With the regular season now wrapped up, it is time for the NASCAR Cup Series to enter the playoffs. 16 drivers will kick off the playoffs with a new track for the Round of 16: Atlanta Motor Speedway. The Quaker State 400 has been pushed into the playoffs for this year only, which throws a massive wild card at these drivers right off the bat. With a playoff field full of upsets, this weekend’s Atlanta race can surely be the source of chaos in the playoff ranks. Only a handful of drivers have a point cushion, so the draft will certainly be a huge factor for all of the 16 drivers. How many of those drivers will be featured in this week’s Critical Path Security 5 Drivers to Watch for the Quaker State 400?
Since the playoff field contains 4 drivers who rank outside the Top-16 in points, there is a great chance that the non-playoff field will find a way to pull out wins. Under the new configuration, Atlanta is likely one of the tracks where a non-playoff driver will end up hoisting the trophy. Between Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, and Kyle Busch, it feels that their disappointments from Darlington will lead to a win in Georgia. Sometimes, that is how NASCAR operates. A depressing weekend can lead to the ultimate goal of victory lane. Simply a week late though for those drivers. Obviously, the playoff drivers will take center stage this weekend (and throughout the final 10 races). Still, remember to watch those who were not so lucky to make the playoffs.
If you want a statistical analysis for the week, check out Daniel Smith’s excellent breakdowns in his Outlook, Notable Starts, and (new for this year) historical and current Track Stats articles.
Denny Hamlin
Is the NextGen kryptonite for Denny Hamlin on superspeedways? Since the inception of this current car, Hamlin has failed to win a superspeedway race and only has collected 3 Top-10s in 17 starts. While Daytona and Talladega might be the more alarming sites of this regression, new Atlanta has not been kind to Hamlin. Since the reconfiguration, Hamlin’s best finish was 6th in 2023 while his remaining 4 results were 14th or worse. Usually, Hamlin has found himself getting involved in an incident on track that leads to a finish off the lead lap.
Heading into the playoffs, Hamlin was slapped with a massive penalty that deprived him of his playoff point stash. Due to an error by Toyota with his Bristol win engine, Hamlin was docked 10 playoff points prior to Darlington. When every point can be critical, that could end up hurting Hamlin early in these playoffs. In addition to the Atlanta struggles, Hamlin has been unlucky with his results this season. After starting the year off hot, the 11 car has struggled to find consistent good finishes. That is not due to a lack of speed, as the 11 team is frequently running upfront. However, something usually occurs to spoil a Top-5 (or win). Despite his successful history of superspeedways, the recent luck mixed with the NextGen results could see Hamlin start the playoffs on the wrong foot.
BJ McLeod
It is always great to see LiveFast Motorsports and BJ McLeod on a Cup Series entry list. After picking up a Top-20 finish at Daytona, McLeod is back for this weekend’s action in Atlanta. The 78 will be one of two open cars (NY Racing’s 44 is the other) that will be running in the playoff opener. For McLeod, this will be his second start at Atlanta this year. In the spring, he failed to replicate the moderate success found during his Daytona Duel race. However, he avoided any trouble and brought his car home intact.
While his first two starts of the year did not yield great results, the 19th place finish at Daytona definitely was the right momentum needed heading into this weekend. Although the numerous big ones help slim the field down, McLeod never lost the draft throughout the event. Based on that, it seems that the other Cup drivers trust him enough to utilize him in the draft. However, will McLeod be able to do that this time in Atlanta? Last time at this track, McLeod struggled to keep his 78 car in the draft and that helped him lose laps. If McLeod can keep up this weekend, then another Top-20 could be on deck for the Florida native.
Chase Briscoe
After pulling out the upset win in the Southern 500, Chase Briscoe will look to replicate his 2022 playoff run. Currently, Briscoe is on pace to match his stat line from 2022. That year, Briscoe won Phoenix, then faded to the mid-pack throughout the regular season. However, he turned it on during the playoffs and almost snuck his way into the Championship Four. Using pit strategy and a teammate, Briscoe attempted to steal the win at Martinsville before Christopher Bell ultimately found his way around him. Now, Briscoe will start his path to a championship at a track that does not bode well for him.
The driver who won the initial pole for the newly configured Atlanta Motor Speedway has yet to finish inside the Top-10. To date, his best finish at Atlanta was 15th the same race he sat on pole. His average finish on the drafting version of the track is a measly 21.6. Plus, he is coming off his first DNF at Atlanta in the spring. If Briscoe is going to get his championship hunt off to the right start, then he needs to rewrite his history a bit. One thing he does not need to correct though is his qualifying pace. In 4 of the last 5 races, Briscoe has started inside the Top-10. Briscoe needs to remain upfront in the hopes of staying out of trouble and putting himself in a good points position heading to Watkins Glen.
Alex Bowman
Alex Bowman heads into this weekend on a cold streak. After back-to-back Top-5s with his Chicago win and Pocono, Bowman has failed to place in the Top-15 since. Daytona saw his best result, crossing the stripe in 16th. However, Bowman has been slow in every non-drafting track since Pocono. Other than wrecking out at Indianapolis, his finishes have not been the result of bad luck or wrecking. Instead, the 48 Hendrick Motorsports car has simply been slow. With that lack of speed, the rumor mill is starting to churn about Alex Bowman’s future.
“There’s a reason they haven’t announced any drivers in certain cars yet” – Freddie Kraft
A rumor that has been making the rounds is Bowman out at Hendrick and moving to the #7 car in 2025. pic.twitter.com/DjVsHyAdwl
— BrakeHard (@BrakeHardBlog) September 4, 2024
Now, every rumor always needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Especially from the Door Bumper Clear podcast, not everything that is floated out there is true. When Bowman was asked about this during the Playoff Media Day, he stated that Hendrick Motorsports has told him that his seat is safe.
With that said, usually where there is smoke, some fire is around. Since his back injury last season, Bowman has been struggling to meet the lofty expectations of driving a Hendrick car. While it might be doubtful his 2025 ride depends his playoff run, it might turn 2025 into the prove it year. Silly season rumors are always a good reason to keep an eye out for a driver. During the Quaker State 400 and beyond, it will be something to track whether the rumors are accurate about Bowman’s status with the 48 team.
Joey Logano
Outside of Brad Keselowski, there might not be a driver more excited to see Atlanta Motor Speedway in the playoffs than Joey Logano. When it comes to superspeedways, Logano is one of the best of working the draft and staying out front. Plus, he is known to use late blocks to keep a lead from slipping through his hands. This past spring, Logano led 27 laps early in the race. He looked to be a winning threat before he initiated an incident that collect Chris Buescher coming to the end of Stage 2.
For the Quaker State 400, expect Joey Logano to put forth a great qualifying effort despite the lack of a webbed glove. With the solid early track position, Logano will look to keep the 22 car in front of the field. It would not be surprising to see the Penske driver nab at least one of the stage wins. Atlanta might be Logano’s best (and only) chance to rack up a lot of points and potentially a win. While Ryan Blaney has looked strong this season, Logano’s lone win came via a fuel saving masterclass at Nashville. For a deep playoff run, Logano could use Atlanta as a springboard for the Round of 16. Watch out for an aggressive Logano to attempt to park his car in victory lane by Sunday’s end.
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