This article is a race finish projection for the 2024 Bristol Playoff race. The finishing order below is determined based on the statistics that would be used in the Cup Series Notable Drivers Statistics & Outlook: Bristol (mainly track stats and track style stats), weekend practice speeds (both single lap and multi-lap averages), and qualifying results. There is little opinion on the matter as this is based on mostly statistics, so just because a driver with bad stats is in a good car does not mean he will be bumped up based on the car/team he is with.
Last weeks projected winner: Ross Chastain
Finished: 4th
Last weeks winner: Chris Buescher
Projected Finish: 6th
Additional notes from last race:
-0 drivers finished where they were projected
-2 of the 38 drivers finished withing 1 spot (better or worse) of where they were projected
-12 of the 38 drivers finished within 5 spots (better or worse) of where they were projected
-20 of the 38 drivers finished 10+ spots (better or worse) than they were projected to finish
-8 of the projected Top 15 drivers finished in the Top 15
Notes from all point race projections this year (28 races):
-Drivers to finish where they were projected: 43 of 1,051, 4.09%
-Drivers to finish within 5 spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 429 of 1,051, 40.82%
-Drivers to finish 10+ spots (better/worse) than they were projected: 427 of 1,051, 40.63%
-Correct Winner projections: 3 of 28, 10.71%
-Projected Top 10 finishers to finish Top 10: 133 of 280, 47.50%
Notable results this week
Winner: Kyle Larson
One to Watch: Bubba Wallace
Disappointment: Daniel Suarez
Highlighted = In Driver/Owner Playoff
| Proj. Finish | Number | Driver | Finish/Diff. |
| 1. | 5 | Kyle Larson | 1st +0 |
| 2. | 24 | William Byron | 17th -15 |
| 3. | 9 | Chase Elliott | 2nd +1 |
| 4. | 20 | Christopher Bell | 5th -1 |
| 5. | 11 | Denny Hamlin | 4th +1 |
| 6. | 48 | Alex Bowman | 9th -3 |
| 7. | 12 | Ryan Blaney | 6th +1 |
| 8. | 23 | Bubba Wallace | 3rd +5 |
| 9. | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. | 24th -15 |
| 10. | 54 | Ty Gibbs | 15th -5 |
| 11. | 4 | Josh Berry | 29th -18 |
| 12. | 77 | Carson Hocevar | 18th -6 |
| 13. | 34 | Michael McDowell | 11th +2 |
| 14. | 17 | Chris Buescher | 14th +0 |
| 15. | 1 | Ross Chastain | 10th +5 |
| 16. | 14 | Chase Briscoe | 8th +8 |
| 17. | 6 | Brad Keselowski | 26th -9 |
| 18. | 45 | Tyler Reddick | 20th -2 |
| 19. | 41 | Ryan Preece | 7th +12 |
| 20. | 7 | Corey LaJoie | 36th -16 |
| 21. | 22 | Joey Logano | 28th -7 |
| 22. | 51 | Justin Haley | 22nd +0 |
| 23. | 2 | Austin Cindric | 13th +10 |
| 24. | 42 | John Hunter Nemechek | 33rd -9 |
| 25. | 38 | Todd Gilliland | 32nd -7 |
| 26. | 8 | Kyle Busch | 25th +1 |
| 27. | 99 | Daniel Suarez | 31st -4 |
| 28. | 16 | A.J. Allmendinger | 23rd +5 |
| 29. | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 27th +2 |
| 30. | 10 | Noah Gragson | 12th +18 |
| 31. | 43 | Erik Jones | 30th +1 |
| 32. | 21 | Harrison Burton | 35th -3 |
| 33. | 3 | Austin Dillon | 21st +12 |
| 34. | 31 | Daniel Hemric | 19th +15 |
| 35. | 15 | Kaz Grala | 37th -2 |
| 36. | 71 | Zane Smith | 16th +20 |
| 37. | 66 | Josh Bilicki | 34th +3 |
*This will be updated after the race is over so you can compare how the projection did with the actual finishing order.
