This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Fall Atlanta Playoff race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Atlanta (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Denny Hamlin
Finished: 7th
Last weeks winner: Chase Briscoe
Projected Finish: 19th
Additional notes from last race:
-1 driver finished where they were projected (Erik Jones, 24th)
-14 of the 37 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-15 of the 37 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-Only 4 of the 37 drivers finished 20+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 14 drivers finished in the Top 14
Notes from all point race projections this year (26 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 42 of 975, 4.31%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 405 of 975, 41.54%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 391 of 975, 40.1%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 26, 11.54%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 125 of 260, 48.08%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Busch
One to Watch: Austin Cindric
Disappointment: Tyler Reddick
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 7th -6 |
| 2. | 24 | William Byron | 9th -7 |
| 3. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 19th -16 |
| 4. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 10th -6 |
| 5. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 13th -8 |
| 6. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 2nd +4 |
| 7. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 29th -22 |
| 8. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 35th -27 |
| 9. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 8th +1 |
| 10. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 3rd +7 |
| 11. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 36th -25 |
| 12. | 22 | Joey Logano | 1st +11 |
| 13. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 22nd -9 |
| 14. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 17th -3 |
| 15. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 15th +0 |
| 16. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 4th +12 |
| 17. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 38th -21 |
| 18. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 5th +13 |
| 19. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 37th -18 |
| 20. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 11th +9 |
| 21. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 24th -3 |
| 22. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 27th -5 |
| 23. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 14th +9 |
| 24. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 31st -7 |
| 25. | 43 | Erik Jones | 26th -1 |
| 26. | 51 | Justin Haley | 12th +14 |
| 27. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 6th +21 |
| 28. | 44 | J.J. Yeley | 23rd +5 |
| 29. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 33rd -4 |
| 30. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 34th -4 |
| 31. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 16th +15 |
| 32. | 15 | Cody Ware | 30th +2 |
| 33. | 71 | Zane Smith | 21st +12 |
| 34. | 4 | Josh Berry | 28th +6 |
| 35. | 16 | Shane Van Gisbergen | 32nd +3 |
| 36. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 18th +18 |
| 37. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 20th +17 |
| 38. | 78 | B.J. McLeod | 25th +13 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
