From arguably the worst race of 2024 to the track that hosted the best one, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to the mid-west this week. Kansas Speedway presents the initial race of the Round of 12. This week, prepare to be inundated with media about the finish to the spring race. Chris Buescher fans might want to stay off the internet until Sunday. Back in the spring, Kyle Larson won the race by .001 seconds over the RFK Racing driver. However, the racing was excellent throughout. Passes for the lead, solid mid-pack action, and strategy all were present. In the NextGen era, Kansas Speedway has become the gem of the schedule. With many fans needing a palette cleanser after Bristol, who will be the Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the Hollywood Casino 400?
As the Round of 12 kicks off, Kansas should be the “normal” race of this round. With a superspeedway and road course following this race, the 12 remaining playoff drivers will look to win to secure their championship hopes. However, Kansas has been a bit of a wild card in the playoffs. A non-playoff driver won the race in 2022. Meanwhile, a late race caution spoiled the win for Denny Hamlin, who dominated that race. This weekend should be no different. Tight racing along with numerous strong contenders sitting outside the playoffs spells a higher likelihood of someone playing spoiler. Could it be one of the 5 drivers below?
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Clinching Scenarios, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Christopher Bell
Kansas Speedway has been home to Toyota dominance in the NextGen era. Except for the spring race earlier this year, every NextGen Kansas winner has been a Toyota. Toyota will look to remain the dominant manufacturer this weekend. Christophe Bell is a great shout to be the TRD driver to pull out the win. Outside of a DNF in 2023, Bell has finished inside the Top-8 in every Kansas race he has finished. Plus, the driver of the 20 has racked up 3 poles at the track since 2022. Bell has managed to find the speed, yet is still looking for his first Kansas win.
Heading into the weekend, Bell is riding in with momentum from the Round of 12. Although he did not win, Bell was the first driver to clinch his spot via points by the end of Stage 1. Over his past 5 races, the 20 team has collected 4 Top-5s with a worst finish of 14th. Consistency has always been the lingering issue with Bell. This season, that seems to have change. However, the lack of consistency has not prevented Bell from making the Championship Four the previous two seasons. Look for Christopher Bell to be a contender for the win this weekend.
Ryan Blaney
It has been boom or bust for Ryan Blaney as of late. Since Daytona, Blaney is either wrecking out or finishing near the front. To be fair to Blaney, the DNFs have been more of wrong place, wrong time rather than Blaney mistakes. Still, the inconsistent results are not what a playoff driver needs in a quest for a championship. For Blaney, he is hoping that the bad luck will be left behind him for the remainder of the season. Ford has been strong since the first Darlington race. After not winning any of the first 12 races, a Ford driver has won 9 of the past 16 races. Blaney will look to make it 10 of the past 17.
For the remainder of the season, Kansas Speedway looks to be the one track where Ryan Blaney (and Team Penske) will struggle. This intermediate has not been kind on the Penske Ford, including the spring race. Blaney finished 12th, but failed to score any stage points and averaged a 17th place running position. While the RFK Fords were quick, Team Penske lagged behind. Ryan Blaney will look to overcome this hurdle, as the remainder of the playoffs play right into his strengths. Will Team Penske be able to make the necessary adjustments for Ryan Blaney (and Joey Logano) to compete for a win? It will certainly be something to watch in the Hollywood Casino 400.
Justin Haley
In a rare mid-season trade, Justin Haley will be starting for a new team this weekend in Kansas. Spire Motorsports and Rick Ware Racing traded drivers, with Corey LaJoie being the other driver involved in the swap. Returning to the team he started his Cup career with, Haley will now pilot the 7 Spire car for the remainder of 2024. Plus, Spire announced that Haley will remain in the 7 for the 2025 season as well. For Haley, this opportunity could bring great opportunities moving forward. With the rumblings surrounding Alex Bowman, the new rumor is that Haley will be Hendrick Motorsports bound in the future.
As for this weekend, it will be noteworthy to see how Justin Haley performs in the 7 car. His performance in the 51 made him a hot commodity in silly season. While he seemingly turned down an opportunity with the Wood Brothers, the move to Spire seems more to do about future plans (and returning to a sentimental team). Now, Spire should be an improvement in equipment for Haley. Carson Hocevar has been a Top-20 machine over the past two months, as well as Corey LaJoie flashing speed over the past few weeks. With Haley behind the wheel, the results should continue (if not improve) for the 7 team. Kansas might be a tough challenge though, as the best finishing Spire car in the spring finished 24th. Still, it will be interesting to see how Haley performs with his new team.
Bubba Wallace
As mentioned earlier, Toyota will be the heavy favorite heading into the weekend. 23XI Racing cannot be ignored in that conversation, as they hold 3 of the 5 NextGen Kansas wins. All 3 of those wins were from the 45 team, with Bubba Wallace collecting one when he subbed in for Kurt Busch in the owners playoff. Now, Wallace will look to play spoiler for the playoff drivers as he heads to one of his better tracks.
Fresh off a third place finish at Bristol, Bubba Wallace will look to use that as momentum to turn around a mediocre stretch. After back-to-back Top-5s around the Olympic break, Wallace has seen 4 finishes outside the Top-15 over the past 6 races. However, he has led at least one lap in 5 of those races. Hence why it is mediocre rather than poor.
Additionally, Wallace also has struggled a bit at Kansas in his last 2 starts. Last year’s playoff race saw an early accident keep Wallace laps down through the end of the race. In the spring, 23XI Racing were surprisingly quiet. Neither Wallace nor Tyler Reddick made much of an impact upfront. For those two, they hope that is a one-off rather than a shift in speed. Until the later is proven, expect to see Bubba Wallace as one of the strongest non-playoff drivers on Sunday.
Ross Chastain
During Stage 1 of the spring race, Ross Chastain looked to be a contender for the win. Throughout that stage, he battled with Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin for the lead. Although he had early speed, the 1 car faded as the race wore on and Chastain found himself on the wrong side of the strategy call. Ultimately, his 19th place finish was not indicative of how strong Chastain was at Kansas. Plus, Chastain has built a nice resume during his Trackhouse career at the intermediate. This spring was the first time he finished outside the Top-15.
Despite missing the playoffs, Chastain has been continuing his consistency. Including Darlington, Chastain is currently in the midst of 5 straight Top-15s. Not only are the results solid, but the 1 car has been seen more near the front during this stretch as well. With this improved performance, throw Chastain’s name into the mix of potential playoff spoiler. Chastain has done that before, notably winning the Championship Race last year at Phoenix. Why not Kansas this weekend? Could Ross Chastain win the Hollywood Casino 400 on Sunday?
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