 playoff drivers looking to clinch their way to the Round of 12. Front Row has flashed more speed this year with their alliance with Team Penske (and Tier One status with Ford). Plus, each of McDowell’s Top-5s this season have come on road courses.
With that said, Watkins Glen has been McDowell’s sore spot when it comes to road racing. Surprisingly, his average finish is a lowly 26.5 with a single Top-10 in 14 starts. McDowell’s next worse road course is the ROVAL where he holds an average finish of 22.8. To be fair to McDowell, most of his poor finishes at The Glen were the result of poor equipment. He has 6 DNFS, but only one is due to an on-track incident. Instead, McDowell is taken off the track due to mechanical failures, including last year after leading 17 laps. Outside of a couple of races, when McDowell manages to finish the race, he does so in the Top-20. However, he will be looking for more than that on Sunday. For the Go Bowling at The Glen, Michael McDowell will look to pick up potentially his last win with Front Row Motorsports.
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